ATL: DORIAN - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#361 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:50 am

GFS Through 72 - Poooooof

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#362 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:53 am

GFS has been consistently ramming Dorian right into the middle of Hispaniola. Yes, when that happens climo says POOF
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#363 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:53 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Big discrepancy between the GFS and the GFS Legacy through 54 hours.

GFS Legacy has a stronger system headed for PR.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#364 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:54 am

Blown Away wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Big discrepancy between the GFS and the GFS Legacy through 54 hours.


Can’t discount GFS...


True. Essentially, GFS is modeling Dorian's fate as a dying cyclone the next day or two. Obviously, if Dorian doesn't die out in the next couple of days then GFS will bust pretty badly
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#365 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:55 am

GFS legacy shows a TS north of Hispanola moving WNW

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#366 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:55 am

GFS legacy holding together a stout vort after crossing PR and into the clear
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#367 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:55 am

Storm fails tp recover after interactions with Cuba on the latest Icon, I do wonder if that were to continue on that model after 180 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#368 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:58 am

i gotta tell ya - GFS would pull off the biggest coup in the tropical cyclone modeling world if it was to verify - but I think its struggling with Dorian's small size right now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#369 Postby hohnywx » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:00 am

chris_fit wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Screenshot from my Google Earth showing many ensembles...

https://i.imgur.com/YW4faB4.png


Ensembles of what? Without context, it might as well be colored markers on a map.

https://i.imgur.com/6G0FeZg.png


Thanks for the info.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#370 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:01 am

12z GFS goes passes through heart of Hispaniola and doesn’t recover afterwards... I do think GFS would show development in Bahamas if it missed the big island...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#371 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:01 am

What on earth is the ICON seeing that would send this West/West-Northwest into the Central GoM?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#372 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:01 am

ronjon wrote:i gotta tell ya - GFS would pull off the biggest coup in the tropical cyclone modeling world if it was to verify - but I think its struggling with Dorian's small size right now.


Reg GFS a classic example of the Cheese Grater saving the day
Legacy completely different with a strong signal heading into the Bahamas at 96 hrs
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#373 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:01 am

SoupBone wrote:What on earth is the ICON seeing that would send this West/West-Northwest into the Central GoM?


UKIE did it last run too
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#374 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:04 am

New UKMET through Miami/Hollywood:

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2019 0 12.4N 57.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 27.08.2019 12 12.9N 59.1W 1007 33
1200UTC 27.08.2019 24 13.9N 61.0W 1006 40
0000UTC 28.08.2019 36 15.2N 63.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 28.08.2019 48 16.6N 64.9W 999 47
0000UTC 29.08.2019 60 18.3N 66.5W 999 49
1200UTC 29.08.2019 72 20.2N 68.2W 992 54
0000UTC 30.08.2019 84 21.8N 70.0W 990 57
1200UTC 30.08.2019 96 23.2N 72.2W 986 58
0000UTC 31.08.2019 108 24.4N 74.8W 981 65
1200UTC 31.08.2019 120 25.0N 77.7W 979 73
0000UTC 01.09.2019 132 26.0N 80.4W 981 65
1200UTC 01.09.2019 144 27.3N 82.9W 987 66

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#375 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:05 am

Siker wrote:New UKMET through Miami/Hollywood:

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2019 0 12.4N 57.0W 1009 32
0000UTC 27.08.2019 12 12.9N 59.1W 1007 33
1200UTC 27.08.2019 24 13.9N 61.0W 1006 40
0000UTC 28.08.2019 36 15.2N 63.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 28.08.2019 48 16.6N 64.9W 999 47
0000UTC 29.08.2019 60 18.3N 66.5W 999 49
1200UTC 29.08.2019 72 20.2N 68.2W 992 54
0000UTC 30.08.2019 84 21.8N 70.0W 990 57
1200UTC 30.08.2019 96 23.2N 72.2W 986 58
0000UTC 31.08.2019 108 24.4N 74.8W 981 65
1200UTC 31.08.2019 120 25.0N 77.7W 979 73
0000UTC 01.09.2019 132 26.0N 80.4W 981 65
1200UTC 01.09.2019 144 27.3N 82.9W 987 66



WOW Ukie continues to shift N
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#376 Postby HypercaneKyle » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:05 am

Legacy-GFS has a strong TS in the Bahamas by 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#377 Postby HypercaneKyle » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:07 am

Also worth pointing out the trends in the GFS vs the storm's actual intensity. If you look at this current forecast hour (12z Aug 26) from past runs you'll consistently see the storm is stronger than the GFS was anticipating.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#378 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:09 am

Ridge is stronger on the GFS run
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#379 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:09 am

12z Legacy GFS in agreement with the 12z UKMET on SEFL landfall:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#380 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:12 am

GFS Legacy heading right for Palm Beach County 983 mb at 126 hrs
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