ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Look at how many GFS members plow right into the GRATER. Very similar to it's OP

And look at how many of them initialize Dorian, way too weak.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS through hour 120 is much more active than prior EPS runs. This is not going to end pretty.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/1166067577531056128

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS through hour 120 is much more active than prior EPS runs. This is not going to end pretty.

Active as in more members or stronger?

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS through hour 120 is much more active than prior EPS runs. This is not going to end pretty.

Active as in more members or stronger?

Both but mainly stronger especially for FL

[chris_fit]

The 12Z EPS through hour 120 is much more active than prior EPS runs. This is not going to end pretty.

Active as in more members or stronger?

Both but mainly stronger especially for FL

I remember I used to have a site/link where I could watch those ensembles come in live - can you share that?

[SFLcane]

Nothing on here yet.. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

[beachman80]

Whether it bends west or not, the models are consistent in not making this into a major. While the NHC sees favorable conditions in the bahamas, the big 3 are obviously sniffing something that will prevent this from becoming too strong. I'm sure there are exceptions in recent history where ALL 3 globals underforecasted intensity of a major within 5 days, but I'm sure those examples are in the minority.

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

That's good to hear. Living in Florida, I was starting to get nervous about this. But I guess there's nothing to worry about so that's good.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS says watch out especially S half of FL 9/1-4 and Gulf thereafter

[crm6360]

Whether it bends west or not, the models are consistent in not making this into a major. While the NHC sees favorable conditions in the bahamas, the big 3 are obviously sniffing something that will prevent this from becoming too strong. I'm sure there are exceptions in recent history where ALL 3 globals underforecasted intensity of a major within 5 days, but I'm sure those examples are in the minority.

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

That's good to hear. Living in Florida, I was starting to get nervous about this. But I guess there's nothing to worry about so that's good.

Didn't say to let your guard down, just expect the media to overhype this thing before it has any street cred.

[SFLcane]

12Z EPS says watch out especially S half of FL 9/1-4 and Gulf thereafter

Link?

[caneman]

Whether it bends west or not, the models are consistent in not making this into a major. While the NHC sees favorable conditions in the bahamas, the big 3 are obviously sniffing something that will prevent this from becoming too strong. I'm sure there are exceptions in recent history where ALL 3 globals underforecasted intensity of a major within 5 days, but I'm sure those examples are in the minority.

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

That's good to hear. Living in Florida, I was starting to get nervous about this. But I guess there's nothing to worry about so that's good.

Wise not to trust models 5 days out on strength. Nobody should freak out. However, relying on the big 3 this far out for intensity would be foolish. That isn't the big 3's strength

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS says watch out especially S half of FL 9/1-4 and Gulf thereafter

Link?

No, I have none as this is from as a private/pay site that isn't available.
But very shortly this will have them: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/1166067577531056128

The one that replied pointed out those models have the current intensity lower--they still show about 15-20kt intensification over the next 72 hours.

[MrJames]

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/DFK7Zjx.png

Undeniable west bend there towards FL

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that with those EPS members, most of the strongest members hook left harder in response to the deep layer ridge to the north. May be something to keep an eye on down the road if we make it that far.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z EPS run should be a wake up call that everyone on the Gulf and East coast should be keeping a watchful eye on this storm right now.

[LarryWx]

Using my eyeballs, I roughly estimate 75% of the 51 or so 12Z EPS members have a TD+ and 30% have a H at any point off the SE US coast. These are big upticks.

Mods, please delete this same post that I placed in the discussion thread. Sorry and thanks.

[BobHarlem]

18z early models, even more on Florida than before.