ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

#321 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:16 pm

Cloud tops are warming, convection is weakening. I haven't seen any evidence of a well-defined LLC with organized convection. Thus, no TD.

#322 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:Cloud tops are warming, convection is weakening. I haven't seen any evidence of a well-defined LLC with organized convection. Thus, no TD.

I agree, it looks as though it may be about to go poof here soon. Though, I do believe that a LLC, rather weak I might add, does exist. Doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.

#323 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:20 pm

I'm loving these simultaneous "It's dying" and "It's strengthening" expert takes.

#324 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:21 pm

CoC relocated.
Pushed back east and a bit north.

Aric Dunn · #325 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:23 pm

GCANE wrote:CoC relocated.
Pushed back east and a bit north.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4906/sLnyMZ.png

Center is very clear and well defined. Radar showing convection building and curving around center offshore. Convection is waning farther from center while building closer to the llc. Signs of organizing even more.

#326 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:26 pm

unapologetic member of squad 57 here. please don't waste a name or number on this. It sure is putting up a fight though...so credit must be given..Hopefully it runs out of time and doesn't cause much trouble for anyone...both of which seem likely outcomes at this point..

#327 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:27 pm

First time in a while I see the storm discussion thread have more activity than the models thread. :wink:

#328 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:30 pm

94L looks better than TD 5 in EPAC. May not have a well defined circulation but at least convection is much closer to its coc.

pgoss11 · #329 Postby **pgoss11** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:30 pm

The difference of opinion is staggering with this system. :double:

ronjon · #330 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:34 pm

pgoss11 wrote:The difference of opinion is staggering with this system.

I think you'll always see those differences in the early development of a system - that's what makes this site so fun for us weather nerds! :lol:

#331 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:36 pm

NDG wrote:94L looks better than TD 5 in EPAC. May not have a well defined circulation but at least convection is much closer to its coc.

https://i.imgur.com/KuBSqRc.gif

Can easily see low level streamlines. If it wasn't for a trough to pick it up soon, the GFS solution from about a week ago where this ends up in the gulf and blows up could have materialized.

#332 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:38 pm

I see a broad poorly-defined low west of the weakening convection. It looked better 6 hours ago. Saying it looks better than the East Pac TD isn't saying much, and it's incorrect. The East Pac TD at least does have a better-defined LLC. 94L is mostly SE wind with nothing in the west side.

#333 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:42 pm

Cloud tops are cooling rapidly on those towers on the NW tip of Andros.

The sudden warming of the cloud tops farther out may be indicative of an impulse UL divergence due to a sudden increase of updraft hitting the top of the troposphere. This is evident as how they dispersed out radially from the CoC as though hit by a shock wave.

#334 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:45 pm

Not one ship to the south of the weak LLC to confirm any west winds, very shallow waters to the west of Andros Island, the reason why.

Aric Dunn · #335 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:47 pm

GCANE wrote:Cloud tops are cooling rapidly on those towers on the NW tip of Andros.

The sudden warming of the cloud tops farther out may be indicative of an impulse UL divergence due to a sudden increase of updraft hitting the top of the troposphere. This is evident as how they dispersed out radially from the CoC as though hit by a shock wave.

Yeah waning convection on the outer bands has led to convection firing right around the center.

#336 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:48 pm

Very easy to see on VIS, the LL in-feed tightening up just off the west coast of Andros.
Towers firing right on top of it.

Weatherboy1 · #337 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:48 pm

Certainly breezier here than it was 6/7 hours ago when it was still, humid, and hot! But this looks like another one of those partially sheared, borderline TD (or eventually, at most, TSs) that seem to always turn NW then N then NE off the east coast. If it were a month from now and this thing was moving slower? Then maybe a more "interesting" scenario ...

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPBI.html

CyclonicFury · #338 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:52 pm

I'm not convinced NHC will upgrade 94L to a TD with the recent decrease in convection.

#339 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:53 pm

A couple of small cells firing over and near northern Andros. Broad, poorly-defined LLC is only 90 miles from Miami and you wouldn't know it in the coastal obs. This is no TD, and it has probably already peaked. Chantal will come in August.

#340 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:53 pm

Whole north half of Andros is lighting up.

ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

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