2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[NDG]

The tropical wave that the GFS has been on and off developing over the western Bahamas/FL Straights/GOM in its long range forecast is coming off of Africa. The Euro also shows the wave tracking towards the Bahamas but shows no development because it shows easterly shear over it elongating it when it nears FL while the GFS shows an UL anticyclone building on top of it on the runs that it shows development.

[OuterBanker]

Yesterdays 18z and today's 12z are similar but don't concern me. Both times the next run dropped it.
What does concern me though is that all the models are showing what appears to be the retrogression of the east coast through.
Instead of safe distance off the coast diverting storms away the storms instead ride the coast.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Chantal this weekend. Dorian and Erin by the end of the month.

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is safe to say that the northern gulf needs to be watched on how far south the stalled boundary sags in 72 to 96 hrs ( per the GFS average). as well as the coast east coast areas.

just how far south will it go.......... Barry Part Deux...

[HurricaneAndre2008]

12z ukmet starting to respond to frontal genesis
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.3N 87.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2019 29.3N 87.0W WEAK

[northjaxpro]

Also, keep a watch on the surface trough drifting southward toward North Florida and the Northeast GOM. Last night's 00Z GFS and this morning's 06Z GFS were trying to spin-up a homebrew 1009-1012 mb Low in Apalachee Bay by Wednesday-Thursday timeframe of tbis week

[NDG]

Yesterdays 18z and today's 12z are similar but don't concern me. Both times the next run dropped it.
What does concern me though is that all the models are showing what appears to be the retrogression of the east coast through.
Instead of safe distance off the coast diverting storms away the storms instead ride the coast.

Yep, both GEFS & EPS show building ridging across the NE US/SE Canada in the 7-14 day range.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

:uarrow: Yep, plows a Cat.1 hurricane into Tampa. Maybe the new-GFS is happy hour at 18z as well?

Well this far out...i think tampa is safe

new gfs or legacy, same result, plenty of south florida strikes..right on climatology schedule the tropics are awaking from a slumber

GFS does this every year remember? In two weeks nothing happens.

We remember......pepperridge farms remembers

[Aric Dunn]

That is a very strong ridge on the GFS run that starts building in around 120 hours and lasting for the rest of the run.. not good.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro does have a low forming over the panhandle in 48 to 72 hours. but it does not appear to make it offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

i take that back... it starts moving wsw...

[Hammy]

12z euro does have a low forming over the panhandle in 48 to 72 hours. but it does not appear to make it offshore.

Euro did the same with Barry I believe, several runs not making it out over the Gulf in the days leading up to the low emerging.

I'd also keep an eye on the GFS wave over Africa near the end of the run, it's the first time I've seen that much tight vorticity show up in a wave (and at a lower latitude at that.)




and preceded by a massive monsoonal flow for a few weeks as 1999's onset of activity was.

[ouragans]

I'd also keep an eye on the GFS wave over Africa near the end of the run, it's the first time I've seen that much tight vorticity show up in a wave (and at a lower latitude at that.)

I'm monitoring that wave too because it was on the CFS some weeks ago, crossing the Lesser Antilles by August 17th. Definitely worth being followed in the next few days

[Aric Dunn]

well now things just got more interesting.. both GFS and EURO buildings large east coast ridges..

first signs of the gulf low start in 24 to 36 hrs per EURO

[crownweather]

12Z Euro actually has 3 areas of potential interest in 10 days from now. (1) near the central Gulf Coast, (2) near the Mid-Atlantic coast and (3) a low pressure system coming off of Africa.

[crownweather]

12Z Euro actually has 3 areas of potential interest in 10 days from now. (1) near the central Gulf Coast, (2) near the Mid-Atlantic coast and (3) a low pressure system coming off of Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/TxUuype.png

To add, the northern Gulf area of interest forms middle to end of this week and the Mid-Atlantic areas of interest forms initially late this coming week.

[NDG]

Closer look at the 12z Euro, it has cyclogenis just offshore of FL Panhandle then onshore before going offshore again, ending over southern LA.
Also notice coming into the picture the tropical wave that is currently moving off of Africa which the GFS shows developing as it approaches FL.

[Aric Dunn]

If we look currently where the boundary is sitting... you can see it already well offshore. So we have to watch were the low forms.. over land or offshore.

it is already getting that teardrop shape.

[NDG]

BTW, the Euro shows it to be just like Barry, a sheared mess.

[SFLcane]

well now things just got more interesting.. both GFS and EURO buildings large east coast ridges..

first signs of the gulf low start in 24 to 36 hrs per EURO

Yep but no tc’s as of yet to take advantage on the models.