2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS is back to being interesting..

[cycloneye]

There is a new thread for wave that GFS and maybe ECMWF try to develop so go here.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a new thread for wave that GFS and maybe ECMWF try to develop so go here.

Yes... though in this case, it is the Riding that develops..

which wave that may develop is not really important with type of ridging in place.

[NDG]

One thing is for certain nothing is coming off africa for a week or so with that large low over central africa.

The itcz from the cape verde islands east is moving the wrong direction all the way to nearly central africa lol..

The wave that just recently left africa that the GFS want to develop something later on is the last one for a few days to a week.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

You are looking at the low level flow from the monsoon on the TPW loop, the GFS clearly shows TWs to continue moving east to west across Africa over the next couple of weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

One thing is for certain nothing is coming off africa for a week or so with that large low over central africa.

The itcz from the cape verde islands east is moving the wrong direction all the way to nearly central africa lol..

The wave that just recently left africa that the GFS want to develop something later on is the last one for a few days to a week.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

You are looking at the low level flow from the monsoon on the TPW loop, the GFS clearly shows TWs to continue moving east to west across Africa over the next couple of weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/KhdcrDd.gif

yeppers.. I was looking at all levels .... low level flow is important also the flow goes up through the 700mb layer..above that , as you pointed out, the wave energy is still east to west. lol point is that is not what you want to see..

[Blown Away]

GFS almost into September and nothing, except for Monday 18z run! I guess we go through this exercise early August every year and boom something pops before the end of August. Lots of dust out there.

[crownweather]

There are actually a couple of things that I actually find intriguing when looking at guidance.

1st is a few members of the European ensemble guidance pulling convection associated with the ITCZ near 40W first westward into the SW Carib & then NW into the Gulf of Mexico middle and end of next week. Most Euro ensemble members drive this convection into the EPac though.



Second thing that is interesting is the 45 Day Euro ensemble surface pressure anomaly chart. If that anomaly chart is correct, mid-late September could be hopping around here with what I interpret as at least 4 active storms at once for a while & 1 could be a long tracker.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That's almost exactly the path of the storm that flooded south Louisiana in 2016.

Hermine?

No, I'm sorry, and I should've been more specific. Not a named storm. It was a tropical depression/low that approached from the East and traveled West. Right around this time of year. It set up shop right on top of I-10 from Crowley to Baton Rouge and poured about 30" in two days in some places. 25" around my immediate vicinity. It was a major flood event that warranted national disaster declaration. A real life changer for us and tens of thousands of my neighbors.

Yes I remember that, it became a bit of a political firestorm because it wasn't declared a disaster but the rural flooding was horrible.

[DioBrando]

There are actually a couple of things that I actually find intriguing when looking at guidance.

1st is a few members of the European ensemble guidance pulling convection associated with the ITCZ near 40W first westward into the SW Carib & then NW into the Gulf of Mexico middle and end of next week. Most Euro ensemble members drive this convection into the EPac though.

https://i.imgur.com/vbNTSf9.png

Second thing that is interesting is the 45 Day Euro ensemble surface pressure anomaly chart. If that anomaly chart is correct, mid-late September could be hopping around here with what I interpret as at least 4 active storms at once for a while & 1 could be a long tracker.

https://i.imgur.com/IFwBLGc.png

will those storms be chantal, dorian, erin and fernand, or will storms form earlier than that blue blob you're interpreting?

[crownweather]

There are actually a couple of things that I actually find intriguing when looking at guidance.

1st is a few members of the European ensemble guidance pulling convection associated with the ITCZ near 40W first westward into the SW Carib & then NW into the Gulf of Mexico middle and end of next week. Most Euro ensemble members drive this convection into the EPac though.

https://i.imgur.com/vbNTSf9.png

Second thing that is interesting is the 45 Day Euro ensemble surface pressure anomaly chart. If that anomaly chart is correct, mid-late September could be hopping around here with what I interpret as at least 4 active storms at once for a while & 1 could be a long tracker.

https://i.imgur.com/IFwBLGc.png

will those storms be chantal, dorian, erin and fernand, or will storms form earlier than that blue blob you're interpreting?

That area around the 26th also is interesting too from the area from 0 to 60W longitude.

[DioBrando]

There are actually a couple of things that I actually find intriguing when looking at guidance.

1st is a few members of the European ensemble guidance pulling convection associated with the ITCZ near 40W first westward into the SW Carib & then NW into the Gulf of Mexico middle and end of next week. Most Euro ensemble members drive this convection into the EPac though.

https://i.imgur.com/vbNTSf9.png

Second thing that is interesting is the 45 Day Euro ensemble surface pressure anomaly chart. If that anomaly chart is correct, mid-late September could be hopping around here with what I interpret as at least 4 active storms at once for a while & 1 could be a long tracker.

https://i.imgur.com/IFwBLGc.png

will those storms be chantal, dorian, erin and fernand, or will storms form earlier than that blue blob you're interpreting?

That area around the 26th also is interesting too from the area from 0 to 60W longitude.

Alrighty. Sounds reasonable.
So the longtracker can be anywhere between Dorian to Gabby then, I'm taking it?

[DioBrando]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1161274817460559873?s=09

Found a brilliant thread on Twitter from meteorologist Yaakov Cantor:

"Even the EPS ensemble mean MSLP chart, which is smoothed out more than the control, suggests at least some increase in Atlantic activity (mainly east Atlantic) last few days of Aug into first week of Sep, with a more significant increase starting second week of Sep."

[crownweather]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1161274817460559873?s=09

Found a brilliant tweet on Twitter

Yeah, that's a conversation myself, Andy and Yaakov were having about the 45 day EPS chart I posted.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is showing a wave coming off of Africa Friday night and developing a low at 7 days so maybe another one to watch

[Aric Dunn]

There is a small circ developing just east of new Orleans south of mobile... in a lower shear zone..

[wxman57]

12Z GFS = sounds of crickets chirping... (same as 12Z ECMWF)

[Aric Dunn]

Euro texas coast from a completely different origin lol. Weak but still noteworthy.

The ridging is going to be strong on the east coast for some time now.. if anything develops. It will likely be a US threat.

[mcheer23]

Euro texas coast from a completely different origin lol. Weak but still noteworthy.

The ridging is going to be strong on the east coast for some time now.. if anything develops. It will likely be a US threat.

Looks like the same feature the GFS-Legacy is showing.

[Cpv17]

Euro texas coast from a completely different origin lol. Weak but still noteworthy.

The ridging is going to be strong on the east coast for some time now.. if anything develops. It will likely be a US threat.

Looks like the same feature the GFS-Legacy is showing.

Looks to be increasing in strength a good bit as it comes ashore. Nothing major, but definitely could have time to close off.

[wxman57]

I'd just like something to bring us some rain to SW Houston. Only 0.4" since late June. ECMWF seasonal indicating very dry from the Caribbean through the eastern Tropical Atlantic through November. Moisture in the Gulf in Sept/Oct, though.