ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

Yet another slight shift to the right on latest early 12z models.

https://i.imgur.com/CubU48g.png

That, and only the light green model would take it over the mountains. The eastern side of Hispaniola won't do too much to weaken systems, especially if it just clips it.

Yep, the eastern tip of Hispaniola has just a few high hills, will not do much to it.

[SFLcane]

06z EURO anyone???

[stormlover2013]

Models will keep going back and forth and will keep making everyone's brains hurt lol

[northjaxpro]

Models will keep going back and forth and will keep making everyone's brains hurt lol

God yes. I am confident however that I think we will have a real good handle on this with the models by Wednesday. A consensus will be arrived by then.

[SFLcane]

In terms of the SE lets hope this does indeed gets tangled with haiti because this one is not turning.

[otowntiger]

Models will keep going back and forth and will keep making everyone's brains hurt lol

God yes. I am confident however that I think we will have a real good handle on this with the models by Wednesday. A consensus will be arrived by then.

Agreed regarding path, but even by Wednesday we still may not know much about what kind of storm it will ultimately be intensity wise. Of course a lot of the intensity will be dictated by how much it is affected by land interaction in the Greater Antilles, but even when we know that better it is still a crap shoot as to how it will intensify or not beyond that.

[Blow_Hard]

06z EURO anyone???

Looks like the Euro and Legacy bring Dorian in to Florida but re-curve it back out to the Atlantic and never reaches the GOM...

Looks like Navgem wants to bring a fairly significant TC in to S FL early next week.

[northjaxpro]

Models will keep going back and forth and will keep making everyone's brains hurt lol

God yes. I am confident however that I think we will have a real good handle on this with the models by Wednesday. A consensus will be arrived by then.

Agreed regarding path, but even by Wednesday we still may not know much about what kind of storm it will ultimately be intensity wise. Of course a lot of the intensity will be dictated by how much it is affected by land interaction in the Greater Antilles, but even when we know that better it is still a crap shoot as to how it will intensify or not beyond that.

Yeah, I was talking about the path in terms of consensus. Intensity forecasts are NEVER easy forecasts with tropical cyclones.

[NDG]

06z EURO anyone???

06z Euro shifted to the right and slightly stronger.

[chris_fit]

06z EURO anyone???

06z Euro shifted to the right and slightly stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/eF7jzz3.gif

How does this run end? or do the 06z EURO runs only go out this far?

[NDG]

06z EURO anyone???

06z Euro shifted to the right and slightly stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/eF7jzz3.gif

How does this run end? or do the 06z EURO runs only go out this far?

06z and 18z Rapid HR Euro only go out to 84 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

The model I'll be watching the closest over the next 48 hours is the UKMET. While GFS and ECMWF kept dissipating in the NE Caribbean, and others rammed Dorian into the Hispaniola Meat Grinder, the UKMET has been consistant in forecasting Dorian moving North of Hispaniola. I often think UKMET gets lost in the "model wars". Time and time again when it holds firm with a scenario that's a relative outlier but not beyond reason, the other models come around.

[northjaxpro]

The model I'll be watching the closest over the next 48 hours is the UKMET. While GFS and ECMWF kept dissipating in the NE Caribbean, and others rammed Dorian into the Hispaniola Meat Grinder, the UKMET has been consistant in forecasting Dorian moving North of Hispaniola. I often think UKMET gets lost in the "model wars". Time and time again when it holds firm with a scenario that's a relative outlier but not beyond reason, the other models come around.

UKMET is solid model. It is right up there with EURO and GFS in my book. I agree with you. I follow it all the time. It is generally good at recognizing a solution and sticking by it through the years in medium to long range.

[chris_fit]

The model I'll be watching the closest over the next 48 hours is the UKMET. While GFS and ECMWF kept dissipating in the NE Caribbean, and others rammed Dorian into the Hispaniola Meat Grinder, the UKMET has been consistant in forecasting Dorian moving North of Hispaniola. I often think UKMET gets lost in the "model wars". Time and time again when it holds firm with a scenario that's a relative outlier but not beyond reason, the other models come around.

I Def watch the UKMET Model, but it blew it completely with Barry. Just tread carefully with it!

[toad strangler]

The model I'll be watching the closest over the next 48 hours is the UKMET. While GFS and ECMWF kept dissipating in the NE Caribbean, and others rammed Dorian into the Hispaniola Meat Grinder, the UKMET has been consistant in forecasting Dorian moving North of Hispaniola. I often think UKMET gets lost in the "model wars". Time and time again when it holds firm with a scenario that's a relative outlier but not beyond reason, the other models come around.

Ukie is def one of what I call The Big Three when it comes to globals.

[Frank P]

last UKMET I saw on Dorian had a Cat 2 in the SE GOM...
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[toad strangler]

The model I'll be watching the closest over the next 48 hours is the UKMET. While GFS and ECMWF kept dissipating in the NE Caribbean, and others rammed Dorian into the Hispaniola Meat Grinder, the UKMET has been consistant in forecasting Dorian moving North of Hispaniola. I often think UKMET gets lost in the "model wars". Time and time again when it holds firm with a scenario that's a relative outlier but not beyond reason, the other models come around.

I Def watch the UKMET Model, but it blew it completely with Barry. Just tread carefully with it!

They all blow em. Tools. Not Crystal Balls.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

UKMET called IRMA's path days before everyone else.

Since then, UKMET is top tier for me.

[BensonTCwatcher]

In terms of the SE lets hope this does indeed gets tangled with haiti because this one is not turning.

https://i.imgur.com/UpMrCF0.png

This is what I am looking at today. Mainly because this is the most significant synoptic feature that will factor in down the road. 2 days ago it looked like Caribbean shear (ULL) and flow from that big Texas high were going to inhibit development...well we're in a different spot now. The position of the "Bermuda high" and as some have named the "thumb ridge" is to be watched on the Euro and new GFS in my opinion and even the NAM for meso scale as we get into Wed or so of this week. That said, if I was betting on this storm, it would be that it will end still to the right of the current Euro run 5-6 out. Shooting the mona passage seems plausible, but it's pretty rare for the FL east cost to see a storm landfall at that vector. A recurve with no US landfall is still a reasonable solution. There also appears to be an ULL south of Bermuda dropping down that could meet Dorian near Hispaniola and inhibit development.

[ronjon]

If this happens hopefully we'll see a recurve before landfall. No consistency at the moment.

Hopefully so - but as of now, not with strong 500 mb ridging anchoring itself in a thumb from the SW Atlantic to north Florida in the ECM this Saturday.