What is the best hurricane model???

[stormlover2013]

Can anyone send me some data saying which one is the best or most accurate.

[Ubuntwo]

Historically the euro has been the most accurate for track, this is common knowledge. Generally the UKMet and GFS are up there too. But all of these are far exceeded in forecasting skill by official NHC forecasts and consensus models. So don't just go off of one model alone.

[WeatherEmperor]

If I had to pick one model I would say the HFIP corrected consensus or even the TVCN


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[TheStormExpert]

Are you talking just about the HWRF and HMON or all global models?

[stormlover2013]

Are you talking just about the HWRF and HMON or all global models?

All models

[AtlanticWind]

Storm2k's version of "America's Top Model"

[tolakram]

Can anyone send me some data saying which one is the best or most accurate.

None, they all have flaws in different areas. The private Florida State Super Ensemble is generally the best as it's a blend of the others with various weights applied. Most of us amateurs like to use models incorrectly, looking at their predictions and then betting which one will be more accurate. That's the exact wrong way to use a weather model. Each model has strengths and weaknesses depending on the quality of data going in and the quality of the model itself.

We've linked to this page numerous times: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_earlymdl.jpg



You can see the Euro and GFS fairly close, but both are beaten by the NHC who uses the super ensembles (blend of all models given various weights). If for some crazy reason you're limited to using only one model then except for 2016, when the UKMET did better, the Euro does a little better every year. Note that it's never done better than a 50 mile error at 48 hours, and while it's better the difference is usually 20 miles or less.

When a storm is active you can use this site: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ to compare model predictions vs actuals. It doesn't have an archive but many of us linked to this in the older storm model threads over the past two years to track model performance. Here's one I made a copy of last year for AL062018 (Florence)



AVNO is the GFS in this chart.

For Florence and it's track the GFS was consistently outperforming the Euro and the NHC. The NHC track error was probably due to the fact the super ensembles put more weight into the Euro, which is usually the right thing to do.

So if nothing else this should show that depending on one single model for a hurricane track is not a very good idea.

-or -

NAVGEM!

[USTropics]

Can anyone send me some data saying which one is the best or most accurate.

None, they all have flaws in different areas. The private Florida State Super Ensemble is generally the best as it's a blend of the others with various weights applied. Most of us amateurs like to use models incorrectly, looking at their predictions and then betting which one will be more accurate. That's the exact wrong way to use a weather model. Each model has strengths and weaknesses depending on the quality of data going in and the quality of the model itself.

We've linked to this page numerous times: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_earlymdl.jpg

[url]http://i.imgur.com/OHWLMpN.png [/url]

You can see the Euro and GFS fairly close, but both are beaten by the NHC who uses the super ensembles (blend of all models given various weights). If for some crazy reason you're limited to using only one model then except for 2016, when the UKMET did better, the Euro does a little better every year. Note that it's never done better than a 50 mile error at 48 hours, and while it's better the difference is usually 20 miles or less.

When a storm is active you can use this site: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ to compare model predictions vs actuals. It doesn't have an archive but many of us linked to this in the older storm model threads over the past two years to track model performance. Here's one I made a copy of last year for AL062018 (Florence)

https://i.imgur.com/vBJa7oW.png

AVNO is the GFS in this chart.

For Florence and it's track the GFS was consistently outperforming the Euro and the NHC. The NHC track error was probably due to the fact the super ensembles put more weight into the Euro, which is usually the right thing to do.

So if nothing else this should show that depending on one single model for a hurricane track is not a very good idea.

-or -

NAVGEM!

For http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ you can just tack on the storm identity on the end and the year. For instance, Michael from last year would be - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al142018/. You can do this for other basins (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /ep012019/) and invests as well (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al962019/)

[AtlanticWind]

Also , A lot of discussion on the forum is about model predictions of genesis of tropical systems
which is lot different then the path and intensity of an already formed tropical cyclone.

[AtlanticWind]

Many of us right now are looking out 5/10/15 days for genesis.
And then there are comments that so and so model is terrible
because it did or didn't predict the formation of a storm 7 days or so out.
That seems like only a small part of what a global models evaluation should be.

[MahFL]

King Euro leads the way, if it's not on the 10 day Euro, "forget about it", ( said with a strong New York accent).