ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Trof axis remains west of the convection. The development potential may be on Wednesday as it accelerates out to sea to the northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

http://wxman57.com/images/94Ld.JPG

Look at the zoomed in loop I just posted, clearly west to east moving low level clouds to the south of suspect COC, and not from any outflow boundaries. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

More evidence with a zoomed in loop that there's a weak closed LLC over the northern end of Andros Island.

https://i.imgur.com/ISIa5Lq.gif

Yeah combine that with surface data from earlier. It is most likely closed and with deep convection slowly becoming deeper.
Will be interesting to watch

[NDG]

More evidence with a zoomed in loop that there's a weak closed LLC over the northern end of Andros Island.

https://i.imgur.com/ISIa5Lq.gif

Yeah combine that with surface data from earlier. It is most likely closed and with deep convection slowly becoming deeper.
Will be interesting to watch

I think land interaction with Andros Island is helping to tighten up the circulation this morning little by little, there's definitely west winds to the south of the COC, too bad there's not even one personal wx station in Andros Island.

[Aric Dunn]

Trof axis remains west of the convection. The development potential may be on Wednesday as it accelerates out to sea to the northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

http://wxman57.com/images/94Ld.JPG

Look at the zoomed in loop I just posted, clearly west to east moving low level clouds to the south of suspect COC, and not from any outflow boundaries. IMO.

NhC will have no choice but to up the chances. Likely to 75 to 90 percent. With advisoried at 5pm ... assuming convection does not collpase which it does not appear it is.

[wxman57]

Trof axis remains west of the convection. The development potential may be on Wednesday as it accelerates out to sea to the northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

http://wxman57.com/images/94Ld.JPG

Look at the zoomed in loop I just posted, clearly west to east moving low level clouds to the south of suspect COC, and not from any outflow boundaries. IMO.

Yeah, I see that. I don't think it's too significant. No surface convergence there. Convection is racing off to the NNW, which is why you can see the little swirl. I think the best shot at development may be after it merges with the cold front and heads out to sea to the NE on Wednesday. Maybe not as a tropical system.

[SouthDadeFish]

I too see the swirl near Andros Island that others are seeing. The fact that convection continues to develop despite the unfavorable diurnal timing right now is an indication the disturbance and vorticity is more robust than yesterday. Dare I say I would put the odds of genesis closer to 50% at this time. Let’s see if convection persists near this swirl of interest (SOI? Lol.).

[GCANE]

Starting to see CCW rotation on Mid-Level WV, SW of Andros.

[Emmett_Brown]

A nice feeder band of sorts is starting to line up to the W of the wave axis, approaching the SE FL coast, giving it more of "the look"

[SFLcane]

You can clearly see the LLC spinning in this loop...will it amount to much probably not until its way north in the middle of no were.

[Aric Dunn]

A nice feeder band of sorts is starting to line up to the W of the wave axis, approaching the SE FL coast, giving it more of "the look"

Curved bands are developing in all quads. Well on its way

[OuterBanker]

I agree with wxman. My only concern is that is stays in the Gulf stream as it parallels the Fl to NC coasts.
I really don’t think it will cause any weather along the coasts and will be east weighted until it develops somewhere north of Hatteras.
It could kick up the surf for the surfers I’m hoping.

[GCANE]

A nice feeder band of sorts is starting to line up to the W of the wave axis, approaching the SE FL coast, giving it more of "the look"

Curved bands are developing in all quads. Well on its way

Sometimes I look under the microscope and don't see the bigger picture.
Very much firing heavy convection in that "band".
This may go once it hits the water.

[JPmia]

um... just looking at it on Satellite.. it has that comma look for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

A nice feeder band of sorts is starting to line up to the W of the wave axis, approaching the SE FL coast, giving it more of "the look"

Curved bands are developing in all quads. Well on its way

Sometimes I look under the microscope and don't see the bigger picture.
Very much firing heavy convection in that "band".
This may go once it hits the water.

Yeah it is should start to deepen pretty quick until shear hits it. I think it will probably come in around west palm before turning north then ne

[GCANE]

Air around this is running 3500 to 4500 CAPE.
Plenty of fuel for the fire.

Convective cap over FL has lifted with clear skies.
CAPE about 3000 to 3500.

Good chance of fireworks this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

New center might be developing near nassau under the deep convection.

Check out th wind switch

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

[TheAustinMan]

I'm a little surprised that nobody's posted imagery from the radars we have in the Bahamas. The timestamp below is off of my computer (US Central) I believe. Clearly, there's at least some vorticity going on in the cloud motions.

1.1 MB. Source: BahamasWeather.org.bs

[GCANE]

RAP showing very little if any shear just west of Andros.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm a little surprised that nobody's posted imagery from the radars we have in the Bahamas. The timestamp below is off of my computer (US Central) I believe. Clearly, there's at least some vorticity going on in the cloud motions.

1.1 MB. Source: BahamasWeather.org.bs
https://i.imgur.com/WyVOM7t.gif

When .. what.. radar in rhe Bahamas lol

[floridasun78]

running out time if keep going west it not far from coast line of south fl i see aric dunn hoping become ts snice sunday but think out time good next invest aric dunn