ATL: DORIAN - Models

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro is very weak coming into the Lesser Antilles. This is easily the weakest of the last 4 runs.

[Highteeld]

[MetroMike]

HWRF is strenthening after hitting PR.

[AtlanticWind]

The 0Z Euro is very weak coming into the Lesser Antilles.

Seems like the Euro keeps this to far south ,more than the other models

Also already Dorian appears to be gaining latitude

[AtlanticWind]

Ukmet, GFS legacy,Nogaps,HWRF, Icon ,Stronger and further north

New GFS ,Euro, HMON, Canadian ,weak and further south

Who knows

[Nimbus]

HWRF is strenthening after hitting PR.

The fixed the 00Z run brought the strength down to cat 1 at landfall in PR and changed the track to spend a few hours more in the Mona passage.

[BobHarlem]

Lots of poof on the main models this morning. (Other than HWRF)

[bamajammer4eva]

If it doesn't hang out too long over the shredder...

[HurricaneIrma]

The 0Z Euro is very weak coming into the Lesser Antilles.

Seems like the Euro keeps this to far south ,more than the other models

Also already Dorian appears to be gaining latitude

Its not gaining latitube right now

[NDG]

The majority of Euro ensembles track Dorian south of Barbados as a weak system.

[NDG]

If Dorian today and tomorrow morning picks up forward speed and does not gain latitude then the latest GFS and Euro will be correct in it not gaining much strength as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

[bamajammer4eva]

You know how models typically have a right bias.... I've been expecting this to possibly go N of the shredder but Could it actually miss Hispaniola to the south?

[TheStormExpert]

You know how models typically have a right bias.... I've been expecting this to possibly go N of the shredder but Could it actually miss Hispaniola to the south?

If it goes south of Hispaniola it’s game over due to the TUTT and a ULL.

[TheStormExpert]

The majority of Euro ensembles track Dorian south of Barbados as a weak system.

https://i.imgur.com/2ewYmuG.png

The bigger picture shows that the Euro Ensemble support (at least beyond the islands) has gone way down.

[Highteeld]

12z SHIPS:

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 63 66 69 69 72 74
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 63 66 69 69 55 48
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 46 52 58 62 65 67 54 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 1 5 2 8 11 16 16 20 8 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 5 1 -1 0 -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 98 115 168 324 4 308 302 254 264 244 255 212 243
SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 143 147 151 152 155 150 153 153 153 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 142 142 147 151 150 153 146 147 146 145 146
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 13 12 13 12
700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 42 43 47 50 49 49 47 49 52 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 8 4 1 9 9 16 19 17 7 2 -21
200 MB DIV -17 -15 -11 -3 -16 -4 15 18 25 32 -6 -4 -6
700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 1 -1 2 3 5 1 4
LAND (KM) 628 631 624 572 490 311 322 444 269 145 57 -55 52
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.8 20.2
LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.5 54.6 55.6 56.7 59.0 61.1 63.0 65.1 66.9 68.6 70.3 72.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 12 17 24 31 44 41 45 45 47 76 91 66 47

.SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[TexWx]

If it doesn't hang out too long over the shredder...

https://i.imgur.com/hY4yAxf.gif

GFS really?

[Emmett_Brown]

The GFS shear forecast shows some shear over the vicinity of Hispaniola on Thursday, but not really that strong: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=102

The upper level low causing the shear will be moving W/NW just ahead of Dorian. While the environment is not ideal, I think the storm could hold its own. Of course, it will certainly weaken because of land interaction with Hispaniola.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

No consensus at all this morning

[plasticup]

If it doesn't hang out too long over the shredder...

https://i.imgur.com/hY4yAxf.gif

GFS really?

Why not? GoM is ripe, it's just a question of whether this storm gets there.

[StormLogic]

cmc 12z kinda scary