ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I guess I’m still a little concerned in Texas since my met explained that the trough has lessened its effect and if Barry gets a lot stronger then the high pressure to the east which has been the dominant steering mechanism will be less so. Now that it finaly seems to be getting its act together, could it still continue on a WNW and affect LC/Golden Triangle more directly?

This is very true. the trough door is closed. only thing steering this is the low to mid level ridge to its east because it's stronger then the ridge to its NW.,,,
and if that ridge to the east weakens any then the track will shift probably due west or even SW.

[GCANE]

IMHO, ideal conditions for intensification.
In this case, land interaction may be conducive for intensification since there is a large 4000 CAPE ridge stretching from Nashville to the MS River and down into Barry. Fuel for the fire.

[SoupBone]

I guess I’m still a little concerned in Texas since my met explained that the trough has lessened its effect and if Barry gets a lot stronger then the high pressure to the east which has been the dominant steering mechanism will be less so. Now that it finaly seems to be getting its act together, could it still continue on a WNW and affect LC/Golden Triangle more directly?

This is very true. the trough door is closed. only thing steering this is the low to mid level ridge to its east because it's stronger then the ridge to its NW.,,,
and if that ridge to the east weakens any then the track will shift probably due west or even SW.

Then what is the NHC seeing that keeps it on its path? The ridge remaining stout?

[Aric Dunn]

I guess I’m still a little concerned in Texas since my met explained that the trough has lessened its effect and if Barry gets a lot stronger then the high pressure to the east which has been the dominant steering mechanism will be less so. Now that it finaly seems to be getting its act together, could it still continue on a WNW and affect LC/Golden Triangle more directly?

This is very true. the trough door is closed. only thing steering this is the low to mid level ridge to its east because it's stronger then the ridge to its NW.,,,
and if that ridge to the east weakens any then the track will shift probably due west or even SW.

Then what is the NHC seeing that keeps it on its path? The ridge remaining stout?

yeppers the ridge to its east being stronger in the LOW to mid levels then the ridge to the NW.

mid to upper level ridging/steering

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting to watch how winds nearing hurricane-force are beginning to wrap around on the NE side of the storm, despite there being less convection. 70mph sustained winds on the SFMR were recorded just off Grand Isle.

[BRweather]

This is very true. the trough door is closed. only thing steering this is the low to mid level ridge to its east because it's stronger then the ridge to its NW.,,,
and if that ridge to the east weakens any then the track will shift probably due west or even SW.

Then what is the NHC seeing that keeps it on its path? The ridge remaining stout?

yeppers the ridge to its east being stronger in the LOW to mid levels then the ridge to the NW.

Regardless if the trough door has closed there is still a weakness between the two ridges. It is a much easier path for the storm to take and Barry would have to strengthen rapidly for any upper level steering currents to play a role in pushing the storm more west.

[Aric Dunn]

my Leader cell is rounding the corner... should coincide with a burst of convection around the center.

[Nederlander]

Looks like he will track straight up Vermilion Bay into New Iberia.

[sphelps8681]

Barry dropped speed from 6 mph to 4mph.

[TexasF6]

Elephant in the room...what if it does not turn north? Then what? Is this possible?

[Condor]

Forward speed went from 6 mph WNW to 4 mph WNW

[frank92171]

On the levee of the Mississippi River in Gretna looking towards New Orleans.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Stormcenter]

So Barry is stationary at 7pm per NHC....what's that in the cards?

[Stormcenter]

I believe stronger storms tend to move poleward eventually.

Elephant in the room...what if it does not turn north? Then what? Is this possible?

[northjaxpro]

Then what is the NHC seeing that keeps it on its path? The ridge remaining stout?

yeppers the ridge to its east being stronger in the LOW to mid levels then the ridge to the NW.

Regardless if the trough door has closed there is still a weakness between the two ridges. It is a much easier path for the storm to take and Barry would have to strengthen rapidly for any upper level steering currents to play a role in pushing the storm more west.

This. Barry will still drift into that weakness. It is just going to be a flooding nightmare across the Lower MS River as Barry and his remnants meander in the region the next few days.

[SoupBone]

So Barry is stationary at 7pm per NHC....what's that in the cards?

Link? And no, if true, it was not.

[Nederlander]

Elephant in the room...what if it does not turn north? Then what? Is this possible?

Like others have alluded to - Barry is not a deep system so it’s more influenced by low/mid-level steering. The ridge to the east is stronger at those levels than the one to the NW.

[Yellow Evan]

61 SFMR supports 60 so not sure why NHC stuck with 55.

[TCu]

Regarding Radar, I would recommend using either RadarScope or GrLevel if you want to see something other than a low-res and likely composite image.

[TexasF6]

First time seeing this in the NOLA Forecast Disco or any FD:

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Red.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Tropical operations/Moderate to High Risk excessive rainfall/
Slight Risk severe weather/River flood warnings.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
National Significance.