ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Red crosshairs indicate the small southward-moving eddy. Really, just a trof axis today. I expect it to skirt the east coast of Florida over the next 24 hrs then turn north and northeast tomorrow night/Wed as the cold front approaches. No Gulf visit for this disturbance.

[SFLcane]

I place the coc right over Andros Island. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/sALmpA7.gif

You had it right a bit earlier NDG. I agree with your position.

Convection trying to rap around were you placed the llc.

[Aric Dunn]

I place the coc right over Andros Island. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/sALmpA7.gif

You had it right a bit earlier NDG. I agree with your position.

Convection trying to rap around were you placed the llc.

The circ NDG and i have if you watch visible closely and zoom with computer. Stalled along the coast and back built to the east . Looks like it got pulled to the convection. We should see a feesh burst of convection soon.

Said convection should fire off to east of the circ shortly

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you 57 about the pending turn northwest later today and north to northeast tomorrow with the front coming down.

I have it a bit better chance of developing (I think it is already at TD status now)

[NDG]

You can see it quite clearly before it get covered by clouds. 1km visible.
https://i.ibb.co/ZBNmsQp/Screenshot-20190722-081937-Firefox.jpg

Yep, I see it now that I have zoomed in.

[artist]

What about the distinct turning at 25/66 ?

[tarheelprogrammer]

What about the distinct turning at 25/66 ?

Different system, but it is no doubt spinning away. Lots of vorticity with these waves, just too much dry air. If the dry air ever goes away, it is game on.

[NDG]

Red crosshairs indicate the small southward-moving eddy. Really, just a trof axis today. I expect it to skirt the east coast of Florida over the next 24 hrs then turn north and northeast tomorrow night/Wed as the cold front approaches. No Gulf visit for this disturbance.

http://wxman57.com/images/94Lb.JPG

I agree, even if it makes it to Monroe County or even to the extreme SE GOM a turn torwards the NE will happen with such a deep trough coming over the eastern & SE US.

[SFLcane]

Even though its a bit more organized it's mostly diurnal i bet convection weakening already.

[northjaxpro]

I no longer believe 94L will make it into the SE GOM. It will begin to parallel the FL East Coast later today and tonight and north and eventual northeast to.by tomortow night.

[TheStormExpert]

Still very disorganized.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1153285522636333056

[Aric Dunn]

Still very disorganized.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1153285522636333056

No. That is old and just no. We have radar at this point and.

[NDG]

I wonder why they still have not come out with a 12z best track position? They must be waiting for more vis satellite pics to come in before making a decision, IMO.

[NDG]

Still very disorganized.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1153285522636333056

No. That is old and just no. We have radar at this point and.

I cannot believe M Ventrice posted that pictue, is only 7 hours old

[NDG]

12z position

Invest 94L
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 22, 2019:

Location: 24.6°N 77.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[tolakram]

Floater just moved over it. It takes until 12 frames or so to fix map, until then the disturbance is obviously over eastern Kentucky.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1677.4237670898438&y=810.4682312011719

[NDG]

Based on the latest 12z Best Track position by the NHC.

[wxman57]

I agree with you 57 about the pending turn northwest later today and north to northeast tomorrow with the front coming down.

I have it a bit better chance of developing (I think it is already at TD status now)

I see a trof axis west of all convection, no circulation, so no TD now. Convection east of Andros Island is weakening. No low there.

[NDG]

Floater just moved over it. It takes until 12 frames or so to fix map, until then the disturbance is obviously over eastern Kentucky.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1677.4237670898438&y=810.4682312011719

Good one
Little by little images of the actual position is coming in.

[Aric Dunn]

I think we are about to get a center reformation off the nw side of andros island. Storm motion is interesting up there and low level cu curvature