ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Convection tried to flare up late this afternoon into this early evening, but dry air primarily remains the obstacle in which 94L just will not be able to overcome.

So in all likelihood, unless we see something form on the tail end of the decaying frontal boundary in the GOM in the next several days, we will wait a little while longer for Chantal's arrival.

[floridasun78]

Convection tried to flare up late this afternoon into this early evening, but dry air primarily remsins the obstscle in which 94L just will not be able to overcome.

So in all likelihood, unless we see something form on the tail end of the decaying frontal boundary in the GOM in the next several days, we will wait a little while longer for Chantal's arrival.

likely by second week of aug

[Aric Dunn]

[floridasun78]

https://i.ibb.co/Lx6ngSt/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Bahamas-ntmicro-00-46-Z-20190722-map-plot-30-1n-10-100.gif

what try tell us? it look like on life support even nhc say it is and anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Really struggling against dry air and unfavorable upper level winds- but will keep an eye on it as it goes over the Bahamas waters just because it’s close to Florida and is going to enhance my rain chances even without development.

[Kingarabian]

Hmm.

[GCANE]

Strong convection firing off as it starts to interact with an UL trough to its NW.
Strong towers could get this spinning on the surface.
Looking at IR, there appears to be some helicity with them.
Something to watch today.

[GCANE]

Looking at the CIMSS 850mb vort time frames:
It is defintely headed west into the straits and seems to be picking up some steam.
500mb vort ahead of it seems to be dissipating.
UL conditions, once it gets in the GOM, will determine if it can strengthen.

[northjaxpro]

94L is trying afterall to make a comeback overnight and early this morning. Convection re-fired overnight and early this morning as 94L has slowed its forward motion the past 6-8 hours. Also, shear looks to have dropped off considerably as well. Convection now developing closer to the LLC in the Central Bahamas currently. NHC did bump back up the probability back to 20% on their 2:00 a.m. TWO. It looks as if 94L may reach the FL Straits late today and enter extreme South Florida early Tuesday traversing west the next 12-24 hours.

This is the best 94L has looked to this point, and 94L will have the next 24-30 hour small window to take advantage of a lighter wind shear environment and warm Gulf Stream ssts to possibly become a TD or minimal TS today through tomorrow. It still has brief window of time to possibly develop before southwesterly shear increases ahead of the frontal system which will drop down to North Florida area before stalling out by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Conditions will rapidly become unfavorable for development by tomorrow night.

[Aric Dunn]

And there we go..

[Aric Dunn]

94L is trying afterall to make a comeback overnight and early this morning. Convection re-fired overnight and early this morning as 94L has slowed its forward motion the past 6-8 hours. Also, shear looks to have dropped off considerably as well. Convection now developing closer to the LLC in the Central Bahamas currently. NHC did bump back up the probability back to 20% on their 2:00 a.m. TWO. It looks as if 94L may reach the FL Straits late today and enter extreme South Florida early Tuesday traversing west the next 12-24 hours.

This is the best 94L has looked to this point, and 94L will have the next 24-30 hour small window to take advantage of a lighter wind shear environment and warm Gulf Stream ssts to possibly become a TD or minimal TS today through tomorrow. It still has brief window of time to possibly develop before southwesterly shear increases ahead of the frontal system which will drop down to North Florida area before stalling out by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Conditions will rapidly become unfavorable for development by tomorrow night.

The Bahamas were the place..

[GCANE]

Looking better on latest Multi-Sat IR Analysis

[Aric Dunn]

It has really slowed down. Has not moved much in the past 7 hours

[northjaxpro]

Aric, I actuallly gave up on it last night before going to bed. thinking the dry air would be too much for it to overcome. I should have known better than that given where 94L is right now. It really came together over the Central Bahsmas indeed. I tell you the Central Bahsmas are notorious in spawning quickly devrloping tropicañ cyclones. It is a sweet spot for development, especially if conditions are ideal.

I think now we willl get Chantal in the next 24 hours before southwesterly shear increases ahead of the front by tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

I smell recon if the convection maintians past 8am..

[jlauderdal]

Looking better on latest Multi-Sat IR Analysis

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/9131/qxvqWX.gif

not a bad look on that graphic, this system has a few hours today ut time to go to nowcast mode with an hourly status update due to its short window

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better on latest Multi-Sat IR Analysis

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/9131/qxvqWX.gif

not a bad look on that graphic, this system has a few hours today ut time to go to nowcast mode with an hourly status update due to its short window

given where it was 7 hours ago and now.and possible approach to the coast it has 15 to 20 hour to go. More if it stay west longer

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NHC needs to get Recon in there asap.

[boca]

I was wrong I said that this should be deactivated today. It blew up during the night wow.

[northjaxpro]

The slowing of the forward motion may be signaling that 94L may be rounding the edge of the ridge and may be about to turn more northwest as the day progresses. I would not be surprised that 94L msy move parallel up off the Florida East Coast by lste todsy into tonivht, and then run into the SW shear zone with the front on tomorrow