How many named storms will form in September?

[Ubuntwo]

In less than a week DioBrando went from one extreme to another lol

Love this place

That's because I'm so frustrated with season cancel posts. Honestly, the shear/SST models are pretty favourable, but users are claiming that we'll see about seven named storms and we'll get another 2013? I hate making decisions with my heart too much.

It's not the users, it's the models. When the 16 day GFS doesn't have as much as a depression forming in the peak of hurricane season activity, what else are you going to forecast? Each CFS run is less and less bullish on formation and pushing activity later and later in the year. Waves are forecasted to come off around 20N, most of the basin is bone dry with SAL outbreaks, and that's not going to change for at least a couple weeks. You can make a comparison to 2013, when there were some very favorable factors forecasted to make it an above-average season. But a poorly forecasted feature caused activity to be far below normal.

[northjaxpro]

Despite how unusually dead this season due to SAL and shear thus far, I have been around too long to even think that September will be in a slumber for activity all month long. Climatology will figure into this eventually, and. I have to believe that the basin will yield at least 3 named systems for the month. However, Mother Nature has been giving us curve balls aplenty with the North Atlantuc basin thus far . Oh well, we shall see what shakes down
..

I am also agreeing with those thinking that the seaon could get backloaded with activity.in October as well.

A more active October than September, then?

Yeah, that is what I am believing is going to happen late this season yes.

[DioBrando]

In less than a week DioBrando went from one extreme to another lol

Love this place

That's because I'm so frustrated with season cancel posts. Honestly, the shear/SST models are pretty favourable, but users are claiming that we'll see about seven named storms and we'll get another 2013? I hate making decisions with my heart too much.

It's not the users, it's the models. When the 16 day GFS doesn't have as much as a depression forming in the peak of hurricane season activity, what else are you going to forecast? Each CFS run is less and less bullish on formation and pushing activity later and later in the year. Waves are forecasted to come off around 20N, most of the basin is bone dry with SAL outbreaks, and that's not going to change for at least a couple weeks. You can make a comparison to 2013, when there were some very favorable factors forecasted to make it an above-average season. But a poorly forecasted feature caused activity to be far below normal.

Yeah, and soon this will be another 1983. Now all the models are pushing back the CCKW, and it looks like everything is delayed by about a month.

[DioBrando]

Despite how unusually dead this season due to SAL and shear thus far, I have been around too long to even think that September will be in a slumber for activity all month long. Climatology will figure into this eventually, and. I have to believe that the basin will yield at least 3 named systems for the month. However, Mother Nature has been giving us curve balls aplenty with the North Atlantuc basin thus far . Oh well, we shall see what shakes down
..

I am also agreeing with those thinking that the seaon could get backloaded with activity.in October as well.

A more active October than September, then?

Yeah, that is what I am believing is going to happen late this season yes.

If you say so. Do you have any idea where we might stop at, namewise?
I'm not sure if my Lorenzo prediction is too bullish now. Am now thinking Jerry.

[northjaxpro]

A more active October than September, then?

Yeah, that is what I am believing is going to happen late this season yes.

If you say so. Do you have any idea where we might stop at, namewise?
I'm not sure if my Lorenzo prediction is too bullish now. Am now thinking Jerry.

I think we can get to 10 named storms (Jerry). We have managed to sneak in late season named storms in November in recent times and heck , the way things have been, I wiuld not be stunned to see a December system. It has happened before, but very rare of course.

[DioBrando]

Yeah, that is what I am believing is going to happen late this season yes.

If you say so. Do you have any idea where we might stop at, namewise?
I'm not sure if my Lorenzo prediction is too bullish now. Am now thinking Jerry.

I think we can get to 10 named storms (Jerry). We have managed to sneak in late season named storms in November in recent times and heck , the way things have been, I wiuld not be stunned to see a December system. It has happened before, but very rare of course.

Yeah, I put Jerry too for now. Is this too bullish or seems reasonable? I've included an October system that might use up all the OHC resources and would likely hog it for itself too.
August: None
September: Chantal (2), Dorian (3), Erin (TS), Fernand (1)
October: Gabrielle (TS), Humberto (4), Imelda (2)
November: Jerry (1)

[northjaxpro]

That is about what I envision . I like what you posted there.

[DioBrando]

:uarrow: That is about what I envision . I like what you posted there.

Yep, I've always seen Humberto as that go-getter storm, irrespective of whether it's gonna be active or slow. I see him hogging up everything, all the SSTs, the OHC, take advantage of low shear, then a HUGE lull until Halloween where I might see Imelda (a GOM cat 2)
Then Jerry forming late in November.

You see the same pace or slightly different? I'm intrigued

[Monsoonjr99]

I'm going with four named storms in September. I think the lid will come off eventually and 2019 could be a very backloaded season. With the climo peak approaching, I'd consider it unrealistic to think there will be no storms at all in the near future. I think there will be one weak storm to round out August and something stronger around the September 10 peak (perhaps a cane), then 3 more systems in the latter half of September as things finally pick up. I think October could be unusually active this year and perhaps moreso than September, so I'd now give 2019 overall a near-normal 12-6-3 with four more named storms forming in October and perhaps a November system. I suppose all 3 majors would be after September 15 a la 2016 (minus Gaston).

[DioBrando]

I'm going with four named storms in September. I think the lid will come off eventually and 2019 could be a very backloaded season. With the climo peak approaching, I'd consider it unrealistic to think there will be no storms at all in the near future. I think there will be one weak storm to round out August and something stronger around the September 10 peak (perhaps a cane), then 3 more systems in the latter half of September as things finally pick up. I think October could be unusually active this year and perhaps moreso than September, so I'd now give 2019 overall a near-normal 12-6-3 with four more named storms forming in October and perhaps a November system. I suppose all 3 majors would be after September 15 a la 2016 (minus Gaston).

What are you going for, with the strongest named system? Date? Name? Path?

[cycloneye]

The topic of this poll is how many named storms will form in September and let's stick to this if anyone is going to make comments. Other topics like which one will be strong is another topic that can be discussed in another thread. Thanks for your cooperation.

[cycloneye]

Speaking about the poll,so far it has been a very good start with all the options getting votes and the participation is great with the voting only being open for a few hours.Keep it going folks and remember that voting will close on August 31 at 1:34 PM EDT.

[Chris90]

I said 5.
I'm in a place where I'm in agreement with August canceling, but I still think it'll pick up in September.
I'm thinking 5/3/2 for September.

[cycloneye]

Over 24 hours since the voting began,things are very close between some of the options and that shows the interest of the members about this question and more so as August has been inactive.Keep voting as it will be open until August 31rst at 1:34 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Only two days for the poll to close so those who have not voted dont wait for the last minute as there is an exact time to close (August 31rst at 1:34 PM EDT)

[CrazyC83]

Going with 4.

2 hurricanes, 1 of them major.

[cycloneye]

Poll closes today at 1:34 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet do so before that time.

[Ntxw]

Voted 2, quality over quantity above 20N closer to 60W and west.

[Kazmit]

I’d say 4, with 3 being of tropical origin.

[ouragans]

Said 6 but I feel I might be a little under