ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I seriously wonder what's the point of these hurricane models (especially the HWRF)? Always blowing everything into a doomsday Cat.4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
bamajammer4eva wrote:Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing
Part of that is the tutt and also going over Hispaniola and Cuba but the one thing I also noticed is the 6zGFS is showing this near the central GOM this run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:bamajammer4eva wrote:Hmm Euro drops it and new GFS does too. Its barely even August so maybe much ado about nothing
Part of that is the tutt and also going over Hispaniola and Cuba but the one thing I also noticed is the 6zGFS is showing this near the central GOM this run
Yeah that is what should be taken out of the 6z gfs.... central gulf.. and legacy is nw carrib... so yeah
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.
Thank you Aric, I agree. One problem we have on Vieques and PR (think Maria) is when the NHC starts getting wishy washy such as still having it at 10/70% but lowering the color to Yellow, it confuses many and then they let their guard down and may ignore possible new warnings in the coming days. I constantly stress to people to monitor Storm2k!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Also one thing to consider with the GFS is if this goes north of its track it gets sheared by the TUTT, goes on track verbatim it can’t strengthen or form due to land interaction but if this goes into the Caribbean without too much land interaction this may have a chance to become something significant so it’s wait and see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Yeh I'm not fixated on strength this far out, but the westward trend is concerning.
6z GFS:
6z GFS:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:I wouldn't get too caught up in the models going poof... this happens nearly everytime.... also remember that both models ensemble members had plenty that went poof when the operational was not. They are COMPUTER models after all and there are a lot of variables that change. They are highly susceptible to the butterfly effect.
Rather, looking at reasons why they either carry or drop development in the 7 day period is most important, too far ahead of time to look at anything else really.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
With it looking like crap this morning you have to give some possibilities of the latest Euro and 06z GFS of it not developing at all verifying.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
00z gfs eye popping. 06 hrs nada.
Cmc, Euro nada.
Windshield wiper on high and it's not even raining.
Cmc, Euro nada.
Windshield wiper on high and it's not even raining.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
HWRF has been performing horrible this season so far, way too aggressive. But it will be right once a system finds the right UL conditions to bomb out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
OuterBanker wrote:00z gfs eye popping. 06 hrs nada.
Cmc, Euro nada.
Windshield wiper on high and it's not even raining.
I thought that only applied to the noodles.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
90 hour 6z euro simulated vis.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
gfs legacy and hwrf have been bombing out systems for yearsNDG wrote:
HWRF has been performing horrible this season so far, way too aggressive. But it will be right once a system finds the right UL conditions to bomb out
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