Texas Summer 2019

[Haris]

welcome!

[JDawg512]

We picked up a few quick Barry showers over the last couple of days and yesterday was very enjoyable, cloudy with NE winds. Then today I show up in Austin and Downtown got dumped on pretty good.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_ji97zWkAAcQed?format=jpg&name=small

Welcome to Austin! Hope you enjoy your stay.

Today was a nice reprieve from the sun, at least the afternoon hours when those pop up downpours developed. Was visiting some friends up by the Domain and saw the clouds build up yo the south. By the time I arrived back home, it was pouring. Probably will be the last for a good while.

[bubba hotep]

We still got summer left here in Texas but the -EPO returning might help take the edge off for the northern part of the state. Far SW Texas is interesting, I guess that is monsoon influenced?

[Ntxw]

DFW going for 100F today or will it stop at 99?

[weatherdude1108]

We picked up a few quick Barry showers over the last couple of days and yesterday was very enjoyable, cloudy with NE winds. Then today I show up in Austin and Downtown got dumped on pretty good.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_ji97zWkAAcQed?format=jpg&name=small

Welcome to Austin! Hope you enjoy your stay.

Today was a nice reprieve from the sun, at least the afternoon hours when those pop up downpours developed. Was visiting some friends up by the Domain and saw the clouds build up yo the south. By the time I arrived back home, it was pouring. Probably will be the last for a good while.

Good for you! I got nada up in my area. Just humidity.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

A little mid Summer haiku while the crickets chirp in here.

Go away Summer
You hellish, sweaty villain
CAT 5 IN THE GULF!

[weatherdude1108]

The 30 day is drier than normal, but the 6 to 14 day outlook looks promising.






Valid Wednesday July 24, 2019 to Tuesday July 30, 2019
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 16 2019

Synopsis: Mid-level high pressure is anticipated to dominate the western half of the Contiguous U.S. during Week-2, supporting above-normal temperatures across the western third of the country. A stalled front across the Southeast and Texas may bring above normal precipitation to the Gulf Coast states and coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic during the period. Some models indicate the potential for a series of surface low pressure across northern mainland Alaska during Week-2 which may support anomalously high wind speeds across parts of western Alaska. Additionally, mid-level high pressure is anticipated across many parts of mainland Alaska, favoring anomalously warm temperatures. These warm temperatures and windy conditions may prolong wildfire risk across parts of Alaska during Week-2.

Hazards
Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin, Wed-Fri, Jul 24-Jul 26.
Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of California, Wed-Sun, Jul 24-Jul 28.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of Texas, Wed-Fri, Jul 24-Jul 26.
Flooding possible across portions of the Central and Southern Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Fri, Jul 24-Jul 26.
Slight risk of high winds for portions of western Alaska and coastal areas along the Chukchi Sea, Wed-Sun, Jul 24-Jul 28.
Detailed Summary

For Friday July 19 - Tuesday July 23: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Wednesday July 24 - Tuesday July 30: Amplified mid-level high pressure is forecast to dominate the western half of the CONUS throughout Week-2. This pattern supports a slight risk of excessive heat across parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin, July 24 to 26. Both the GEFS and ECMWF reforecast tools indicate a 20 percent chance or greater of some highlighted areas reaching the 85th percentile and 95 degrees F. A slight risk of excessive heat is also posted for parts of California, July 24 to 28. Similar to yesterday, the 0Z ECMWF develops a more expansive 500-hpa geopotential height center of 594 dam compared to the 6Z GEFS, favoring a warmer solution across California. However, the GEFS has come more in line with the ECMWF regarding the heat. Now the GEFS reforecasts tool indicates small areas over California reaching this threshold. These areas have a >20% chance of reaching the 85th percentile and triple digits compared to the GEFS reforecast tool.

The positioning of the mid-level ridge across the western CONUS may continue the increased likelihood of precipitation across the Four Corners region during Week-2. The GEFS reforecast tool continues to indicate the potential for precipitation across a broader area of the Four Corners region during Week-2 compared to the ECMWF reforecast tool. This difference is likely due to the aforementioned greater extent of the mid-level high pressure across the Southwest in the 0Z ECMWF, resulting in some suppression of precipitation, especially in the southern half of the Four Corners region. Despite these significant model discrepancies, a general area is highlighted across the Four Corners for possible flooding during the period, where localized convection and flash flooding are possible.

