2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[DioBrando]

Even more season cancel posts but I'm still adamant the gates will open. Even the most optimistic of posters have now turned bearish, and the pessimists keep rehashing the same thing over and over again. Honestly it's improving.

I'm optimistic we will reach at least H or I by the time September ends.

Things will probably pop at some point. 2013 did happen after all so that is possible. The problem is that we always have impatient fans in the stands yelling 2013 every single year. It's the tropical equivalent of "swing, you bum!" Even in slower than normal seasons there are bursts of activity. As for the models showing quiet conditions as far as the eye can see...I don't believe it. It's the opposite of the early season phantom canes we often see...which should also be disregarded. Having said all of that...I was expecting at least some rumblings by now since the bell is about to toll.

While I don't think the number of hurricanes or ACE will be as low as 2013 (we'd have to have literally just one more the rest of the season, and even the quietest long-range models show at least one long-tracking major), the chances of an overall below normal season are rapidly increasing at the moment (though we'll know for sure in another week) and something to keep in mind we're actually running well behind 2013 at the moment--that year had five storms by this point (including three in the MDR)--this year has had zero storms of tropical origin to date. That said, ironically, the last time we went into September with this low of ACE was 1967 though even that year had a few depressions in the deep tropics by this point.

If we do end up having an extremely quiet year though, ironically it seems at the moment the cause would be the polar opposite of 2013--the atmosphere never properly entered winter at the mid and lower latitudes last year, giving the summer pattern an already northward start.

Most likely name and date of this "major"?

[Hammy]

Things will probably pop at some point. 2013 did happen after all so that is possible. The problem is that we always have impatient fans in the stands yelling 2013 every single year. It's the tropical equivalent of "swing, you bum!" Even in slower than normal seasons there are bursts of activity. As for the models showing quiet conditions as far as the eye can see...I don't believe it. It's the opposite of the early season phantom canes we often see...which should also be disregarded. Having said all of that...I was expecting at least some rumblings by now since the bell is about to toll.

While I don't think the number of hurricanes or ACE will be as low as 2013 (we'd have to have literally just one more the rest of the season, and even the quietest long-range models show at least one long-tracking major), the chances of an overall below normal season are rapidly increasing at the moment (though we'll know for sure in another week) and something to keep in mind we're actually running well behind 2013 at the moment--that year had five storms by this point (including three in the MDR)--this year has had zero storms of tropical origin to date. That said, ironically, the last time we went into September with this low of ACE was 1967 though even that year had a few depressions in the deep tropics by this point.

If we do end up having an extremely quiet year though, ironically it seems at the moment the cause would be the polar opposite of 2013--the atmosphere never properly entered winter at the mid and lower latitudes last year, giving the summer pattern an already northward start.

Most likely name and date of this "major"?

Chantal, Dorian, or Erin should the latest CFS be correct--would depend on if the two weak low pressures it shows before September 8 are storms or not.

Fun note with this: We're using the same name list as 2001, and given the systems of interest (the ones that had some decent shot of developing) that year, it almost seems like this year so far is 2001 but developing the non-developing systems only (I recall there being a system in the Gulf in July that came pretty close, as well as a hybrid-type system in May in around where Andrea formed)

[DioBrando]

While I don't think the number of hurricanes or ACE will be as low as 2013 (we'd have to have literally just one more the rest of the season, and even the quietest long-range models show at least one long-tracking major), the chances of an overall below normal season are rapidly increasing at the moment (though we'll know for sure in another week) and something to keep in mind we're actually running well behind 2013 at the moment--that year had five storms by this point (including three in the MDR)--this year has had zero storms of tropical origin to date. That said, ironically, the last time we went into September with this low of ACE was 1967 though even that year had a few depressions in the deep tropics by this point.

If we do end up having an extremely quiet year though, ironically it seems at the moment the cause would be the polar opposite of 2013--the atmosphere never properly entered winter at the mid and lower latitudes last year, giving the summer pattern an already northward start.

Most likely name and date of this "major"?

