Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

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northjaxpro
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#41 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:39 pm

:uarrow: Sure Fl Sun it will be the likely outcome., which was expected anyway. However, we did manage to get a weak surface circulation.out of this today. It made for me an interesting day of monitoring at least. The GFS, GFS Legacy, the Canadian and even the ICON did perform well in showing a weak Low forming in the SE GOM in the last 48 -72 hours.

Even the NAM had weak development in this area in the same past timeframe. How about that?

Lots of rain to impact the Florida peninsula this weekend. It already has impacted areas with significant rainfall totals.
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#42 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:42 pm

northjaxpro wrote::l: Sure the likely outcome, but we did manage to getva wrak surface circulation.out of this. It made for me an interesting day of monitoring at least. The GFS, GFS Legacy, the Canadian and even the ICON did perform well in showing a weak Low forming in the SE GOM in the last 48 -72 hours.

Even the NAM had weak development in this area in the same past timeframe. How about that?

Lots of rain to impact the Florida peninsula this weekend. It already has impacted areas with significant rainfall totals.

my weatherman here in south fl dont see tropical coming out this only rain mess for weekend
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#43 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:52 pm

Just a trough and no model support whatsoever. Convection looks to be poofing with the diurnal minimum. Going to need to wait a bit longer before something substantial forms in the Atlantic and when that happens, I would expect some good consistent model support.
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#44 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:56 pm

Convection has to come back.
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#45 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:13 pm

It did have support Gatorcane from the reliable GFS for weak development.

I will give credit when its due and I followed closely in that the other models I mentioned did have weak development. This might not be a bigger deal for some others out there, and the other models I mentioned do not have the pedigree in TC forecasting like the GFS, EURO and UKMET. But they had it 48-72 hours ago and I will astutely.point out that fact.
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#46 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:27 pm

One heck of an UL trough over the central GOM, no development here for the next 7 days at least.
Very strange UL sypnosis for this time of the year, probably something to do with the stacked ridge over NM & western TX.
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Re: Surface Trough/Possible LOW Development across the Southeastern GOM

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:22 pm

NDG wrote:One heck of an UL trough over the central GOM, no development here for the next 7 days at least.
Very strange UL sypnosis for this time of the year, probably something to do with the stacked ridge over NM & western TX.

CFS has it gone by mid August:
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