Amplified mid-level troughing is predicted across the eastern half of the CONUS throughout Week-2. This troughing may sink as far southward as the Southeast. A stalled front ahead of this trough in conjunction with ample onshore moisture associated with a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean increases the likelihood for rainfall across the Gulf Coast states. A slight risk of heavy precipitation (>20% chance of 3-day totals reaching or exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch) is posted for parts of Texas, July 24 to 26. Parts of the Gulf Coast states and Mid-Atlantic coast may receive an inch or greater of rainfall in 3-days associated with this front. However, since these totals are around the 80th percentile, a heavy precipitation risk is not highlighted since it does not reach the 85th percentile threshold.

Surface low pressure is anticipated to form over the Bering Sea and northern interior basin of Alaska during Week-2. This pattern favors an enhanced likelihood of high winds across parts of Alaska. A slight risk of high winds is highlighted across parts of western Alaska and coastal areas along the Chukchi Sea, July 24 to 28. Some models indicate the potential for amplified ridging across parts of southeastern mainland Alaska during Week-2. The ECMWF reforecast tool shows a much stronger signal for widespread >20% chances of maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding the 85th percentile compared to the GEFS reforecast tool. A broad area of slight risk of much above normal temperatures is posted across parts of mainland Alaska, July 24 to 26 where the ECMWF shows a >20% chance of maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding the 60s to mid 70s degrees F. Lingering anomalously warm temperatures may impact parts of Alaska during the rest of Week-2. Increased risk of high winds and much above normal temperatures may continue the risk of wildfires across parts of Alaska. According to the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, over 1.62 million acres have burned statewide (as of July 16th, 2019) since the beginning of the year.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

[weatherdude1108]

217
FXUS64 KEWX 161949
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Partly cloudy skies and hot conditions continue across South-Central
Texas at the present time. Dewpoints remain in the middle 70s in the
eastern counties which is leading to heat index values between 105
and 107 degrees. Will watch things over the next few hours, but at
the present time am not anticipating needed a Heat Advisory as
dewpoints should lower a degree or two as conditions warm. Will
handle it with an SPS to highlight the elevated heat indices.
Otherwise, there could be a brief shower in the Coastal Plains, but
not expecting much more than a trace of rain from any of the
possible isolated activity. Lows tonight will be in the middle to
upper 70s with mostly cloudy skies returning by morning for much of
the area.

For tomorrow, another hot and dry day is expected with skies becoming
partly cloudy once again by the early afternoon. Highs will be in the
middle 90s to 102 degrees. Afternoon heat index values will be near
105 to 107 along and east of the I35 corridor. Rain chances are too
low to mention anything in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast will start off like the
short-term, hot and dry. This will continue through Saturday with
highs continuing in the mid 90s to 103 degrees and heat indices
generally remaining below 108 degrees. A small chance of rain returns
to the Coastal Plains on Sunday as moisture values slightly increase
for some afternoon showers or storms. Rain chances will expand to a
larger portion of the area by Tuesday as a weak outflow/frontal
boundary could approach the area. The ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the GFS in showing this solution. Will only keep PoPs
at 20 percent for now, but if run to run consistency becomes
established, these could be bumped a bit in coming days.

[Brent]

DFW going for 100F today or will it stop at 99?

Only 96 so far looks like its gonna wait another day

[Ntxw]

97 officially. Just got to keep holding it off till mid August. On pace for below normal count of 100s.

[gpsnowman]

Hello from Morelia Mexico where it is a cool, dry 64 degrees. Have a phone signal for one day here before heading back to the mountains where my phone service is dead. Off the grid for a week or so.

[Brent]

97 officially. Just got to keep holding it off till mid August. On pace for below normal count of 100s.

FWD doesn't actually have 100 forecast at the airport so far... can we escape this week? Looks like after tomorrow it will be a hair cooler

also rain chances look to increase early next week

The gfs actually clears a front and has lows in the 60s outside the metros in a week

[South Texas Storms]

Can the 0z GFS please verify? A rare extended wet late July weather pattern with an upper-level weakness almost stalled over TX!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting to get a dry here in SE Tx. Not sure about the rest of Tx, but Ntx and others on the board have taught us, If things get too dry, allows for high pressures to park overtop of us. Need to keep the grass green and the humidity in the air to help avoid that situation!

[Ntxw]

There are definitely flags hinting at unusual cool down coming east of the Rockies.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There are definitely flags hinting at unusual cool down coming east of the Rockies.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

More rain here in Montgomery County! We are neutering Old Asshole Summer over here. Lows in the upper 60s next week? Let’s ride and put an early end to this party!

