#574 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:18 pm
Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.
As NDG posted, there is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run.
It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.
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