ATL: DORIAN - Models

[floridasun78]

nobody knows, gotta see how the upper level pattern plays, we will keep see changes and models will keep going back and forth

ture we see alot change in system from now to Friday let not do too much hype wait and see

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF running, initialization looks suspect to me (just a single closed isobar)

[chris_fit]

12Z EURO Running...

[chris_fit]

24hr

[p1nheadlarry]

24hr

https://i.imgur.com/OiK492n.png

Euro came to play ball I see

[Michele B]

FWIW...CMC is now on board.

With which track?

[chris_fit]

48hr

[Hypercane_Kyle]

First run that doesn't kill Dorian in the Caribbean and looks to be going north of Hispaniola.

[chris_fit]

Misses Hispaniola

72hr

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It looks like a major discrepancy regarding track might be 98L (soon-to-be-Erin). ECMWF actually shows 98L becoming a TC, thus might be creating enough of a weakness to be able to draw Dorian north of Hispaniola. GFS doesn't really show 98L becoming anything, so Dorian ends up going into Hispaniola and dying.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro basically splits the gap between Dominican and PR. Maybe grazes E Dominican

[AdamFirst]

Euro shooting the gap into the Mona Passage and north of the big island

[Blown Away]

12z Euro sees Dorian as a player through 72 hours...

[PTrackerLA]

Look out on this run, this is the strongest vortex shown by the Euro on Dorian yet, by a lot.

[Bhuggs]

I smell a recurve or north of Florida on this run

[chris_fit]

96hrs

So Tiny

[Blown Away]

Got to think Euro gets stronger after 96 hours...

[toad strangler]

I smell a recurve or north of Florida on this run

Ridge looks to be filling back in after 98L lifts N but timing is everything.

[Bhuggs]

Maybe not, high pressure really builds back in. Can’t wait to see the euro ensembles

[xironman]

But about to hit one of the highest areas of TCHP in the basin