2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[DioBrando]

The Atlantic looks dead right now, but this basin can turn active in a flash in mid-late August. Every year around this time the discussion is usually the same. SAL, dry air in the MDR, nothing on the models, etc. Then climatology kicks in and by the last day of August you're usually tracking something with more systems on the models.

Rule #1 of the tropics: Never season cancel before August 20.

1) what are the potential analogs of 2019?
2) this same thing happened last year too and all of a sudden, florence and the gang turns up. this year is nothing like 2013 or 2014.

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic looks dead right now, but this basin can turn active in a flash in mid-late August. Every year around this time the discussion is usually the same. SAL, dry air in the MDR, nothing on the models, etc. Then climatology kicks in and by the last day of August you're usually tracking something with more systems on the models.

Rule #1 of the tropics: Never season cancel before August 20.

1) what are the potential analogs of 2019?
2) this same thing happened last year too and all of a sudden, florence and the gang turns up. this year is nothing like 2013 or 2014.

2019 doesn't have many good analogs. I've heard 1990, 1992, 2003, 2004, 2012 and 2014 all mentioned.

[DioBrando]

The Atlantic looks dead right now, but this basin can turn active in a flash in mid-late August. Every year around this time the discussion is usually the same. SAL, dry air in the MDR, nothing on the models, etc. Then climatology kicks in and by the last day of August you're usually tracking something with more systems on the models.

Rule #1 of the tropics: Never season cancel before August 20.

1) what are the potential analogs of 2019?
2) this same thing happened last year too and all of a sudden, florence and the gang turns up. this year is nothing like 2013 or 2014.

2019 doesn't have many good analogs. I've heard 1990, 1992, 2003, 2004, 2012 and 2014 all mentioned.

I thought so
but what do you reckon we're going to most likely resemble?

[CyclonicFury]

1) what are the potential analogs of 2019?
2) this same thing happened last year too and all of a sudden, florence and the gang turns up. this year is nothing like 2013 or 2014.

2019 doesn't have many good analogs. I've heard 1990, 1992, 2003, 2004, 2012 and 2014 all mentioned.

I thought so
but what do you reckon we're going to most likely resemble?

Hard to say. I just feel confident we will see an uptick late Aug-Oct.

[DioBrando]

2019 doesn't have many good analogs. I've heard 1990, 1992, 2003, 2004, 2012 and 2014 all mentioned.

I thought so
but what do you reckon we're going to most likely resemble?

Hard to say. I just feel confident we will see an uptick late Aug-Oct.

agreed, could even be a sharp and short, but intense activity period with an abrupt start and end based on the models i'm using.

[DioBrando]

the main thing right now is to wait for the suppressed mjo phases to leave, and a cckw and good mjo phase would come into the atlantic come last few days of august/september.

so far, i could see the following happening based on cfs shear and sst models and taking into account the cckw/expected mjo phases:

august: chantal/dorian
september: erin/fernand/gabby/humberto/imelda
october: jerry/karen/lorenzo
november: melissa/nestor

bolded names denote intense storms, italics denote non-majors.
red denotes most intense storm of the year.
please don't take this post for granted.

[psyclone]

I could be wrong here but it just seems as if hurricane seasons are becoming increasingly back loaded. If that's true it could work for or against someone depending on geography. Right now sand is really dumping through the hourglass for a place like the western gulf...Florida not so much. Then again a late start could = a never start but I don't think so. Even if the season ends up below normal...an eventual burst of storms is a near certainty...and if those storms focus in the subtropics, close in development and a heightened landfall risk could very well be on the docket.

[DioBrando]

I could be wrong here but it just seems as if hurricane seasons are becoming increasingly back loaded. If that's true it could work for or against someone depending on geography. Right now sand is really dumping through the hourglass for a place like the western gulf...Florida not so much. Then again a late start could = a never start but I don't think so. Even if the season ends up below normal...an eventual burst of storms is a near certainty...and if those storms focus in the subtropics, close in development and a heightened landfall risk could very well be on the docket.

well-said
especially in the face of global warming

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1160933962052710402

[DioBrando]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1160933962052710402

one point for a possible active 2019 atlantic hurricane season.

[DioBrando]

I wonder if 1961 would make a good analog for 2019 (which I hope won't happen)

[wxman57]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

[crownweather]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

Interesting that all analog years had at least 1 tropical cyclone threat for the US East Coast. 1976 with Belle, 1979 with David (then Frederic into the Alabama coast), 1993 with Emily and 1991 with Bob. Finally, 1968 had Gladys into west Florida during October.

[NDG]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

How about that all your analog years had a -AMO during the peak of the hurricane season? Did you take that into consideration?

[DioBrando]

i mean, obviously the ictz looks just about dead:


but this is all because of the suppressed mjo phase which is currently located in asia and not africa/india.

[DioBrando]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

How about that all your analog years had a -AMO during the peak of the hurricane season? Did you take that into consideration?

oh and not to forget they were all during the cold period (before 1995)

[DioBrando]

[wxman57]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

Interesting that all analog years had at least 1 tropical cyclone threat for the US East Coast. 1976 with Belle, 1979 with David (then Frederic into the Alabama coast), 1993 with Emily and 1991 with Bob. Finally, 1968 had Gladys into west Florida during October.

Yes, and I pointed that out in my outlook presentations this spring. I just got my coworker's new analogs based on warm-neutral in Nino 3.4:

1958 - 12/7/3 109 ACE
1959 - 14/7/2 77 ACE
1960 - 8/4/2 73 ACE
1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1980 - 11/9/2 149 ACE
1981 - 12/7/3 100 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE

Average is 10/6/2 with 86 ACE for those analogs. I plotted all Caribbean & U.S. hurricane landfalls for these analogs (below). I'm not seeing a pattern that is similar to 1980 out there. Allen was the first hurricane I ever worked. A number of hits along the East U.S. Coast in the analogs, despite the relatively low numbers and ACE for the analogs. Like I said, lower than average numbers doesn't mean a decreased risk of a hurricane landfall, necessarily.

[wxman57]

oh and not to forget they were all during the cold period (before 1995)

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS continues the theme of well below average activity based on its entire run. Whereas that doesn't tell me that there won't be a TC or TCs during the next two weeks or that there won't at least be a threat of one forming/invests (I still expect at the very least two invests), it sure is good to see from my standpoint and may very well verify.

Could we go the entire August without even a single TC? That very rare feat is looking more and more possible though by no means likely at this still early point. An average of three TCs form during August. The last time there was an August with fewer
than 2 geneses was way back in 1997, when there were none during a very strong El Nino year. Before 1997, you have to go all the way back to 1961 for a season with no August geneses. So during the satellite era, only 2 of 59 seasons had no August geneses or ~3% of them. So, it wouldn't at all be wise to bet on this right now. All but one of 1998-2018 had at least one genesis August 21-31. So, again, it is still way too early to consider it likely August won't have any. But as of today, the chance is obviously far higher than normal based on no activity thus far along with quiet models.

Edit: So, 1997 and 1961 had no August geneses. The last time before that was way back in 1941. Then you have to go back to 1929. Then interestingly enough, 1923-1919 all had none on record! Others back to 1851 include 1914, 1912, 1907, 1905, 1902, 1884, 1876, 1868, and 1857.