ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

[PTrackerLA]

Hi-res Euro has 996mb at 120 hrs then weakens to well over 1000mb up to landfall. I wonder what the models is seeing for the weakening upon approach.

[chris_fit]

96-168hrs 12z EURO

What does it tell us? Def stronger than previous runs. Def a chance of impacting FL.

[sma10]

12Z Euro 144 cape Canaveral moving nw

Will you be reporting on the ensembles later?

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro 144 cape Canaveral moving nw

Will you be reporting on the ensembles later?

You can find those ensembles here..

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks

[chris_fit]

Stalling at 192?

[crm6360]

Whether it bends west or not, the models are consistent in not making this into a major. While the NHC sees favorable conditions in the bahamas, the big 3 are obviously sniffing something that will prevent this from becoming too strong. I'm sure there are exceptions in recent history where ALL 3 globals underforecasted intensity of a major within 5 days, but I'm sure those examples are in the minority.

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

[ronjon]

8/26 12z model suite update:

12z GFS - degenerates into open wave
12z GFS legacy - 987 mb hurricane into Ft Laud
12z CMC - 997 mb TS into upper keys
12z UKMET - 981 mb hurricane into Miami-Ft Laud
12z HWRF - 1001 mb TS heading for Ft Laud
12z HMON - degenerates into open wave
12z NAVGEM - 981 mb hurricane into WPB-Vero Beach
12z Euro - 1005 mb TS into Melbourne
12z ICON - 983 mb hurricane into the north coast of Cuba

[chris_fit]

EURO says game not over yet.

Back over water!

[jdray]

This EURO run (AUG 26th, 12Z) places a lot of water over central and north Florida with it slowing down like that.

[sma10]

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

Doesn't mean they won't though.

[LarryWx]

Hi-res Euro has 996mb at 120 hrs then weakens to well over 1000mb up to landfall. I wonder what the models is seeing for the weakening upon approach.

The 12Z Euro's relatively weak storm would be great news but I don't believe it because:
- The model has shear all around it under 10 knots the prior 48 hours
- The model has dewpoints of 77+ F all around it for the 48 hours leading to landfall
- It is traveling over SSTs that are very warm and OHC that is high for the prior 48 hours
- Other than flat northern Bahamas, which never have much effect, there's no land interaction the prior 48 hours. It had only grazed E Hispaniola 72 hours earlier.
- There's a high to the north, which if anything is normally conducive to strengthening for a TC traveling underneath it to the W or NW
- It is still pretty small then per this run making it easier to strengthen
- It is moving too quickly to result in much weakening from upwelling

[toad strangler]

Whether it bends west or not, the models are consistent in not making this into a major. While the NHC sees favorable conditions in the bahamas, the big 3 are obviously sniffing something that will prevent this from becoming too strong. I'm sure there are exceptions in recent history where ALL 3 globals underforecasted intensity of a major within 5 days, but I'm sure those examples are in the minority.

Until the globals suggest a major event along the east coast, there is no reason for any met or news agency to hype this. None.

I almost completely ignore intensity this far out. Models aren't good at that yet. So, not sure what you are trying to say. These models are not Crystal Balls. They are tools. There still has to be a good dose of climatology and meteorology involved. The NHC nor any met worth his or her salt does not model hug.

[northjaxpro]

This EURO run (AUG 26th, 12Z) places a lot of water over central and north Florida with it slowing down like that.

Yeah that would cause big problems up into the Saint Johns River and its tributaries potentially with storm surge JD Ray. We could see problems similar to what we saw with Irma here in this area 2 years ago if this path were to play out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unless I'm missing it, I cannot find any evidence of wind shear on the 12z ECMWF causing Dorian's lack of intensification.

[BobHarlem]

Well I don't envy the NHC on this one. Track is looking relatively solid, but the intensity... oh man could that be anywhere.

[toad strangler]

Well I don't envy the NHC on this one. Track is looking relatively solid, but the intensity... oh man could that be anywhere.

Nothing is solid in my mind until and IF Dorian gets by the Greater Antilles with a pulse.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well I don't envy the NHC on this one. Track is looking relatively solid, but the intensity... oh man could that be anywhere.

I will say the NHC has done an outstanding job so far on this one; there was very limited model support for Dorian to be at its current intensity on approach to the islands and the NHC called it correctly.

[chris_fit]

GFS 12z Ensembles

[toad strangler]

Look at how many GFS members plow right into the GRATER. Very similar to it's OP