ATL: DORIAN - Models

[ronjon]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

[mcheer23]

FWIW...CMC is now on board.

[canes92]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

[SunnyThoughts]

The Canadian model seems to be following suit, coming across the southern tip of Florida headed into the gulf as well at hour 138.

[northjaxpro]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

Forecasting intensity is always a very tough and tricky part of this business/science. Should Dorian get by Hispaniola unscathed, we may have ideal conditions conducive for the cyclone to intensify significally especialy in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In the short term (next 3-5 days).

[ronjon]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

Yeah let's hope so - but global models are notoriously poor at predicting intensity. The fact that they forecast a minimal hurricane is disconcerting at best. My analog was for track.

[sma10]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

Forecasting intensity is always a very tough and tricky part of this business/science. Should Dorian get by Hispaniola unscathed, we may have ideal conditions conducive for the cyclone to intensify significally especialy in the vicinity of the Bahamas. In the short term (next 3-5 days).

Intensity skill with global models is sketchy. 2-3 days in the bahamas under favorable conditions, even a TD could wind up anywhere across the spectrum

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).

[AubreyStorm]

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).

Link please .....

[toad strangler]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

Frances was a 2 at landfall. The biggest problem with the one was he moved very slow.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF is still running..

[AtlanticWind]

Another potential past analog track.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/Major-Hurricane-Frances

Maybe the same path but it doesn't seem likely Dorian would achieve major h status. Maybe I am wrong.

Frances was a 2 at landfall. The biggest problem with the one was he moved very slow.

Sorry, I really don't think Frances is a very good analog for this storm , Was already a powerful hurricane at this
point and further north

[Evil Jeremy]

12z UKMET brings this inland Broward County in 5 1/2 days, exiting the state just south of Tampa Bay.

EDIT: I see ronjon already mentioned it

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).

Yeah , saw that Still big difference in models at this point

[mlfreeman]

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).

So it’s doing the exact opposite of what it normally does?

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF still very insistent that Dorian will completely fall apart in the next 48 hours (as opposed to becoming a hurricane).

So it’s doing the exact opposite of what it normally does?

Well HWRF has done wild swings on this storm

Also it is run off the GFS

[beachman80]

So coming off of Hispanola, what is the likelihood of a track close to Irma? Irma skirted the northern Islands of Hispanola and Cuba and then turned more NW and N and affected Florida's west coast. Or is this thing more likely to be more of an east coast event that could cross into the Gulf, ala Frances, Erin, Andrew, etc.

[tolakram]

So coming off of Hispanola, what is the likelihood of a track close to Irma? Irma skirted the northern Islands of Hispanola and Cuba and then turned more NW and N and affected Florida's west coast. Or is this thing more likely to be more of an east coast event that could cross into the Gulf, ala Frances, Erin, Andrew, etc.

Not sure how anyone can answer that. It depends on the strength of the storm and any upper level ridging in place if/when the storm gets close to Florida.

[stormlover2013]

nobody knows, gotta see how the upper level pattern plays, we will keep see changes and models will keep going back and forth

[ronjon]

Both 12z HMON and HWRF dissipate Dorian into an open wave so perhaps the GFS solution isn't so far fetched. Anxiously awaiting this afternoons Euro to see what direction that will go.