ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Up to 50kts next advisory.

[USTropics]

Up to 50kts next advisory.

AL, 05, 2019082606, , BEST, 0, 118N, 558W, 50, 1002, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013

It'll be interesting this morning to see how Dorian performs, given the past few mornings he's had his best convective bursts and will be entering increasingly warmer waters in the next few hours:

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Up to 50kts next advisory.

AL, 05, 2019082606, , BEST, 0, 118N, 558W, 50, 1002, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013

It'll be interesting this morning to see how Dorian performs, given the past few mornings he's had his best convective bursts and will be entering increasingly warmer waters in the next few hours:
https://i.imgur.com/NjbxeJe.png

Maybe a hurricane later today.

[Aric Dunn]

Now its cooking. Curved banding on north and south side. Whole column is rotating...

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 558W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 15, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 558W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 15, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 12, 124N, 582W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 12, 124N, 582W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 24, 132N, 603W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 24, 132N, 603W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 624W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 624W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 48, 155N, 645W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 48, 155N, 645W, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 72, 180N, 684W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 72, 180N, 684W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 96, 208N, 716W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082606, 03, OFCL, 120, 230N, 750W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0,

[hurricaneCW]

It's a small system, it's late August so not all that surprising that it's getting going.

He could be a sneaky threat down the line.

[USTropics]

Now its cooking. Curved banding on north and south side. Whole column is rotating...

Nice burst right over the center, CDO is improving:

[Highteeld]

The dual banding looks sick right now. Just needs an eye to pop out.

[Aric Dunn]

With the teo large curved bnads it looks like it has effectively cut itself off from the dry air.

It is looking extremely well right now. Recon is probably going to find a hurricane. Or st least very close

[GCANE]

Towers firing right over the top of the CoC.

[Kingarabian]

With the teo large curved bnads it looks like it has effectively cut itself off from the dry air.

It is looking extremely well right now. Recon is probably going to find a hurricane. Or st least very close

It certainly looks much better right now. Nice structure. Satellite derived estimates are still near T3.5 and will remain such until it can develop colder cloud tops or an eye like feature becomes evident.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the latest microwave image:


Core looks established in all quads except the south.

[Aric Dunn]

I cant believe recon does not fly for another 12 hours.. seems silly.

[Hammy]

Center looks a bit 'exposed' there and away from the main convection, there appears to be a bit of mid-level shear working it's way in from the south.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Center looks a bit 'exposed' there and away from the main convection, there appears to be a bit of mid-level shear working it's way in from the south.

[Highteeld]

Here's the latest microwave image:
https://i.imgur.com/OsoWTDO.jpg

Core looks established in all quads except the south.

Couple of towers just starting to go off on the south side right now

[GCANE]

I think the reason Dorian is ramping is due to the fact that high TPW air was advected into the system from a very warm SST current off S America.
Dorian is now past it.
Current location is green circle on Earth Nullschool image.
Tons of dry air ahead, even up to the higher levels.

[N2FSU]

From the 5am NHC Discussion:
It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea.

Did they just ignore the 0z Euro? I guess they are waiting on more consistency, but the latest Euro has anything but dissipation.

[Tailspin]

Tight n tiny TS. click on pic for 3hr loop

[Aric Dunn]

No delay in convection this time. Biggest thing to note is the full curved band outlined by the overshooting tops. That's the first real sign of it being close to hurricane. Impressive actually