ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Check out this upper low that has developed inside the upper trough over east central florida.

Key thing to notice.... the outflow from the convection with 98L on the side is being pulled to the nw, fanning out...this little feature has actually caused the shear to become more divergent which explains the sudden increase in convection.

it has also decreased the relative shear in this small area. the future evolution of this feature will be interesting. if it back to the west then a small outflow channel would set up and 98L could get a big boost.

you will notice the convection that has developed just near the Keys is not being sheared..

[Emmett_Brown]

Will be interesting to see how the afternoon convection over FL affects the developing circulation. We have seen TC's actually form over narrow landmasses like Florida and Cuba before.

[BobHarlem]

There's not much rain with this so far,it'll be interesting to see how it interacts with the usual Florida daytime heating.

Long term radar:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?458

[GCANE]

Interesting scenario with the ULL would be if the LL vort moves across the Glades into the GOM.
If the ULL remains anchored, then a good chance for RI in the GOM.

[GCANE]

I think its going to move into Biscayne Bay.

[GCANE]

Tagging the ULL for tracking updates.

[NotSparta]

Some broad spin near the coast

[northjaxpro]

Check out this upper low that has developed inside the upper trough over east central florida.

Key thing to notice.... the outflow from the convection with 98L on the side is being pulled to the nw, fanning out...this little feature has actually caused the shear to become more divergent which explains the sudden increase in convection.

it has also decreased the relative shear in this small area. the future evolution of this feature will be interesting. if it back to the west then a small outflow channel would set up and 98L could get a big boost.

you will notice the convection that has developed just near the Keys is not being sheared..

https://i.ibb.co/tCh6kBZ/34441010.gif

Aric, astute observations. Definitely agree on you about the more diffluence with shear occuring to boost convection near 98L.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection should begin to pop around the center shortly..

[toad strangler]

Local Mets talking about 98L moving up and out to the NE without any mention of it possibly traversing the peninsula beforehand.

[northjaxpro]

I think we may be seeing LLC re-formation just southeast off the coast midway between West Palm Beach and Grand Bahama Island.

[Evil Jeremy]

Local Mets talking about 98L moving up and out to the NE without any mention of it possibly traversing the peninsula beforehand.

Not surprising, given that's the only scenario the NHC has been suggesting. Local mets aren't going to deviate much from the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

I think we may be seeing LLC re-formation just southeast off the coast midway between West palm Beach and Grand Bahama Island.

yeah,

Currently circled in red is the center. circled in yellow is the area where convection "should" be filling in shortly based on a few indicators. having the LLC migrate that direction is completely possible once convection ramps up

[boca]

98L looks to be stationary.

[SFLcane]

Local Mets talking about 98L moving up and out to the NE without any mention of it possibly traversing the peninsula beforehand.

Indeed just about every model brings this over the state. That's why i am concerned about the rainfall potential

[Aric Dunn]

This already well meets the Criteria of a TD.

[GCANE]

New tower firing off.
Watching it closely.
Great inflow channels from the S and SW.
Mid-level rotation apparent to the north.

[wxman57]

Not a TD. Weak, elongated low pressure area. No organized convection. However, I do think that this will become Dorian as it tracks offshore of the Carolinas this weekend then heads out to sea like Chantal. I don't see any Gulf threat. Most of the rain should stay east of Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

on 1km vis. the last like 45 min you can see a big jump in the speed of the low level inflow from the south. it is very likely that we will see the center get pulled east towards that deep convection.


Very easily a TD right now. and likely heavy rains for most of florida as this moves over the state.

[SFLcane]

Not a TD. Weak, elongated low pressure area. No organized convection. However, I do think that this will become Dorian as it tracks offshore of the Carolinas this weekend then heads out to sea like Chantal. I don't see any Gulf threat. Most of the rain should stay east of Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/98La.JPG

Hey 57 so this models are incorrect? Most track 98L across the state.