ATL: DORIAN - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Both the operational GFS and ECMWF have terrible initialization, IMO. ECMWF starts Dorian off at 1010mb; GFS at 1006mb.

Darn tiny storms

[caneman]

Frances and Jeanne are coming to mind with Dorian. 11 days total without power between the 2 and I'm on the west coast. No modeling indication of an Andrew type situation of course but you never forget it.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty much all models keep Dorian a TS or Hurricane approaching Florida this weekend except for GFS. And most importantly, all show amazing consistency on the forecast track through this weekend. Most now take it into Florida moving W-NW or NW from the east coast. It will be a fun labor day weekend as usual tracking a tropical cyclone possibly impacting the US. So much for the slow season.

NHC is outstanding on track even out to 4 days now, even 5 day is getting to the point where you dont want to be at the 5 day point like a few years ago when it usually meant you were "ok". Intensity on this one is really a low confidence bet with the islands in play...24 hours from now Floridians will have a handle on what they can reasonably expect.

A pretty salient point here. All in all, a greater threat to a Ponce (P.R.) hit along with a continued NHC track bending Dorian back to the West to WNW once south and east of the Bahamas..... , is a real signal to Floridians to pay serious attention

yes.

South Floridians and Peurto Ricans, the person to follow is John Morales NBC 6 @JohnMoralesNBC6, if he starts raising the red flag, take it seriously...he is sticking to his guns of a very weak system affecting florida, if he starts changing his tune than watch out

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS-Legacy

[toad strangler]

NHC is outstanding on track even out to 4 days now, even 5 day is getting to the point where you dont want to be at the 5 day point like a few years ago when it usually meant you were "ok". Intensity on this one is really a low confidence bet with the islands in play...24 hours from now Floridians will have a handle on what they can reasonably expect.

A pretty salient point here. All in all, a greater threat to a Ponce (P.R.) hit along with a continued NHC track bending Dorian back to the West to WNW once south and east of the Bahamas..... , is a real signal to Floridians to pay serious attention

yes.

South Floridians and Peurto Ricans, the person to follow is John Morales NBC 6 @JohnMoralesNBC6, if he starts raising the red flag, take it seriously...he is sticking to his guns of a very weak system affecting florida, if he starts changing his tune than watch out

Morales is always very conservative but that’s a good thing when you are talking to the masses. Personally I like Steve Weagle more but no slight to Morales.

[Weatherboy1]

Paying a little more attention here in South FL this a.m., that's for sure. I think the most noteworthy development is that more models are showing Dorian only skirting the island of Hispanola or crossing the far east end. As you can see from a topographic map, that isn't where the high mountains are located. So, wouldn't see much disruption of the circulation IF that came to pass IMO ...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg

[Blown Away]

06z NAVGEM

[Blown Away]

00z Euro/ECMWF

[jlauderdal]

A pretty salient point here. All in all, a greater threat to a Ponce (P.R.) hit along with a continued NHC track bending Dorian back to the West to WNW once south and east of the Bahamas..... , is a real signal to Floridians to pay serious attention

yes.

South Floridians and Peurto Ricans, the person to follow is John Morales NBC 6 @JohnMoralesNBC6, if he starts raising the red flag, take it seriously...he is sticking to his guns of a very weak system affecting florida, if he starts changing his tune than watch out

Morales is always very conservative but that’s a good thing when you are talking to the masses. Personally I like Steve Weagle more but no slight to Morales.

weagle is good but not available in miami

what is weagle saying about this system?

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF

[Highteeld]

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 67 73 76 77 77 78 79 81 80
V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 67 73 76 77 65 55 56 57 57
V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 65 75 82 84 71 58 64 72 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 5 1 3 5 5 11 10 8 4 5 4 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 1 -2 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 109 59 91 337 320 263 261 241 255 176 34 65 18
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 147 149 152 152 151 152 152 149 150 155 160
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 147 149 152 150 148 146 143 139 139 142 144
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10
700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 48 47 47 49 55 58 59 63 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 10 14 5 -1 0 11 13 15 10 -3 -37 -35 -50
200 MB DIV 6 -8 0 20 27 14 8 1 0 9 7 29 2
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 7 5 5 5 0
LAND (KM) 449 355 280 277 336 444 225 79 -11 13 168 234 227
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.8 16.0 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.4 22.6 23.3
LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.1 59.2 60.3 61.4 63.4 65.6 67.6 69.2 70.8 72.4 74.1 76.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 51 56 39 37 47 42 54 87 76 48 41 64 65

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 31. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 57.1

** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 6.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 5.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 44.9% 32.7% 25.4% 16.4% 41.4% 36.3% 25.4%
Logistic: 16.2% 33.9% 31.1% 26.2% 11.1% 28.7% 19.0% 15.5%
Bayesian: 7.1% 30.2% 45.8% 2.8% 2.1% 25.5% 9.7% 0.5%
Consensus: 11.8% 36.3% 36.6% 18.2% 9.9% 31.9% 21.7% 13.8%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0%

[Blown Away]

yes.

South Floridians and Peurto Ricans, the person to follow is John Morales NBC 6 @JohnMoralesNBC6, if he starts raising the red flag, take it seriously...he is sticking to his guns of a very weak system affecting florida, if he starts changing his tune than watch out

Morales is always very conservative but that’s a good thing when you are talking to the masses. Personally I like Steve Weagle more but no slight to Morales.

weagle is good but not available in miami

what is weagle saying about this system?

Weagle going with the conservative for now... He is good not alarming people 7+ days out not matter what models say, but leaning with the NHC forecast and waiting to see how the big islands effect Dorian...

[NDG]

Yet another slight shift to the right on latest early 12z models.

[Kingarabian]

06z Euro much stronger and NE than 00z Euro through 90 hours.


PC : Weathermodels.com

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

06z Euro much stronger and NE than 00z Euro through 90 hours.
https://i.imgur.com/bYqOdpU.gif

PC : Weathermodels.com

Oh wow..

[Blown Away]

NHC (OFCI) is the outlier for intensity.

[jlauderdal]

06z Euro much stronger and NE than 00z Euro through 90 hours.
https://i.imgur.com/bYqOdpU.gif

PC : Weathermodels.com

Oh wow..

reduction in land interaction in the modeling, expect an uptick with intensification.

[chris_fit]

Yet another slight shift to the right on latest early 12z models.

https://i.imgur.com/CubU48g.png

That, and only the light green model would take it over the mountains. The eastern side of Hispaniola won't do too much to weaken systems, especially if it just clips it.

[tolakram]

If this happens hopefully we'll see a recurve before landfall. No consistency at the moment.