BobHarlem wrote:More likely: This thing hits Hispaniola and never does anything.
Less Likely: This forks/splits into two entities and the north shield takes over after the southern circulation dies off.
Interaction with Hispaniola can be a double-edged sword. A weak system like this with no true low-level identity currently, it could help consolidate a new low-level flow closer to the shear aided convection. Certainly a more developed system, interaction with Hispaniola is detrimental. Difficult for models to forecast how vorticity interacts and streams downslope off the mountains.