ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

What should we here in barbados expect

Going by the wind speed probabilities you have a 75% chance of experiencing at least 34 knot winds in approximately 36 hours and up to a possibility of 28% chance of 50 knot, same time period and a slight chance up to around 64 knots
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 2104.shtml

[HDGator]

What should we here in barbados expect

At this point it looks like the worst is Tropical Storm force winds (39mph+) and rain (2-4 inches, maybe as high as 6") based on NHC forecast. That may change but it's the best we have right now.

[1900hurricane]

For what it's worth, Dorian actually appears rather well walled off from environmental dry air on microwave imagery. The biggest negative still appears to be background subsidence to me, but continued sustained convection may be starting to overcome that hurdle. The overall system footprint remains very small.

[abajan]

What should we here in barbados expect

Good question. I don't know the answer, but we should probably have been placed under a hurricane watch at 11 PM.

[Blown Away]

What should we here in barbados expect

Good question. I don't know the answer, but we should probably have been placed under a hurricane watch at 11 PM.

Yeah, little surprised a Hurricane Watch wasn’t issued as well... If tonight’s 00z Euro/GFS budge from dissipation in E Caribbean that will change IMHO...

[Frank2]

Despite the fact that Joe Bastardi sometimes gives me a headache, his forecasts are ofen very accurate and during the day did explain why his forecast is for Dorian to "meet its demise" in the Caribbean due to shear and dry air. Looking at the WV the environment isn't the best and as the NHC often mentions, small systems are subject to rapid dissipation.

Living in South Florida, I hope the media restrain themselves tomorrow morning - at this point Dorian is a small modest not very exciting system that per the latest TCD remains unchanged from this afternoon.

Frank

[tolakram]

Slider shortwave

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_07&x=784&y=743

[toad strangler]

Despite the fact that Joe Bastardi sometimes gives me a headache, his forecasts are ofen very accurate and during the day did explain why his forecast is for Dorian to "meet its demise" in the Caribbean due to shear and dry air. Looking at the WV the environment isn't the best and as the NHC often mentions, small systems are subject to rapid dissipation.

Living in South Florida, I hope the media restrain themselves tomorrow morning - at this point Dorian is a small modest not very exciting system that per the latest TCD remains unchanged from this afternoon.

Frank

The globals are forecasting dissipation or open wave. It’s easy to get carried away looking at stuff put out by the likes of the HWRF and NAVGEM but with virtually zero support from the big 3 G’s it’s tough to consider them seriously.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1165824972788523008

[Hurricaneman]

My thinking is that this goes north of Hispaniola but also will be in a good environment for strengthening north of Hispaniola all the way to Florida

[Bostonriff]

Despite the fact that Joe Bastardi sometimes gives me a headache, his forecasts are ofen very accurate and during the day did explain why his forecast is for Dorian to "meet its demise" in the Caribbean due to shear and dry air.

That explanation from him is making my head hurt right now, because Dorian formed a few days ago in an environment with more shear and dry air around it than what will be in the Caribbean in a few days.

[USTropics]

Time lapse of Dorian from 4+ days:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/cKrjjIPGGvc[/youtube]

[AutoPenalti]

Short-term intensity is way off on the GFS. Dorian is a lot stronger than that right now.

[Hurricaneman]

Short-term intensity is way off on the GFS. Dorian is a lot stronger than that right now.

That’s why it’s solution may be suspect but it’s going for a new burst soon

[Highteeld]

[Ubuntwo]

Convection popping up around the tiny CDO, burst on the south side looks to be the start of another pulse in convection

[USTropics]

Past 100 frames (updated every 1 minute with mesoscale floater):

[Highteeld]

More structural changes (or at least attempts at them) appear to be underway.

[Bostonriff]

The local atmospheric lapse-rate around Dorian has reached a nice critical point once again, as all of these towers began popping within a half-hour of each other all across the system.

[Highteeld]

Could justify 50-55 knots right now. These tend to run a little conservative