Area South of Bermuda

[MacTavish]

Anyone notice the very small surface low producing some convection? It was doing the same yesterday however, since it is so small, I expected it to be gone by now.
28.2 67.6

[Siker]

Wow, great spot. You can barely even tell it’s there on the Atlantic-wide view. It’s in a very dry environment and likely to experience significant northerly shear in the next few days, but for now it has a vigorous little LLC.

Image from earlier where you can see several quite dry low level bands:

[HurricaneEnzo]

If there are TD force winds in that it looks classifiable to me just judging on that image. Neat little system.

[wxman57]

Looks better-organized than Barry. Definitely a LLC with convection around it. Lots of northerly shear now. The whole thing is about 50 miles across.

[StormLogic]

My girlfriend was looking at my screen when I found this on sat and she said "aww it's so cute" lol

[TheStormExpert]

Looks better-organized than Barry. Definitely a LLC with convection around it. Lots of northerly shear now. The whole thing is about 50 miles across.

Yet the NHC doesn't care about it since it likely won't directly affect any land masses expect maybe Bermuda?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1150789955825704961

[TheAustinMan]

What a curious little system. All told it's not that far off from 2011's Tropical Storm Jose. Assuming convective persistence and a closed surface circulation (a 1330z METOP-B ASCAT pass suggested the probable existence of one with 15 kt winds), I suppose it meets standards for a tropical cyclone, though at the same time the definition of tropical cyclone is quite muddled and ill-defined.

[MacTavish]

What a curious little system. All told it's not that far off from 2011's Tropical Storm Jose. Assuming convective persistence and a closed surface circulation (a 1330z METOP-B ASCAT pass suggested the probable existence of one with 15 kt winds), I suppose it meets standards for a tropical cyclone, though at the same time the definition of tropical cyclone is quite muddled and ill-defined.

My question would be: What does it lack? Looks like a closed LLC with persistent convection near the center and mostly likely some gusty winds under that convection.

[CyclonicFury]

What a curious little system. All told it's not that far off from 2011's Tropical Storm Jose. Assuming convective persistence and a closed surface circulation (a 1330z METOP-B ASCAT pass suggested the probable existence of one with 15 kt winds), I suppose it meets standards for a tropical cyclone, though at the same time the definition of tropical cyclone is quite muddled and ill-defined.

My question would be: What does it lack? Looks like a closed LLC with persistent convection near the center and mostly likely some gusty winds under that convection.

The convection hasn't really persisted for long enough yet, and any dry air or even light shear could quickly destroy this fragile system.

[wxman57]

Shear dropped off and it looks more impressive now:

[AnnularCane]

My girlfriend was looking at my screen when I found this on sat and she said "aww it's so cute" lol

It is cute! Maybe it will be another Lee....okay, probably not.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you 57. I think this little booger is looking the best it has so far right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems invest worthy along with worth mentioning in the next TWO.

[supercane4867]

loop

[CyclonicFury]

loop

https://i.imgur.com/HyEMeLK.gif

Looking at visible alone I'd say that looks like a TD. The convection is likely going to need to persist longer for NHC to classify, though.

[northjaxpro]

Nice convective blowup right near the LLC. It sure looks like a classifiable system to me.

[AutoPenalti]

Surprised no models picked up on this, unless it’s from the piece that broke up from ex-93L

[Siker]

Surprised no models picked up on this, unless it’s from the piece that broke up from ex-93L

GFS shows a single closed isobar, basically the same as showing a TS :

[CyclonicFury]

ASCAT-C confirms there is indeed a well-defined circulation present. It's going to be interesting to see if NHC mentions this system in their 2PM TWO.