2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

It's season cancel season.

Right on time

[SoupBone]

It's season cancel season.

Right on time

Then put your little hand in mine....

[DioBrando]

2013-posting, anyone?

[DioBrando]

Would rather track a season containing one Eddy 1996 rather than a season with 99 sets of Invest 96L tbh

[Hammy]

Today's CFS run showing practically nothing but a few strong waves/weak storms until early October, with September being extremely quiet. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201908010000&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

The recent runs have been the same.

[CyclonicFury]

Today's CFS run showing practically nothing but a few strong waves/weak storms until early October, with September being extremely quiet. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201908010000&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

The recent runs have been the same.

Wasn't it showing a very active peak a week or so ago? Long range models are very volatile.

[DioBrando]

Today's CFS run showing practically nothing but a few strong waves/weak storms until early October, with September being extremely quiet. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201908010000&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

The recent runs have been the same.

Wasn't it showing a very active peak a week or so ago? Long range models are very volatile.

Hence I don't bother with em

[Hammy]

Today's CFS run showing practically nothing but a few strong waves/weak storms until early October, with September being extremely quiet. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201908010000&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

The recent runs have been the same.

Wasn't it showing a very active peak a week or so ago? Long range models are very volatile.

It was showing an active late August and September, back in June if I rememember. I these from time to time to get an idea of the trends, and it's not often too far off out to about 6-8 weeks, albeit if you chart the actual tracks (low resolution as they are, you'll have to piece together and estimate) you'll probably end up with something completely different.

Though it did show a major hurricane getting pulled north (NE over Florida to be specific) during late September/early October last year, during several runs in early September so sometimes it'll score a hit.

I plotted them, sort of just for fun and sort of to give an idea (ignoring mid-latitude because it's impossible to tell on here if they're tropical or not), basic trend is lengthy quiet period pretty much through the peak, and then a backloaded season--with a lot of the stronger activity closer to land. But obviously take with a grain of salt being extremely long range as it is.

[DioBrando]

Today's CFS run showing practically nothing but a few strong waves/weak storms until early October, with September being extremely quiet. https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201908010000&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

The recent runs have been the same.

Wasn't it showing a very active peak a week or so ago? Long range models are very volatile.

It was showing an active late August and September, back in June if I rememember. I these from time to time to get an idea of the trends, and it's not often too far off out to about 6-8 weeks, albeit if you chart the actual tracks (low resolution as they are, you'll have to piece together and estimate) you'll probably end up with something completely different.

Though it did show a major hurricane getting pulled north (NE over Florida to be specific) during late September/early October last year, during several runs in early September so sometimes it'll score a hit.

https://i.imgur.com/Z1JXv9Z.png I plotted them, sort of just for fun and sort of to give an idea (ignoring mid-latitude because it's impossible to tell on here if they're tropical or not), basic trend is lengthy quiet period pretty much through the peak, and then a backloaded season--with a lot of the stronger activity closer to land. But obviously take with a grain of salt being extremely long range as it is.

Names of these storms are, assuming they all get named, are?

[Hammy]

Wasn't it showing a very active peak a week or so ago? Long range models are very volatile.

It was showing an active late August and September, back in June if I rememember. I these from time to time to get an idea of the trends, and it's not often too far off out to about 6-8 weeks, albeit if you chart the actual tracks (low resolution as they are, you'll have to piece together and estimate) you'll probably end up with something completely different.

Though it did show a major hurricane getting pulled north (NE over Florida to be specific) during late September/early October last year, during several runs in early September so sometimes it'll score a hit.

https://i.imgur.com/Z1JXv9Z.png I plotted them, sort of just for fun and sort of to give an idea (ignoring mid-latitude because it's impossible to tell on here if they're tropical or not), basic trend is lengthy quiet period pretty much through the peak, and then a backloaded season--with a lot of the stronger activity closer to land. But obviously take with a grain of salt being extremely long range as it is.

Names of these storms are, assuming they all get named, are?

1-3 would be Chantal, Dorian, and Erin; 4 (green GoM system) would be Fernand, 5 (pink GoM system) Gabrielle, 6 (long-tracker) Humberto, 7 (Opal-type track) Ingrid, 8 (NW Carib) Jose, Katia tan, and Lee the formative blue one.

[DioBrando]

It was showing an active late August and September, back in June if I rememember. I these from time to time to get an idea of the trends, and it's not often too far off out to about 6-8 weeks, albeit if you chart the actual tracks (low resolution as they are, you'll have to piece together and estimate) you'll probably end up with something completely different.

