Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands= Is INVEST 99L

[Hurricaneman]

It’s just moved off of Africa and looks good with a good moisture envelope and the GFS modestly develops it before the Lesser Antilles so it may be something to watch the next week or so

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Somewhat impressive, but it has a harsh environment in its path, particularly when it reaches the Caribbean.

[AutoPenalti]

SAL still plowing, sinking air, mid-level dry air, screaming shear to its west...

Probably not.

[floridasun78]

SAL still plowing, sinking air, mid-level dry air, screaming shear to its west...

Probably not.

i wont worry about this wave got good fight ahead

[gatorcane]

You can easily follow this wave looking at the 850mb ECMWF loop. Has this going through the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico hours 144-168:



It’s interesting to note the GFS legacy builds an upper anti-cyclone over this wave as it moves across the Atlantic MDR even as it enters the Eastern Caribbean. Given the calendar bears watching:

[Visioen]

SAL still plowing, sinking air, mid-level dry air, screaming shear to its west...

Probably not.

i wont worry about this wave got good fight ahead

At this point it indeed looks like it, but I wouldn't count on it yet. A lot can happen in +5 days.

[Hurrilurker]

A bit far north too, isn't it?

[StruThiO]

00z fv3-gfs:



Lowest pressure I see is 1007mb. So far

[CyclonicFury]

12z GFS develops this in about 4 days. Climatology and the CCKW strongly supports genesis but it's 2019.

[DioBrando]

12z GFS develops this in about 4 days. Climatology and the CCKW strongly supports genesis but it's 2019.

What if the CCKW won't help the wave at all?
We don't want another 2013

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS develops this in about 4 days. Climatology and the CCKW strongly supports genesis but it's 2019.

Looks like a tropical storm on the model

[NDG]

GFS shows that it will be on a southerly track in between two areas of SAL which may not affect it if indeed it takes on a more southerly track. It gained some more 12z GEFS support compared to previous runs but so far no support from the Euro.

[abajan]

GFS shows that it will be on a southerly track in between two areas of SAL which may not affect it if indeed it takes on a more southerly track. It gained some more 12z GEFS support compared to previous runs but so far no support from the Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/eAJFxF2.gif

A somewhat disconcerting GIF for us in Barbados and the Windward Islands. I just finished watching Mark Sudduth's video too.

[Hammy]

12z GFS develops this in about 4 days. Climatology and the CCKW strongly supports genesis but it's 2019.

Looks like a tropical storm on the model

No support from Euro still.

[wxman57]

Legacy GFS agrees with the Euro - no development. I don't buy the "new" GFS forecast of development east of the islands.

[Hurricaneman]

Legacy GFS agrees with the Euro - no development. I don't buy the "new" GFS forecast of development east of the islands.

The thing is the GFS depicts this as a small system, one that is easily missed by models. If others come aboard then maybe it could develop, but I do remember some hurricanes the models missed due to their small size

Beryl 2018 80mph
Danny 2015 120mph

[Siker]

Legacy GFS agrees with the Euro - no development. I don't buy the "new" GFS forecast of development east of the islands.

18z Legacy GFS does develop it into a TC. Legacy has this meandering in the middle of a SAL surge, while operational GFS sends it briskly west at the leading edge of the SAL.

[AtlanticWind]

00 GFS has the wave in central Atlantic down to 1005 mb in 54 hours

Update 1002 mb 66 hours

[AtlanticWind]

00 GFS has the wave in central Atlantic down to 1005 mb in 54 hours

Update 1002 mb 66 hours

Down to 999 mb but a tiny system