ATL: BARRY - Models

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#801 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:52 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Steve wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm concerned that, just because models are trending weaker, people may let their guard down. Even if it doesn't become a hurricane (seemingly possible now) there will still be boatloads of rain...


No doubt Crazy. The old timers used to say that sometimes a depression or tropical storm can hit you with way more rainfall.


Especially since it will be slower moving, especially near/after landfall.



It doesn't take much of a shift to put you under those 30" rather than being in the 5-10" range either. That's what is so tricky about these forecasts with rainfall. Unless it's a widespread rain event.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#802 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:00 am

HWRF & HMON radar depictions don't really fill in the northern rain shield until Friday am on their radar depictions. So that's something to watch for if the northern side looks bereft tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#803 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:07 am

Steve wrote:HWRF & HMON radar depictions don't really fill in the northern rain shield until Friday am on their radar depictions. So that's something to watch for if the northern side looks bereft tomorrow.


Yes dry air issues. HWRF especially shows it tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#804 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:09 am

HWRF hits due south of New Orleans late Friday night like 10pm (valid 03z Saturday)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=51

We'll see how it finishes the run in relation to the city. Then it's the EURO and bed.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#805 Postby Lobwedgephil » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:38 am

Steve wrote:HWRF hits due south of New Orleans late Friday night like 10pm (valid 03z Saturday)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=51

We'll see how it finishes the run in relation to the city. Then it's the EURO and bed.



What time for the EURO if you don't mind?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#806 Postby Blinhart » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:45 am

But my big question is where is this supposed dry air gonna come from, I'm looking at live stuff and there really isn't any dry air around to be dragged in, it would have to pull it in from Birmingham, and I really doubt that.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#807 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:49 am

Lobwedgephil wrote:
Steve wrote:HWRF hits due south of New Orleans late Friday night like 10pm (valid 03z Saturday)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=51

We'll see how it finishes the run in relation to the city. Then it's the EURO and bed.



What time for the EURO if you don't mind?


Usually about 12:40 so it’s probably going. It’s slow but we only need a few plots
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#808 Postby artist » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:49 am

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... imate=true

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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#809 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:50 am

Blinhart wrote:But my big question is where is this supposed dry air gonna come from, I'm looking at live stuff and there really isn't any dry air around to be dragged in, it would have to pull it in from Birmingham, and I really doubt that.


Look to the airmass/ridge northeast of Barry. That’s fairly dry.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#810 Postby Blinhart » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:53 am

Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:But my big question is where is this supposed dry air gonna come from, I'm looking at live stuff and there really isn't any dry air around to be dragged in, it would have to pull it in from Birmingham, and I really doubt that.


Look to the airmass/ridge northeast of Barry. That’s fairly dry.


But it is a good distance away
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#811 Postby Dylan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:59 am

Looks like the EURO may be heading to SE LA...yikes.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#812 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:14 am

Graphics? Thanks


Dylan wrote:Looks like the EURO may be heading to SE LA...yikes.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#813 Postby Dylan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:21 am

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1149200861123547137


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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#814 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:42 am

Bad trends early this morning for Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi in thay they all have shifted esst considerably. The worst impacts seem likely to be frlt in Greater Nes Orleans and the Mississippi Coast region. I just hope they are all taming the necessary actions to protect life first and foremost. Flooding could be disastrous with landfall the next couple of days. MS River already at the flood stage :(
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#815 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:45 am

⁴Bad trends early this morning for Southeast Louisiana and Coastal Mississippi in that they all have shifted esst considerably. The worst impacts seem likely to be frlt in Greater Nes Orleans and the Mississippi Coast region. I just hope they are all taming the necessary actions to protect life first and foremost. Flooding could be disastrous with landfall the next couple of days. MS River already at the flood stage.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#816 Postby N2FSU » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:17 am

6z GFS with another east shift:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2019071106&fh=48
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#817 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:44 am

How's that UKMET working out? Had I been a gambler I would had made a lot of money betting against it :lol:
That 12z yesterday should had been thrown out the window when it was showing 92L to move really fast yesterday, when in fact it has moved only around 5 mph since yesterday morning.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#818 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:25 am

PTC 2 not looking any healthier this a.m.; still having issues getting vertically aligned.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#819 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:27 am

Another eastward shift by the HWRF.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#820 Postby Pearl River » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:16 am

06 Euro has it coming ashore around Caillou Bay, then moving N just east of Morgan City from the way it looks.
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