Though it did show a major hurricane getting pulled north (NE over Florida to be specific) during late September/early October last year, during several runs in early September so sometimes it'll score a hit.

https://i.imgur.com/Z1JXv9Z.png I plotted them, sort of just for fun and sort of to give an idea (ignoring mid-latitude because it's impossible to tell on here if they're tropical or not), basic trend is lengthy quiet period pretty much through the peak, and then a backloaded season--with a lot of the stronger activity closer to land. But obviously take with a grain of salt being extremely long range as it is.

Names of these storms are, assuming they all get named, are?

1-3 would be Chantal, Dorian, and Erin; 4 (green GoM system) would be Fernand, 5 (pink GoM system) Gabrielle, 6 (long-tracker) Humberto, 7 (Opal-type track) Ingrid, 8 (NW Carib) Jose, Katia tan, and Lee the formative blue one.

But would humberto or imelda be the more intense of the two?

[DioBrando]

this is honestly getting really frustrating. wouldn't it hurt just to produce another gert, eddy, felix (95) and those types of storms? i might as well go season cancel shall we get one more bust. see ya'll in 2020.

[Hammy]

Names of these storms are, assuming they all get named, are?

1-3 would be Chantal, Dorian, and Erin; 4 (green GoM system) would be Fernand, 5 (pink GoM system) Gabrielle, 6 (long-tracker) Humberto, 7 (Opal-type track) Ingrid, 8 (NW Carib) Jose, Katia tan, and Lee the formative blue one.

But would humberto or imelda be the more intense of the two?

The resolution makes it difficult to tell, but given it's higher on the Gulf view Humberto would likely be the stronger, should these tracks (or something similar) play out.

[CyclonicFury]

Climatology suggests a ramp-up in activity usually begins around August 20. I don't see any reason why that won't happen this year. If the Atlantic still looks like this a month from now with nothing on the horizon, then season cancelling is more appropriate, but it's just too early to make definitive conclusions about how favorable the MDR is. I remember hearing similar discussions when 99L struggled in the MDR in early August in 2017, and the MDR went on to have three major hurricanes and two Category 5s.

[toad strangler]

Climatology suggests a ramp-up in activity usually begins around August 20. I don't see any reason why that won't happen this year. If the Atlantic still looks like this a month from now with nothing on the horizon, then season cancelling is more appropriate, but it's just too early to make definitive conclusions about how favorable the MDR is. I remember hearing similar discussions when 99L struggled in the MDR in early August in 2017, and the MDR went on to have three major hurricanes and two Category 5s.

A month from now is only Sept 1st. Nothing on the horizon then at that point means only mid to late September. But then there is October. Season cancel posts are amateurish no matter when they are made even if they end up verifying.

[dexterlabio]

Just like how the old saying goes, "it ain't over until it's OVER"

[TheStormExpert]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

[SoupBone]

Climatology suggests a ramp-up in activity usually begins around August 20. I don't see any reason why that won't happen this year. If the Atlantic still looks like this a month from now with nothing on the horizon, then season cancelling is more appropriate, but it's just too early to make definitive conclusions about how favorable the MDR is. I remember hearing similar discussions when 99L struggled in the MDR in early August in 2017, and the MDR went on to have three major hurricanes and two Category 5s.

A month from now is only Sept 1st. Nothing on the horizon then at that point means only mid to late September. But then there is October. Season cancel posts are amateurish no matter when they are made even if they end up verifying.

Every. Single. Year.

Then put your little hand in mine....

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

2017 had a similar ACE through July and August and look what happened. 2004 didn't have a single named storm until July 31. 1998 didn't even reach the B storm until August 17 and finished hyperactive in ACE. 1999 did not reach the B storm until August 18 and it also finished hyperactive in ACE. Most years don't produce a lot of ACE in June and July. I'm surprised 2019 is behind 2015 and 2017.

[DioBrando]

The Atlantic is struggling and it shows.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1157281630106447873

2017 had a similar ACE through July and August and look what happened. 2004 didn't have a single named storm until July 31. 1998 didn't even reach the B storm until August 17 and finished hyperactive in ACE. 1999 did not reach the B storm until August 18 and it also finished hyperactive in ACE. Most years don't produce a lot of ACE in June and July. I'm surprised 2019 is behind 2015 and 2017.

so you think it's gonna be heavily backloaded in 2019 then?