ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

You would think the hurricane hunters would send out an unscheduled mission to replace the one that left.

[bamajammer4eva]

Hoping all in La are hunkered down and have plenty of Pringles in their kit

[lrak]

Seems we are playing in the Game of Thrones

Yeah, well, let's hope this version has a better ending.
Interesting storm.

Goodnight and I pray for us all.....

[Aric Dunn]

well this does not exactly look like a NW motion lol.. already approaching landfall longitude ..



rough center and red is the landfall area.. going to be difficult to reach that area if it does not change course soon..

[tropicwatch]

There has been a serious expansion of convection during the past hour or so.

[lrak]

S Tex is still rebuilding from Harvey and we can take rain because of the run off to the ocean...but no wind if so. I use to live in Port Aransas and we are having a fishing tournament called the Deep Sea Round Up....with a fish fry after which I intend eat lots of fishes if this crazy Barry will let us be.

[tropicwatch]

It appears the coc is under the right ball of convection just to the left of the highest clouds tops.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_16&x=7775.23974609375&y=5136

[Aric Dunn]

It appears the coc is under the right ball of convection just to the left of the highest clouds tops.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_16&x=7775.23974609375&y=5136

it is inside my circle above.

KEIR has calm winds pressure 997 mb currently. that is straight south of landfall location of most models.. that cant happen now unless it moves pretty much due north..

[MississippiWx]

So aggravating to not have recon at this point in time.

[bamajammer4eva]

12zEuro/GFS both paint entire La coastline as possible landfall point

[Aric Dunn]

12zEuro/GFS both paint entire La coastline as possible landfall point

https://i.imgur.com/Jasp1Sp.png?1

its close to passing the majority or mean landfall area well to the south..

[CrazyC83]

I'd probably go with a 60 kt intensity based on trends and previous flights...do we have any good oil rig data?

[Aric Dunn]

I'd probably go with a 60 kt intensity based on trends and previous flights...do we have any good oil rig data?

nothing but the center location from the calm winds and 997mb pressure at KEIR

[Cunxi Huang]

Buoy SPLL1 just recorded a sustained wind 59.1 kt with gusts 69 kt.
I would say 60 kt for now is pretty reasonable.

07 12 10:00 pm CDT S 59.1 69.0 - - - - - - 79.3 - - - 2.2 -

[BRweather]

I would love to have a plane in there right now. If you only had IR to look at for observations, you'd swear the the center was under the eastern blob and the old circulation is dying out ahead of the convection lol

[lrak]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5525-State-Highway-361-Port-Aransas-TX-78373/28831180_zpid/ my Dad built this house which sat on 40 telephone poles set deep into the sand. Harvey washed away the sand but the house is still there. If you ever drive down HY 361 to PA look to your right before PA and you'll see it. The owner was an engineer and demanded these poles be drilled into the sand...good call Mr. ?><!

[tropicwatch]

I'd probably go with a 60 kt intensity based on trends and previous flights...do we have any good oil rig data?

nothing but the center location from the calm winds and 997mb pressure at KEIR

I don't see that station reporting a pressure.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KEIR

But did get a pressure reading from EINL1 with a pressure of 994.2mb at 0400z and it is located approximately 50nm northwest of last reported position. Its pressure has gone up a little since then.

[MississippiWx]

I would love to have a plane in there right now. If you only had IR to look at for observations, you'd swear the the center was under the eastern blob and the old circulation is dying out ahead of the convection lol

There is a pronounced spin in the thunderstorms in that spot. You can see the spin on radar very well. It's difficult to say if that is mid-level or surface.

[BRweather]

I would love to have a plane in there right now. If you only had IR to look at for observations, you'd swear the the center was under the eastern blob and the old circulation is dying out ahead of the convection lol

There is a pronounced spin in the thunderstorms in that spot. You can see the spin on radar very well. It's difficult to say if that is mid-level or surface.

I agree. I am trying to find buoy data or anything to support this, but not having much luck.

[Texashawk]

By no means an expert, but looking at all the data, if I were in Lake Charles, I’d be starting to get very nervous tonight.