2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

I think it will get going between September 15th and September 30th. It could wait until the last week of September, but I'm thinking maybe around September 15th or so....

Can Humberto form around then? Unlikely that Lorenzo (my real name) would actually form this season anyway so I guess I might as well go with the other Italian-sounding name on the list. I was hoping to get a very busy September.

2001 sounds like a good analog but I believe the storms may make it farther west as a whole than 2001

[SoupBone]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1163155283457298432

Haha, what a wacky season so far. What are the models seeing, or not seeing that wouldn't allow some development?

[crownweather]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1163155283457298432

Haha, what a wacky season so far. What are the models seeing, or not seeing that wouldn't allow some development?

2 reasons why development may not happen.

1 is EPac development may be enough of a competition to prevent development.

2. Lots of wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico. If that doesn't go away, then development won't occur. Also any significant development in the eastern Pacific will produce strong wind shear in the western Gulf of Mexico.

[AnnularCane]

So what is REALLY going on? Is it really that unfavorable out there or is it just a case of models not showing anything? If it's the latter, how do we know the problem isn't just something going on with the models?

[crownweather]

So what is REALLY going on? Is it really that unfavorable out there or is it just a case of models not showing anything? If it's the latter, how do we know the problem isn't just something going on with the models?

I've wondered that myself about the models. There seems to be very little consistency in the individual models from model run to model run, both with the GFS and the Euro.

If you look at previous model forecasts for any of the particular forecast hours, you'll find pretty large differences in the surface and upper level forecast features. Sometimes it's as extreme as going from a forecast of a large upper level high to troughiness on the very next run.

[Hammy]

So what is REALLY going on? Is it really that unfavorable out there or is it just a case of models not showing anything? If it's the latter, how do we know the problem isn't just something going on with the models?

I've wondered that myself about the models. There seems to be very little consistency in the individual models from model run to model run, both with the GFS and the Euro.

If you look at previous model forecasts for any of the particular forecast hours, you'll find pretty large differences in the surface and upper level forecast features. Sometimes it's as extreme as going from a forecast of a large upper level high to troughiness on the very next run.

There still appears to be a problem with the WAM interfering with the waves for reasons unknown--the Euro has a pretty strong wave coming off, the type that would normally either develop, or open the path for the following ones to--instead it is pulled NW over cooler waters as it's about to emerge. I'm doubting this is a problem with the models given this has been the story so far this year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The fact we're seeing the models go out to day 16 and still not showing any signs of life in the MDR is a bad sign for an active season.

2019 will surpass 2014 as the slowest starting hurricane season on Friday should 97L fail to develop (which is likely).

[toad strangler]

The fact we're seeing the models go out to day 16 and still not showing any signs of life in the MDR is a bad sign for an active season.

2019 will surpass 2014 as the slowest starting hurricane season on Friday should 97L fail to develop (which is likely).

It only takes 1 to be a possible active season for many.

[AutoPenalti]

Nothing is wrong with the models. Background conditions are just not suitable for development at this time.


I think we became so spoiled with phantoms 2-3 years that now we are getting impatient when not a single storm develops.

[DioBrando]

I think it will get going between September 15th and September 30th. It could wait until the last week of September, but I'm thinking maybe around September 15th or so....

Can Humberto form around then? Unlikely that Lorenzo (my real name) would actually form this season anyway so I guess I might as well go with the other Italian-sounding name on the list. I was hoping to get a very busy September.

2001 sounds like a good analog but I believe the storms may make it farther west as a whole than 2001

Heh what about 2001

[Hammy]

FINALLY showing some signs of the monsoon moving a bit south, going out to August 28 it's been inching south a bit more each run. The question though is will this be a fluctuation or the atmosphere finally behaving the way it's supposed to.

[NDG]

About 20% EC ensemble support for weak development over in the NW GOM next week, a slight increase from last night while the GFS shows nothing.

[DioBrando]

FINALLY showing some signs of the monsoon moving a bit south, going out to August 28 it's been inching south a bit more each run. The question though is will this be a fluctuation or the atmosphere finally behaving the way it's supposed to.

where where who's saying this

[LarryWx]

Like the prior few runs, the 12Z EPS is a bit more active than the last few GEFS runs even after realizing it has ~52 members vs the ~22 of the GEFS. Of course, with the near dead GEFS, that isn't hard to do. And it still has no real strong signal at any point out 15 days. About the strongest signal I could find over the next 10 days is for a moderate chance for a TD in the E MDR, which is what the last few runs have been showing though very few of these members get to TS.
As NDG posted, there is about a 20% chance for genesis in the NW GOM next week per this run.

It is still too early imo to predict no TS+ for the rest of this month. Keep in mind that every 8/21-31 has had at least one genesis into a TS+ since 2001.

[LarryWx]

Other than one gigantic major H late this month in the 60-65W area staying OTS, the Happy Hour GEFS is another very quiet run with not too much else to speak of.

[hurricaneCW]

Other than one gigantic major H late this month in the 60-65W area staying OTS, the Happy Hour GEFS is another very quiet run with not too much else to speak of.

This definitely doesn't seem like the past 2 years, I don't see the current pattern changing much which means we could be looking at a 13/14 repeat.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing one has to watch is are the models too far north with the waves than reality like for days the current one near Africa, something to consider

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS has twin members that have TC genesis very late month and later become Hs though they stay OTS near 60W. Otherwise, not really anything to write home about.

[Hammy]

Not sure the implications but the Euro's been increasingly keen on surging the low-level westerlies at low latitudes over west Africa over the last several runs.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has a modest increase in genesis probability for very late month centered near the Bahamas to the west of an Atlantic high fwiw. These members are moving north at that point around the high into or near the SE US. All of this is very much in the just fwiw category. The main reason this is being mentioned is that the GEFS runs have been absent of significant activity. It still is a low threat at the worst right now.