[Brent]

not even close to 100 yet still

NBC 5's weather question today was about years Dallas hasn't hit 100, hmmm

Fall is getting closer by the day

this time last year Dallas was entering the biggest heat wave in years where temps would hit or top 108 degrees 4 days straight including 2 days at 109

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the huge difference between the GFS and Euro regarding rainfall?

[Ntxw]

EPS is now hinting at it too. The upper ridge sitting over the 4 corners region in the heart of summer can bring NW flow aloft, thus pushing "cold" fronts towards Texas. Late July/early August 2004 is sticking out like a sore thumb in this kind of pattern. I would not at all be surprised if highs in the 80s lows in the 60s happens. If something (low) can sneak underneath and retrograde, a persistent wet pattern would definitely set up for a week or two.

See below for what DFW recorded July of 04, in particular focus on the last week or so.

Code: Select all

                                          STATION:   DALLAS FORT WORTH
                                          MONTH:     JULY
                                          YEAR:      2004
                                          LATITUDE:   32 54 N                   
                                          LONGITUDE:  97  2 W                   

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  90  74  82  -2   0  17 0.00  0.0    0  9.8 20 190 522   60   7        22 190
 2  93  77  85   1   0  20 0.00  0.0    0 12.7 22 170 705   82   5        25 170
 3  94  70  82  -2   0  17    T  0.0    0 12.5 30 330 654   76   3        37 320
 4  93  76  85   1   0  20 0.00  0.0    0 13.2 20 160 681   80   3        24 160
 5  91  77  84   0   0  19 0.00  0.0    0 13.8 22 170 729   85   5        25 160
 6  93  73  83  -1   0  18 0.01  0.0    0 10.4 28  10 724   85   5 1      35 360
 7  91  77  84   0   0  19 0.01  0.0    0  9.1 18 160 606   71   7 3      23 160
 8  94  77  86   2   0  21 0.00  0.0    0 13.1 21 150 763   90   3        24 160
 9  94  76  85   0   0  20 0.00  0.0    0 11.8 17 150 743   87   4        21 180
10  93  75  84  -1   0  19 0.00  0.0    0 10.4 17 180 693   82   5 8      21 170
11  95  73  84  -1   0  19 0.00  0.0    0 10.7 22 190 635   75   2        25 190
12  95  72  84  -1   0  19 0.00  0.0    0 10.3 16 210 773   91   2        18 190
13  97  77  87   2   0  22 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 15 240 776   92   2        18 200
14  98  76  87   2   0  22 0.00  0.0    0  7.9 14 260 779   92   0        18 160
15  99  76  88   3   0  23 0.00  0.0    0  8.0 13 150 783   93   1        15 170
16 100  76  88   3   0  23 0.00  0.0    0  9.3 16 200 771   91   6        18 210
17  96  78  87   2   0  22 0.00  0.0    0 10.0 18 340 646   77   7        21 340
18  92  71  82  -3   0  17 0.00  0.0    0  8.0 20 350 705   84   3        23 360
19  96  73  85   0   0  20 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 12 100 767   91   1        16  70
20  96  73  85   0   0  20 0.00  0.0    0  7.1 14 160 789   94   2 8      18 160
21  94  74  84  -1   0  19 0.00  0.0    0  9.1 16 170 693   83   3 8      22 150
22  96  75  86   1   0  21 0.00  0.0    0 10.4 20 150 756   90   2        23 160
23  97  75  86   1   0  21 0.00  0.0    0  9.7 15 150 750   90   2        20 160
24  97  77  87   1   0  22    T  0.0    0  8.0 29 300 526   63   6        33 300
25  80  70  75 -11   0  10 0.00  0.0    0 12.9 18 330 504   60   9        22 330
26  85  67  76 -10   0  11 0.00  0.0    0  8.4 16  20 533   64   7        20  10
27  87  69  78  -8   0  13 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 12 120 502   60   8        14 120
28  88  71  80  -6   0  15 2.43  0.0    0 11.6 26 160 221   27  10 13     33 160
29  85  71  78  -8   0  13 1.71  0.0    0  9.1 22 200 423   51  10 13     26 190
30  90  72  81  -5   0  16 0.00  0.0    0  6.0 12  20 657   79   7 13     14  10
31  95  72  84  -2   0  19 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 12  20 740   90   4        14  20
================================================================================

it happened again in August of 2004.