ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind is that past 3-5 days is really hard to predict the UL environment. I think conditions may not be that bad to dissipate it but not the best either for much strengthening as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

[Hurricaneman]

Something to keep in mind is that past 3-5 days is really hard to predict the UL environment. I think conditions may not be that bad to dissipate it but not the best either for much strengthening as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

it’s also going through a convectively suppressed kelvin wave which means it will have to wait until past the Antilles to have any chance for development

[TheStormExpert]

Something to keep in mind is that past 3-5 days is really hard to predict the UL environment. I think conditions may not be that bad to dissipate it but not the best either for much strengthening as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

it’s also going through a convectively suppressed kelvin wave which means it will have to wait until past the Antilles to have any chance for development

Yep!

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1157016490639593472

[SFLcane]

Yep, should be deactivated withing the next couple of TWO'S. Batch of clouds now

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1156965216636342273

[northjaxpro]

The power of ole' Uncle SAL. Really took the life fast out of 96L before it really ever got to chugging along.


Well, it could be middle August or later afterall for development out in the MDR.

[CyclonicFury]

Yep, should be deactivated withing the next couple of TWO'S. Batch of clouds now

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1156965216636342273

I doubt it will be deactivated that soon. It's going to be interesting to see how it looks when it gets to around 50-55°W.

[abajan]

FWIW the associated low is now centered a couple degrees south of what had been stated in earlier TWDs. Excerpt from the latest TWD: "A 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near 08N38W." Hmm

[gatorcane]

70% chance of development suddenly seems much too high at this point. Seems they will need to drop that number a decent amount on the next update. Big time model bust on this one.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

70% chance of development suddenly seems much too high at this point. Seems they will need to drop that number a decent amount on the next update. Big time model bust on this one.

I'm not questioning it. NHC has more analysis than we do

[wxman57]

I believe that as it nears the Caribbean it will run right into the high wind shear (30-50 kts) associated with the leading edge of the TUTT. It looks terrible now on satellite and in the TPW loop. I'd drop development chances down to 20-30% if it can survive passing the TUTT and makes it NE of the Bahamas (which is higher than my coworkers), and I've been doing this for 40 years...

[rickybobby]

Went from a cat 4 to being dead in 24 hours. Models still need some improvements.

[wxman57]

Yep, should be deactivated withing the next couple of TWO'S. Batch of clouds now

Note that a chance of development (or not) is not a criterion for declaring or deactivating an invest. An invest only means that the NHC wants to run some models on the feature.

[DioBrando]

three words:

THANK
U
NEXT

[cycloneye]

Surprised they stayed at 20/70.

An elongated low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Slow development of this system is expected during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and
a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred miles east
of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now forecast to
become less favorable for additional development by early next week
as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

The NHC still gives it a high chance. Regardless of the current lackluster satellite presentation or the recent model runs, it's still too soon to say 96L is dead.

[NDG]

The same TUTT that may shred it to pieces or not will bring it back to life in 2-3 days.

Edit: probably close to 3-5 days.

[abajan]

Some convection is returning, but it's probably just the usual diurnal stuff which will wane after sunrise. We'll see.

[MetroMike]

Like was mentioned by the NHC earlier development is expected but hostile conditions are ahead for it.
That was the condition of today at least.
May flip again tomorrow.

[chaser1]

I still think there's a reasonable chance of development.............................. once it's north of 20N.

[floridasun78]

starting form storm round low pressure