Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[GCANE]

I believeGFS-Legacy is depicting the LL-Vort structure better than the other models.
Here, it has it as a Carib Runner.

[GCANE]

Good mid-level moisture, keeping convection firing below 10N

[Aric Dunn]

I guess no one noticed the 00z euro has the ridge extended much farther west.

[crownweather]

00Z Euro Ensembles seems to have 2 clusters. 1 that takes future 96-L out and away into the open Atlantic & a second cluster that tracks it into the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS discussion about the wave.

For Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, our attention turns to
the next tropical wave expected to impact the region. Long range
forecast models project this wave to be a potent one, with the
potential to develop into a more organized tropical disturbance.
At this point, there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the
intensity of this system. However, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the region, as well as gusty
winds and small stream and urban flooding. Given the potential for
this system to develop a more organized closed circulation, we
will be keeping a close eye on it as we get closer to the event to
get a better handle on any impacts it may have across the region.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156516399269011456

[N2FSU]

6z GFS about 20mb stronger:

[USTropics]

06z GFS and 00z ECMWF have a similar thumb ridge extending over the Bahamas. The trough over the EC is able to erode the western periphery to allow for a recurve, but timing, strength (how far south it digs), and orientation will be important to watch. Looking at the ECMWF ensembles, those that are further west have a stronger thumb ridge and a displaced trough to the NE. As always, this far out it's a wait and see.

06z GFS


00z ECMWF

[AubreyStorm]

Up...

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Why is this not an Invest yet?

[SFLcane]

Why is this not an Invest yet?

Lol... Stewart not on shift. Seriously though up to 50% not sure why there’s no invest up yet.

[Frank2]

My guess since there is almost a zero percent of development the next several days due to SAL there is adequate reason not to make it an Invest just yet...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156516399269011456

By the time it gets to the Bahamas there is still a very pronounced trough over the SE.. As of now models have been persistent with this

[jconsor]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156516399269011456

By the time it gets to the Bahamas there is still a very pronounced trough over the SE.. As of now models have been persistent with this

https://i.imgur.com/VYmy96i.jpg

As far as I see it - in order to have any significant chance of landfall, it will either have to speed up, remain weak for quite a while (til Bahamas) or better yet - both.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156516399269011456

By the time it gets to the Bahamas there is still a very pronounced trough over the SE.. As of now models have been persistent with this

https://i.imgur.com/VYmy96i.jpg

It depends on the orientation. If it’s a sharper trough then that would be a problem down the road.

[plasticup]

00Z Euro Ensembles seems to have 2 clusters. 1 that takes future 96-L out and away into the open Atlantic & a second cluster that tracks it into the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/j8TkQwK.png

By "open Atlantic" you mean Bermuda. Most of those show a near-direct hit. This is the classic setup for a Bermuda storm.

[toad strangler]

A trough depicted like this would kick that storm out into the open Atlantic like a 65 yard field goal to end the game for CONUS.

[SFLcane]

Close call for sure...

[ouragans]

Why is this not an Invest yet?

Generally it's when there's 20% at 48 hrs

[AutoPenalti]

That shortwave is key on the GFS.