2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Stormi]

My best guess-3-4 for September, shear lightening as well as Nino. 1 - 2 Majors for season. My guess is light overall. I could be very wrong

[Stormi]

I will make a point to check again tmw

[DioBrando]

Hammy - you've suggested that most models show at least one long-tracking system. May I ask where they place it? Just curious I'm still a bit new to this & am trying to get a handle on utilizing all of these models

The most frequent track over the last several days worth of runs has been turning north between 40 and 55 longitude and staying largely out to sea, though some runs (and we're talking 3+ weeks out here) bringing it close to New England or maritime Canada. New run should be coming out in a few hours.

Here we go.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163655758266982405

Any word on how many storms the Euro is forecasting during that time?

Whoopeeeeee

You know which name this is forecast to have? I'm guessing probably Imelda or something?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

[DioBrando]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/J2HrrHV.png

says 2017....

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/J2HrrHV.png

Can you or someone explain what the VP 200 is showing? I can’t get it to load on my phone for some reason.

[tolakram]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/J2HrrHV.png

Can you or someone explain what the VP 200 is showing? I can’t get it to load on my phone for some reason.

[AutoPenalti]

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/J2HrrHV.png

Can you or someone explain what the VP 200 is showing? I can’t get it to load on my phone for some reason.

https://i.imgur.com/nw7I3W2.png

Great thanks.

[DioBrando]

I wonder what that map translates to...

[AutoPenalti]

Can you or someone explain what the VP 200 is showing? I can’t get it to load on my phone for some reason.

https://i.imgur.com/nw7I3W2.png

Great thanks.

Looks likes anomalous upper level divergence which means stronger emerging tropical waves which, if it persists, could also weaken central and eastern trades.

[Kingarabian]

Well there's something up in the EPAC for sure. I don't know what it is. Every single storm other than Barbara has struggled immensely. We've had a plethora of invests/disturbances and nothing has been able to really materialize.

[NotSparta]

Well there's something up in the EPAC for sure. I don't know what it is. Every single storm other than Barbara has struggled immensely. We've had a plethora of invests/disturbances and nothing has been able to really materialize.

Same w/ WPAC, it's been behind. Definitely seems like a hemispheric thing, at least outside the IO

[Kingarabian]

Well there's something up in the EPAC for sure. I don't know what it is. Every single storm other than Barbara has struggled immensely. We've had a plethora of invests/disturbances and nothing has been able to really materialize.

Same w/ WPAC, it's been behind. Definitely seems like a hemispheric thing, at least outside the IO

Yeah I'm wondering if this will spill over into the Atlantic as we enter peak phase of the season.

[DioBrando]

YIKES look at the gulf...
I just realized how LOW shear and dry air is across the Gulf...




only thing is now that the waves are coming out too far north.
maybe that'll help the dry air subsidize?

[AutoPenalti]

Mid-level dry air still screaming in the MDR, nothing is going to form especially with the MASSIVE sinking branch in place. I’d wager we might have to wait till the end of September-beginning of October before we see genesis, by then it might be too late since the MDR will be, climatologically, shut down.

This season is definitely back-loaded.

[NotSparta]

Well there's something up in the EPAC for sure. I don't know what it is. Every single storm other than Barbara has struggled immensely. We've had a plethora of invests/disturbances and nothing has been able to really materialize.

Same w/ WPAC, it's been behind. Definitely seems like a hemispheric thing, at least outside the IO

Yeah I'm wondering if this will spill over into the Atlantic as we enter peak phase of the season.

If you mean the suppressed activity, it's already occurring, but if you mean being more active like the IO, it's hard to tell

[NotSparta]

Mid-level dry air still screaming in the MDR, nothing is going to form especially with the MASSIVE sinking branch in place. I’d wager we might have to wait till the end of September-beginning of October before we see genesis, by then it might be too late since the MDR will be, climatologically, shut down.

This season is definitely back-loaded.

I've been hearing early September is when the sinking branch packs its bags for a while now, though

[DioBrando]

Mid-level dry air still screaming in the MDR, nothing is going to form especially with the MASSIVE sinking branch in place. I’d wager we might have to wait till the end of September-beginning of October before we see genesis, by then it might be too late since the MDR will be, climatologically, shut down.

This season is definitely back-loaded.

I've been hearing early September is when the sinking branch packs its bags for a while now, though

Yeah and it finally goes to the WPAC

[SFLcane]

Could be a wild few weeks... Patience grasshoppers

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1163929080904835072