ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Monsoonjr99]

Even if the models are right and this convective burst doesn't amount to much, I think there's still a chance Dorian could become a major hurricane, probably after regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico a la Harvey if so. Hopefully this does not become a destructive monster.

If this goes over Hispaniola I think its pretty much going to be gave over for Dorian depending on how strong it is on arrival.

If the southward trend continues, Dorian might miss Hispaniola, albeit in the shear death zone. Afterwards, it may make it into the Gulf, though I suppose it is just as likely the ridge makes this Juliette instead.

[Aric Dunn]

zooming in with the meso floater you can see the proto eyewall in the convection... its making a run for Hurricane.

Shear has just dropped off.. the deep convection is helping to center the high over it.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Even if the models are right and this convective burst doesn't amount to much, I think there's still a chance Dorian could become a major hurricane, probably after regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico a la Harvey if so. Hopefully this does not become a destructive monster.

If this goes over Hispaniola I think its pretty much going to be gave over for Dorian depending on how strong it is on arrival.

If the southward trend continues, Dorian might miss Hispaniola, albeit in the shear death zone. Afterwards, it may make it into the Gulf, though I suppose it is just as likely the ridge makes this Juliette instead.

first, theres no Juliette this year. secondly how are we going from Dorian to the J storm? 98L will be Erin and the next letter would be F.

[BYG Jacob]

Is it just me or are there -80C cloud tops firing around an eye wall? Almost looks like there is a partial eye wall. But it will probably be gone by the time i post this

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

I thought I saw that too, might just be ,y eyes though.

[Monsoonjr99]

-snip-

first, theres no Juliette this year. secondly how are we going from Dorian to the J storm? 98L will be Erin and the next letter would be F.

I'm referring to the eastern Pacific basin.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

-snip-

first, theres no Juliette this year. secondly how are we going from Dorian to the J storm? 98L will be Erin and the next letter would be F.

I'm referring to the eastern Pacific basin.

ah ok that makes more sense i figured you were referring to the atlantic basin since this is a storm within the atlantic basin

[Aric Dunn]

So much for a struggling MDR system..

[floridasun78]

recon is on its way now as i understand it, would be perfect timing for them to arrive with this convective burst.

flight not untill mon

[seahawkjd]

recon is on its way now as i understand it, would be perfect timing for them to arrive with this convective burst.

flight not untill mon

They are doing a synoptic flight right now though. Not sure if that will get any readings from the storm itself or just the area to help the models.

[Aric Dunn]

3/4 of an eyewall it looks like..

[Visioen]

Even if the models are right and this convective burst doesn't amount to much, I think there's still a chance Dorian could become a major hurricane, probably after regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico a la Harvey if so. Hopefully this does not become a destructive monster.

If this goes over Hispaniola I think its pretty much going to be gave over for Dorian depending on how strong it is on arrival.

If the southward trend continues, Dorian might miss Hispaniola, albeit in the shear death zone. Afterwards, it may make it into the Gulf, though I suppose it is just as likely the ridge makes this Juliette instead.

With what appears to be recent strenghtening, I doubt the southward trend will continue.

[NDG]

Interesting that as soon as those outflow boundaries to the south that were visible in the morning dissipated sustained deep convection has returned as inflow from the south started back up again.

[Kazmit]

If this goes over Hispaniola I think its pretty much going to be gave over for Dorian depending on how strong it is on arrival.

If the southward trend continues, Dorian might miss Hispaniola, albeit in the shear death zone. Afterwards, it may make it into the Gulf, though I suppose it is just as likely the ridge makes this Juliette instead.

With what appears to be recent strenghtening, I doubt the southward trend will continue.

In fact, if this gets stronger than expected, it would be more likely to go north of the consensus. That would be the best scenario for the survival of Dorian, but it seems unlikely that it will miss Hispaniola to the north at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection has sustained but I think it’s diurnal energy.

[Aric Dunn]

absolutely amazing how fast this is happening.

[NDG]

Convection has sustained but I think it’s diurnal energy.

Actually is past the diurnal maximum which happens in the early mornings. If convection maintains through the evening then we will know that it is strengthening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Air to the west doesnt look nearly as dry as it did yesterday

[AutoPenalti]

Convection has sustained but I think it’s diurnal energy.

Actually is past the diurnal maximum which happens in the early mornings. If convection maintains through the evening then we will know that it is strengthening.

We’ll see, I still think it won’t further develop. I’ve been very pessimistic about this storm, I’m starting to question if it might shut me up.

[TorSkk]

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 25/1800Z

C. 11.5N

D. 53.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON 0.55 CURVED BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[ColdMiser123]

Convection has sustained but I think it’s diurnal energy.

Diurnal minimum is actually right around now because surface temperatures near the ocean do not vary much across the course of the day. What does vary are temperatures aloft throughout the course of the day for a column of air over the ocean.

One key factor for convection to develop is that you have a sharp rate of temperature decrease with height. That would mean that the sharpest rates of temperature decline with height over the ocean occur close to sunrise, where upper level temperatures are lowest, and surface temperatures are about the same as they are currently. After sunrise, surface temperatures continue to remain at near constant values, while temperatures aloft rise considerably, giving you a shallower rate of temperature decrease with height during the afternoon over the ocean.

For land, the sharpest rates of temperature decline with height occur during the afternoon, since surface temperatures rise considerably with daytime heating.