ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HDGator]

https://i.imgur.com/W6ln85f.jpg

I attempted to draw the 00z TVCN Consensus line (NHC seems to follow this consensus line closely) compared to the 5pm NHC line... They flattened the line from 11am to 5pm, but didn't move it much north over Hispaniola, so I think at 11pm we will see a track inched N with less Hispaniola interaction and will that change intensity forecast???

Thanks for the overlay. If Dorian battles through the dry air, those two paths are the crux of the question we're facing. One takes it through a shredder and leaves next to nothing on the other side of the mountains of Hispaniola while the TVCN takes the 'magic route' that presents the worst danger for CONUS with those of us in South Florida in the crosshairs.

I can't see the NHC doing much to shift the forecast at 11pm until the GFS and ECMWF start to get on board with a survival scenario for Dorian in the Eastern Caribbean. At this point, I'm thinking it's still a small probability worst case scenario. I can hope, but you can tell from my post count and past posts that I'm only here when the bad scenario for South Florida is possibly in play.

[Aric Dunn]

If the South/East Florida scenario were to play out, impact looks to be next Sunday, a week from today. If I get off work tomorrow and models are holding steady, I'm getting my basic supplies. Not getting caught off guard. Hopefully not, but if there were to be madness in anticipation of a Hurricane here, it would be kicking in around Wednesday.

regardless of strength. an out sea option is very low.

[toad strangler]

If the South/East Florida scenario were to play out, impact looks to be next Sunday, a week from today. If I get off work tomorrow and models are holding steady, I'm getting my basic supplies. Not getting caught off guard. Hopefully not, but if there were to be madness in anticipation of a Hurricane here, it would be kicking in around Wednesday.

I have everything done every June. All I have to do is fill the gas cans. Looking for them to stay empty.

[Evil Jeremy]

If the South/East Florida scenario were to play out, impact looks to be next Sunday, a week from today. If I get off work tomorrow and models are holding steady, I'm getting my basic supplies. Not getting caught off guard. Hopefully not, but if there were to be madness in anticipation of a Hurricane here, it would be kicking in around Wednesday.

regardless of strength. an out sea option is very low.

Dissipation via shear and/or the Hispaniola Meat Grinder is still on the table though. Maybe it will pull a Chris 2006 and vanish into thin air.

[Highteeld]

[Bostonriff]

https://i.imgur.com/1RDuyZR.jpg
Historical Aug/Sept tracks within 75 miles of the NHC 5 day point for Dorian... GOM is a real possibility after raking the entire Caribbean...

Jamaica seems to have a charmed life....

(If I recall correctly, it hasn't had a cat-3 hit since Gilbert in 1988, and has never been hit by a cat-4 or cat-5, which is kinda bonkers when you think about where that not-exactly-small island is sitting.)

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 0, 116N, 547W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, RJP, 280, 12, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 15, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 3, 117N, 553W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, RJP, 280, 12, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 15, 0, 30,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 12, 121N, 570W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, RJP, 285, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 12, 121N, 570W, 50, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, RJP, 285, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 24, 128N, 593W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJP, 290, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 24, 128N, 593W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJP, 290, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 36, 137N, 615W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJP, 295, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 36, 137N, 615W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJP, 295, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 48, 148N, 636W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, RJP, 300, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 48, 148N, 636W, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, RJP, 300, 12,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 72, 172N, 676W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 72, 172N, 676W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 96, 195N, 710W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 120, 215N, 740W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 9,

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL,

AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 96, 195N, 710W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082600, 03, OFCL, 120, 215N, 740W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 0, , 0, RJP, 305, 9,

Doesn't look like the track has been shifted north, might be by 11pm however.

[AubreyStorm]

AMSU pressure estimate continues to fall and is now estimating a central pressure of 991 mbar based on the properties of Dorian's warm core. Such pressures for a storm of Dorian's size are typically indicative of a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane. Would be very interested in a high-resolution GMI/AMSR2 microwave pass of Dorian given it already looks quite a bit different than it did just two hours ago with a new burst of convection.

WOWWW! Interesting.....

991mb

[floridasun78]

If the South/East Florida scenario were to play out, impact looks to be next Sunday, a week from today. If I get off work tomorrow and models are holding steady, I'm getting my basic supplies. Not getting caught off guard. Hopefully not, but if there were to be madness in anticipation of a Hurricane here, it would be kicking in around Wednesday.

i here miami too i going wait untill get close to PR because eastern Caribbean suppose kid it if make good pass that area and pass not over dominican republic only east tip we could have stronger system in southern Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

Outflow is really improving. Radial expansion in all quads..

[AdamFirst]

My dad's supposed to fly to Puerto Rico this Wednesday for work. Been telling him that trip may end up postponed

[floridasun78]

were report come out 991 pressure? by plane or what?

[toad strangler]

were report come out 991 pressure? by plane or what?

Cruise Ship

No that's a joke just kidding

[Highteeld]

were report come out 991 pressure? by plane or what?

No, it came from this: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/amsu/info.html

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What should we here in barbados expect

[zhukm29]

We have a potentially dangerous storm brewing at the moment... hopefully the SHIPS forecast of near-zero shear does not verify. Just yesterday many were questioning why NHC had an intensity that was above all model guidance, but those at the NHC certainly knew what they were getting into when they were making that forecast.

[1900hurricane]

AMSU pressure estimate continues to fall and is now estimating a central pressure of 991 mbar based on the properties of Dorian's warm core. Such pressures for a storm of Dorian's size are typically indicative of a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane. Would be very interested in a high-resolution GMI/AMSR2 microwave pass of Dorian given it already looks quite a bit different than it did just two hours ago with a new burst of convection.

What's interesting about the AMSU data is that the Vmax estimate is very much in line other microwave estimates, but the pressure estimate is running 8 mb or so below the SSMIS and ATMS estimates. I'm not sure which is more accurate for sure, but I'd probably lean towards the higher pressures. I'm getting 996-997 with the AMSU Vmax just using KZC, which looks reasonable to me.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro initialized a decent vortex and lost it once in the E Caribbean just like the 18z GFS... So the Euro/GFS did show a TS, maybe not as strong as Dorian is now, but lost it in E Caribbean... Tonight’s runs will be fun, setting my 00z Euro alarm...

[Homie J]

It's gotten much better organized compared to yesterday or even this morning. This morning it looked like blobs of storms. I'm starting to think it could get to hurricane strength closer to the islands seeing how it's fending off the dry air pretty well.