ATL: BARRY - Models

[NDG]

GFS has it bouncing around then moving in on top of Terrebonne Parish. That's a good bit east of the previous run.

Is a good 50 mile shift to the east from previous 18z run. Makes a jog to the western suburbs of Nola, this is the farthest east the GFS has shown so far on its runs.

[SoupBone]

I was going to try and stay up for the Euro, but I think I'm done. Too tired after this week.

The GFS is interesting in getting it out sooner and more east. I think the window is closing for major path shifts, but mother nature always has a few tricks.

[NDG]

0z CMC so far has also shifted to the east, fairly close to the Euro and GFS at 36 hrs.

[TheAustinMan]

If anyone was curious whether the recon dropsondes made it into the latest 00z GFS, they most certainly did, as indicated by the large uptick in dropsondes assimilated into the model:

16 kB. Source: NCEP Realtime Data Monitoring System

[MississippiWx]

It's still interesting to see the FV3 and Legacy GFS models intensify this very quickly right before landfall. Shows you the environment is going to be ripe, but the struggle will be structural issues. The quicker it straightens itself out internally, the stronger it will be at landfall.

[MississippiWx]

0z CMC so far has also shifted to the east, fairly close to the Euro and GFS at 36 hrs.

Lol. It shifted east by 200 miles from the 12z run. UKMET is on an island all alone for now.

[NDG]

Anybody has the UKMET?

[Steve]

The UK is often the most schizo model though. We had a benchmark Sunday 12z of It getting as far west as only 86.2.

[Steve]

That wasn't meant to you NDG. I was typing at the same time. Someone will post it soon.

[BobHarlem]

Anybody has the UKMET?

0z UKMet goes into just west of Port Arthur, TX, ramping up quickly when it does. Shifted quite a bit east from the 12z run (Matagorda Bay).

[mcheer23]

UKMET East but still In Texas

[Kingarabian]

Anybody has the UKMET?

[Steve]

Canadian moved over toward Grand Isle. It was going to Texas at 12z.

Also it has one of the worst rainfall potentials for New Orleans and then entire coast of MS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=102

[MississippiWx]

The UKMET is either going to be king or have a very poor start to the hurricane season. My guess is that it's really struggling with this type of setup and the other models are just more in touch with the pattern. We will see what the Euro says after it has ingested dropsonde data.

[CrazyC83]

I'm concerned that, just because models are trending weaker, people may let their guard down. Even if it doesn't become a hurricane (seemingly possible now) there will still be boatloads of rain...

[NDG]

Anybody has the UKMET?

https://i.imgur.com/romNrnL.jpg

Based on the coordinates that's a shift to the east, landfall 10 miles west of Sabine Pass (TX/LA border)
That's a good 70 miles shift to the east from previous 12z run.

[Steve]

I'm concerned that, just because models are trending weaker, people may let their guard down. Even if it doesn't become a hurricane (seemingly possible now) there will still be boatloads of rain...

No doubt Crazy. The old timers used to say that sometimes a depression or tropical storm can hit you with way more rainfall.

[CrazyC83]

I'm concerned that, just because models are trending weaker, people may let their guard down. Even if it doesn't become a hurricane (seemingly possible now) there will still be boatloads of rain...

No doubt Crazy. The old timers used to say that sometimes a depression or tropical storm can hit you with way more rainfall.

Especially since it will be slower moving, especially near/after landfall.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1149176103770185728

[MississippiWx]

The wild card that I'm seeing on the models (in terms of strength) is the very favorable outflow pattern. Yes, there will be some northerly shear until a blow up of convection can occur near or over the center. After that, though, poleward and equatorward outflow channels should exist. That combined with SSTs of 30-31C is a dangerous combo.