2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Cpv17]

I'd just like something to bring us some rain to SW Houston. Only 0.4" since late June. ECMWF seasonal indicating very dry from the Caribbean through the eastern Tropical Atlantic through November. Moisture in the Gulf in Sept/Oct, though.

It’s feast or famine here in SETX.

[Aric Dunn]

a little something something popping up in the SW carrib on the 18z GFS similar to the Euro..

[Hurricaneman]

a little something something popping up in the SW carrib on the 18z GFS similar to the Euro..

Around day 4 so it’s within the realm of possibility

[Aric Dunn]

Gets on the east side if a upper low and get sheared norrth into the gulf.. going to get shoved west.

[Aric Dunn]

Or north lol

[TheStormExpert]

Another day, another Happy Hour GFS run!

[jfk08c]

Louisiana getting all the model action this season

[ronjon]

Tropics heating up..18z GFS 973 mb hurricane into New Orleans in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081318&fh=108

[TheStormExpert]

Tropics heating up..18z GFS 973 mb hurricane into New Orleans in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081318&fh=108

Hi-Res. has 970mb, but we need consistency for several runs at least to believe it.

[NDG]

18z GFS gives some credibility to some Euro of tropical development over in the western Caribbean/GOM.
Or perhaps the other way around, the Euro sniff it first if indeed they are both correct.

[NotSparta]

Tropics heating up..18z GFS 973 mb hurricane into New Orleans in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081318&fh=108

Hi-Res. has 970mb, but we need consistency for several runs at least to believe it.

Only shows up on 18z runs, and this one forms from a vorticity stream off of South America. I'm having a hard time believing this run

[Aric Dunn]

There are no more "happy hour" gfs runs. ..

[Hammy]

Is there really any point checking the 18z GFS runs

[Dylan]

Tropics heating up..18z GFS 973 mb hurricane into New Orleans in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081318&fh=108

Is this what the New York Post was warning us about yesterday??

[NDG]

Tropics heating up..18z GFS 973 mb hurricane into New Orleans in 10 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019081318&fh=108

Hi-Res. has 970mb, but we need consistency for several runs at least to believe it.

Only shows up on 18z runs, and this one forms from a vorticity stream off of South America. I'm having a hard time believing this run

Yes that's a red flag but the Euro also shows it but on Tuesday developing off of Honduras/Nicaragua border over the SW Caribbean but not as aggressive with developing it as the 18z Euro.
Last night's Euro ensembles had about 8 members developing it.

[stormlover2013]

What does 18z euro have is it out yet?

[Emmett_Brown]

GFS has been intermittently showing some development in the GOM during this time frame for a week now, so while not consistent, it's not quite a one off. This time it looks like some vorticity moves NW off the northern of South America. GFS legacy shows a weaker low further W toward Texas.

[cycloneye]

NHC does not bite.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC does not bite.

nothing really physically there to bite too. though there is a tropical wave approaching .. could be the catalyst. They will wait at least another cycle of models.

[Cpv17]

Old GFS and Euro both send this into STX as a wave. Op GFS is all over the place. No consistency with this model.