2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

The MDR does look quite bad right now, but this is probably the worst it will. Afterwards, the combination of a more favorable CCKW (suppressed is overhead), the rising branch of MJO (there's currently a sinking MJO branch) and climo will lead to a moistening in that region

[DioBrando]

FINALLY



This looks to be meh-ish to me


And I don't like that cold blob off Africa


Seems to be HORRIBLE here (but again I don't take this model for granted too much as it literally displays July 2020 being in an Ice Age)


NME (not the magazine) also seems to show a cold blob too off the coast of Africa

Now that huge wad of dry air needs to go away

[DioBrando]

At the moment as things stand, I would personally see a Chantal and Dorian before the beginning of September, but both being relatively weak.

F/G/H could probably be more intense storms about mid-Sep based on the patterns alone.

[Hammy]

NME (not the magazine) also seems to show a cold blob too off the coast of Africa

Now that huge wad of dry air needs to go away

I think the CanSIPS can be tossed, looks like it ingested some bad data and got an extreme cold bias--this is July 2020 for instance.

[Hurricaneman]

NME (not the magazine) also seems to show a cold blob too off the coast of Africa

Now that huge wad of dry air needs to go away

I think the CanSIPS can be tossed, looks like it ingested some bad data and got an extreme cold bias--this is July 2020 for instance.
https://i.imgur.com/ZP6zFmj.png

Looks bugged to me, hopefully the issue is fixed with that model

[USTropics]

NME (not the magazine) also seems to show a cold blob too off the coast of Africa

Now that huge wad of dry air needs to go away

I think the CanSIPS can be tossed, looks like it ingested some bad data and got an extreme cold bias--this is July 2020 for instance.
https://i.imgur.com/ZP6zFmj.png

Looks bugged to me, hopefully the issue is fixed with that model

Yea, definitely a bad run:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1157019820807917568

[chaser1]

Not to be an alarmist, but the long range pattern is getting a little more concerning for land areas in the W NATL basin should something develop. Here are the ingredients that could cause trouble as we get toward the peak in a few weeks:

- Stable air and marginal SSTs in the MDR preventing immediate genesis/recurvature... waves will likely get further W before developing
- Above average SST's in the Caribbean, GOM and W ATL
- Below average Caribbean shear
- Further W extension of the Bermuda High
- A return of vertical instability in W ATL basin late Aug, thru early Sept
- Nino has ended, and activity in the WPac, CPac and EPac has been near normal or a little below average ACE wise

While these conditions are not guaranteed to materialize, and if they do, storms are not guaranteed, the writing is certainly on the wall that our quiet conditions could be ending soon, and when the switch flips, whatever forms may find its way close to land. I have noticed in years past that when conditions are quiet in August, the peak in September thru October can be particularly busy. Just my personal observation.

The only variable (above) that I'm not sure how to justify might be regarding how/why the Western extension of the Bermuda high may be anticipated to build and/or shift more to the west with time. It certainly may, but the pattern thus far would generally seem to suggest that storm tracks would tend to move along and parallel the U.S. Conus or move NNE. Granted, if we were to begin to see evidence of westward building 500mb heights, then I'd agree that this could be foreboding (especially with a number of storm formations potentially to form out of the MDR and closer to P.R. or north of the Greater Antilles. For now though and until I begin to see evidence of dryer air abating and a more westward steering evolve, I have to think that the point of cyclogenesis that might pose the greatest risk to the CONUS could potentially be the Central or Western Caribbean sometime between mid Sept. and mid October. Conditions could well change in 2-3 weeks but i'll need a bit more evidence before jumping on that bandwagon.

[USTropics]

Not to be an alarmist, but the long range pattern is getting a little more concerning for land areas in the W NATL basin should something develop. Here are the ingredients that could cause trouble as we get toward the peak in a few weeks:

- Stable air and marginal SSTs in the MDR preventing immediate genesis/recurvature... waves will likely get further W before developing
- Above average SST's in the Caribbean, GOM and W ATL
- Below average Caribbean shear
- Further W extension of the Bermuda High
- A return of vertical instability in W ATL basin late Aug, thru early Sept
- Nino has ended, and activity in the WPac, CPac and EPac has been near normal or a little below average ACE wise

While these conditions are not guaranteed to materialize, and if they do, storms are not guaranteed, the writing is certainly on the wall that our quiet conditions could be ending soon, and when the switch flips, whatever forms may find its way close to land. I have noticed in years past that when conditions are quiet in August, the peak in September thru October can be particularly busy. Just my personal observation.

The only variable (above) that I'm not sure how to justify might be regarding how/why the Western extension of the Bermuda high may be anticipated to build and/or shift more to the west with time. It certainly may, but the pattern thus far would generally seem to suggest that storm tracks would tend to move along and parallel the U.S. Conus or move NNE. Granted, if we were to begin to see evidence of westward building 500mb heights, then I'd agree that this could be foreboding (especially with a number of storm formations potentially to form out of the MDR and closer to P.R. or north of the Greater Antilles. For now though and until I begin to see evidence of dryer air abating and a more westward steering evolve, I have to think that the point of cyclogenesis that might pose the greatest risk to the CONUS could potentially be the Central or Western Caribbean sometime between mid Sept. and mid October. Conditions could well change in 2-3 weeks but i'll need a bit more evidence before jumping on that bandwagon.

Never a guarantee, but the long-range models/weekly CFS have been hinting at this. Instead of eroding the western peripheries of the high pressure area or getting blocked, the next few shortwave troughs will be higher in latitude and past to the north, amplifying/shoving the subtropical ridge westward:

[SFLcane]

Ok this would be a big problem if there was something out there to take advantage of it. Not much on the models thankfully

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the TPW loop, it appears something unusual is going on in west Africa. Not seeing the westward progression of precipitation.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

[Hammy]

Looking at the TPW loop, it appears something unusual is going on in west Africa. Not seeing the westward progression of precipitation.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

Monsoon trough seems to be around 22-24N so looks like low-level westerlies to the south.

[cycloneye]

The timeframe keeps moving ahead.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1160899966283345921

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1160895606182830080

[cycloneye]

1969.

 https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/status/1160883691687763969

[NDG]

Once subsidence settles down I think this season not only will it be active in September it will go well into October with activity, IMO

[NDG]

The timeframe keeps moving ahead.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1160899966283345921

Just in time for the TW exiting Africa to reach the western basin with rising motion moving in.

[facemane]

1969.

https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/status/1160883691687763969

Camille hit on August 17th in 1969. That's pretty much early in the season. I know I'll never forget that night.

[TheStormExpert]

1969.

https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/status/1160883691687763969

Wouldn’t last year resembled 1969 a little better with Hurricane Michael?

[DioBrando]

at least we're getting somewhere



and that huge wad of shear over america is expected to clear off based on the previous graph too


the main problem now is dry air


once the waves start propagating, they'll clear things up.

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic looks dead right now, but this basin can turn active in a flash in mid-late August. Every year around this time the discussion is usually the same. SAL, dry air in the MDR, nothing on the models, etc. Then climatology kicks in and by the last day of August you're usually tracking something with more systems on the models.

Rule #1 of the tropics: Never season cancel before August 20.