2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM has a low forming in as little as 12 hours. offshore. fairly chaotic. but the point is we may start to see the beginnings of it in a short period of time.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON has a weak low in 18 to 24 hours that meanders for a long time before developing and moving ashore. on 12z. 18z so far looks similar.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1160658988163354624

[NDG]

18 GFS is similar to the 12z Euro with weak development over the NE GOM. It starts off with good UL conditions through the end of the week but it eventually starts having problems with northerly shear as the death ridge retrogrades back to the SW US.

It continues to show weak development of the TW exiting Africa when it gets into the western basin.

[Hammy]

GFS back to nothing from the trough

[Hurricaneman]

GFS back to nothing from the trough

But the one thing it does have is beyond 8 days is multiple areas that may need to be watched,
The wave currently on the African west coast, the wave behind it and a wave coming off at 336hrs so basically this may be the start of a really active period from the 20th of this month possibly into October

[Tailspin]

Just something too look out for latter Ens see two long range possibilities.

https://imgur.com/yH06O82

https://imgur.com/vQKMZpk

[Aric Dunn]

Gfs is still relatively the same. Just some slight differences that keep the trough farther north.

[NDG]

0z Euro is still persistent that the weak low pressure will move inland then back offshore and to retrograde westward with northerly windshear affecting it by then.

[TheStormExpert]

The 6z GFS is once again crickets through August 28th.

[stormlover2013]

its august 12th, as soon as you know it the the season will heat up, all it takes is 1 storm to cause devastation.

[wxman57]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[Emmett_Brown]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Is this a season cancel post from one of our veteran pros prior to August 15th? Intriguing...

[wxman57]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Is this a season cancel post from one of our veteran pros prior to August 15th? Intriguing...

Of course not, but I see nothing to suggest an above-normal season numbers-wise. We may well see 10 or fewer named storms this season (depending on the NHC's current naming criteria). There have been many seasons in the past with fewer than normal storms but with major impacts (1957, 1965, 1992, etc.). I think the MDR will remain dead, but that shifts development potential toward the west Caribbean, Gulf, and off the SE U.S. Coast, where there won't be as much warning before landfall.

[DioBrando]

I'm just going to mute any season cancel posts... this is getting annoying... it will get busier... #seasoncancel2019cancelled

EDIT: all models are showing that THE TREND IN CONDITIONS are improving, VERY SLOWLY, in the atlantic. refer back to that graph i posted. there is NOTHING, or VERY LITTLE, to suggest that numbers will be below-average (e.g. less than 10) in 2019. in fact, conditions might be set to rival active seasons according to twitter.

i will explain on my next post.

[Emmett_Brown]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Is this a season cancel post from one of our veteran pros prior to August 15th? Intriguing...

Of course not, but I see nothing to suggest an above-normal season numbers-wise. We may well see 10 or fewer named storms this season (depending on the NHC's current naming criteria). There have been many seasons in the past with fewer than normal storms but with major impacts (1957, 1965, 1992, etc.). I think the MDR will remain dead, but that shifts development potential toward the west Caribbean, Gulf, and off the SE U.S. Coast, where there won't be as much warning before landfall.

Ok, thanks for the clarification. Good point about the potential for near land developments and impacts... I agree that quiet MDR seasons often push the development region closer toward land areas. However, I think there is still a good chance at an average or slightly above average season, perhaps more from an ACE perspective.

[DioBrando]

referring back to my previous post, here's what i found on the models:

1) good sst's
apart from that little blue blob off africa, the sst's aren't actually that bad:

this surfing website displays pretty good sst's right this instant:


2) wind shear decreasing
wind shear is going away as you can see from the many blue patches on this graph. there are large blue patches right until november:


3) lower upper-level winds
look at those beautiful violet colors:


so as you can see the overall trend for inhibiting factors is DECREASING. i've cancelled season cancel.

[SFLcane]

It's nearly mid-August, and all we have to discuss is the possibility of a weak frontal low off the SE U.S. Coast (or NE Gulf) that could be classified as a TD or a weak TS as it tracks out to sea. MDR through Caribbean is absolutely dead. TPW loop shows nothing - no waves. My coworker pointed out that the moisture over west Africa on the TPW loop is moving from west to east (backwards). Not sure why NOAA bumped its numbers up last week.

NHC 5-Day Map
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Yeah it's entirely possible we go the entire month of August with no TCs but we shall see

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1160899966283345921

[NotSparta]

Again, the subseasonal look is about as unfavorable as you can get, and IMO it's a bit of a knee jerk reaction to think that those conditions would lead to a dead season. The subseasonal look appears to get significantly more favorable, as we head into peak season