Chantal, Dorian, or Erin should the latest CFS be correct--would depend on if the two weak low pressures it shows before September 8 are storms or not.

I really wanted Humberto or karen as a (fish) major tbh, this is so frustrating!

[NDG]

As forecasted by the models, shear has been coming down across the Caribbean Sea and forecasted to be low for at least the next 7 days.

[SFLcane]

As forecasted by the models, shear has been coming down across the Caribbean Sea and forecasted to be low for at least the next 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/IgM03Zc.gif

Yeah shear is letting up for now. GFS almost wants to develop a couple waves, but nothing really.

[SFLcane]

Ok this is bearish...If it comes to pass we could be looking at a record slow season which is fine by me.

[CyclonicFury]

Ok this is bearish...If it comes to pass we could be looking at a record slow season which is fine by me.

https://i.imgur.com/6OcGwHH.jpg

Actually, that's not the most unfavorable look. Rising motion over Africa should result in some strong waves into September.

[Hammy]

Any idea what's causing the stagnant pattern? Don't the sinking and rising areas generally, even if slowly, move eastward with time?

[Kingarabian]

Ok this is bearish...If it comes to pass we could be looking at a record slow season which is fine by me.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/6OcGwHH.jpg[url]

That's the control which is a singular solution out of 50 EPS members. The mean which is the average of all EPS members continues to show the sinking branch gone by Sept. 6.

[Hammy]

CFS rebounding back with a little more activity on the Monday run, at least through September 18--a weak storm in about a week in the MDR, another formative one near Florida in about a month, and a few systems of uncertain origin along with the long-tracking major it's been consistently showing on every run regardless of other activity.

[cycloneye]

This is it.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1163382407720054786

[dexterlabio]

This is it.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1163382407720054786

Interesting times ahead..this is like a "now or never" situation lol. But it would be wise to bet on very active tropics with the passage of this Kelvin wave that coincides with the climo peak in the Atlantic. Conditions may still be quite hostile out there but we have witnessed in the past years how things quickly change.

[tolakram]

I'm wondering if something like a Hurricane Dean or Felix is possible this year, especially Felix, very low latitude and delays formation until the Caribbean. It only takes one wave and favorable conditions to really ramp up the ACE.

Shear is running normal to below normal.



Overall conditions are very poor compared to 2007 so unless a wave finds a nice small pocket of favorability this probably won't happen.

Without Dean and Felix 2007 would have been way below normal.

[tolakram]

wxman57 noticed this before, but there's still something very odd about the TPW signature this year. Looks like we actually have a wave now, at least.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

[Emmett_Brown]

wxman57 noticed this before, but there's still something very odd about the TPW signature this year. Looks like we actually have a wave now, at least.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

I had missed what wxman57 said about the TPW signature... can you elaborate?

[wxman57]

wxman57 noticed this before, but there's still something very odd about the TPW signature this year. Looks like we actually have a wave now, at least.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

I had missed what wxman57 said about the TPW signature... can you elaborate?

My coworker had noticed apparent easterly movement of moisture in the Deep Tropics on the TPW loop. You can see it between 35W and Africa in today's loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

Shear is currently not too strong in the Tropical Atlantic, but the airmass is quite stable:

[Emmett_Brown]

wxman57 noticed this before, but there's still something very odd about the TPW signature this year. Looks like we actually have a wave now, at least.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2m/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&layer=700-850&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

I had missed what wxman57 said about the TPW signature... can you elaborate?

My coworker had noticed apparent easterly movement of moisture in the Deep Tropics on the TPW loop. You can see it between 35W and Africa in today's loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

Shear is currently not too strong in the Tropical Atlantic, but the airmass is quite stable:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Ah, ok, I see it now. Does look a bit odd doesn't it. Yeah, that stable air is still dominating.

[cycloneye]

August is closed.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163464123377692673

[NDG]

Look at all of the sinking motion it also forecasts for the central & EPAC, I don't know about that.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: Look at all of the sinking motion it also forecasts for the central & EPAC, I don't know about that.

SAL says, "I'm supposed to peak in late July? Not this year!"