ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[hurricanehunter69]

This system has a vigorous circulation. Delayed development actually has me concerned! Delayed development means this system has a better chance of getting farther west.

[jlauderdal]

starting form storm round low pressure https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ima ... g?9.6320.7

John morales says no issue with this system

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[jlauderdal]

This system has a vigorous circulation. Delayed development actually has me concerned! Delayed development means this system has a better chance of getting farther west.

TUTT in its path, lower your concern level

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[CyclonicFury]

Convection seems to be increasing west of the broad center tonight. Too soon to write off this one. We'll see what it looks like in the morning.

[abajan]

This system has a vigorous circulation. Delayed development actually has me concerned! Delayed development means this system has a better chance of getting farther west.

That's been my concern too.

[Aric Dunn]

So much for the suppression side of the kelvin wave...

[Aric Dunn]

This system has a vigorous circulation. Delayed development actually has me concerned! Delayed development means this system has a better chance of getting farther west.

TUTT in its path, lower your concern level

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Never lower your concern... hurricanehunter69 you are correct. Models do not have a handle of this system.

[StruThiO]

An elongated low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form well east of the Lesser Antilles by
early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by Tuesday and Wednesday as the system approaches the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[floridasun78]

[Hammy]

Big drop in the developmet percentages, no surprise.

[Pebbles]

NOT saying this is gonna go Harvey, but didn't that invest that became Harvey only ramp up when it got near the mainland or something...I can remember posts pointing to its total dissipation with little support from the models that it would regenerate.. But it did anyway and even packed a punch. My point is systems are tagged as invests for a reason so we should look onto every possibilities or scenarios.

I didn't want to reply to this in the Model's thread since it would be off topic. I was in TX with my daughter for her now fiance graduated Air Force BMT when Harvey hit. Because of years of tracking recon and Storm2k I knew it was coming and coming in strong before most did. The locals were looking at me like I was off my rocker when I would say something... until the TV started to say what I had already been saying for HOURS. It's become no minor joke between my family and friends that every time I get near a coast a tropical storm/hurricane hits. This time MY DAUGHTER will be graduating Air Force BMT next weekend. We are heading for TX. The jokes are already heavily flying (have been for a couple weeks) about what hurricane we are bringing this time. This thing better DIE or I'm just throwing in the towel. Seriously someone should just hire me to attract hurricanes for them to track if something does take off and hits TX.

[GCANE]

Convection firing off with some lightning as it approaches 50W.
NW side of CoC.
Starting to enter more unstable air.

[GCANE]

Strongest part of the LL Vort has now shifted north of 10N.
Coriolis force is starting to grab this.
Circulation is still broad.
I expect slow spin up next 24 to 48 hrs.

[GCANE]

Looks like it will track along a North to South shear axis with no associated PV Streamer.
Convection will likely persist or strengthen on the north side of the CoC.

[GCANE]

A few cells showing moderate to heavy rain rate

[GCANE]

Improving as seen on MIMIC-TPW
Looks like it is pulling up moisture from the equator

[GCANE]

Convection on the NW side of the CoC will likely sweep out SAL like a snow plow

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS discussion:

As has been discussed at length in previous discussions, we are
closely monitoring a potent tropical wave that currently resides
about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antillies. This wave has been
named Invest96 (Invest => short for investigative area) by the NHC
(National Hurricane Center), and naming it as an invest system is
the how the NHC formally recognizes this system as a storm of
interest and subsequently initaites specific procedures to more
carefully monitor it. The NHC currently has a 50% chance for
development into a tropical depression over the next 5 days.
However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with regards
to the eventual development and track of this system. Long range
models suggest a fairly hostile enviroment for further
development next week, due to higher wind shear and substantial
dry air across the region. Given this, both the GFS and European
models for the past day have consistantly suggested not a tropical
depression, but simply a potent open tropical wave passing
through beginning Tuesday night and through Wednesday. Again, we
are still 5 days out, so uncertainty is high, but as we enter the
weekend and see more consistancy in the forecast models, that
uncertainty will decrease. Regardless of the uncertainty of the
intensity and track, it appears wet weather will be expected for
Wednesday, with the potential for more flooding across the region.

[GCANE]

[gatorcane]

Even 40% seems generous:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next
week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos