ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Storms are consistently firing over the developing center. Overshooting tops can be seen in visible imagery. This is what you look for if you want to see deepening. If this continues, designation could occur tonight.

[KimmieLa]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Hopefully, that scenario does not play out. NOLA will struggle to handle it if it does. The MS River was not high in Aug. 2016, but, it is now, and where would all the rain go. Concerned for them.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Hopefully, that scenario does not play out. NOLA will struggle to handle it if it does. The MS River was not high in Aug. 2016, but, it is now, and where would all the rain go. Concerned for them.

Exactly, no one needs a Lower Mississippi River version of Agnus.

[lrak]

It looks squashed and moving SW or stationary per ocular analysis. And the circulation center looks off from NHC plot map. Also the steering currents are not making any sense to me. Please explain how this is going to NOLA? I have a ton of friends in Houston and they are asking me LOL. I like to surf and they think I know it all...ACK

[Steve]

It looks squashed and moving SW or stationary per ocular analysis. And the circulation center looks off from NHC plot map. Also the steering currents are not making any sense to me. Please explain how this is going to NOLA? I have a ton of friends in Houston and they are asking me LOL. I like to surf and they think I know it all...ACK

I don't know if anyone said Barry would landfall and pass over here. It's more about the 10-20" potential rainfall shield to the east of landfall. Whether that's here, Houma to Baton Rouge or maybe around Lafayette would depend on how far west the center went in. As it was, turns out we got 7" in a short time this morning as it was only stewing.

As it is, I can hear thunder again, and it looks like another band is about to slide down on us from the NE. Hopefully this one won't keep firing off like this morning's band did.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[KimmieLa]

It looks squashed and moving SW or stationary per ocular analysis. And the circulation center looks off from NHC plot map. Also the steering currents are not making any sense to me. Please explain how this is going to NOLA? I have a ton of friends in Houston and they are asking me LOL. I like to surf and they think I know it all...ACK

I have heard 4 different scenarios as to where this may go. We should know more by tomorrow, right? That is what the powers that be are saying. If you live in Texas or Louisiana, best thing to do is to prepare like it is coming your way, then you will be ready for what comes your way, if it does. It's a wait and see kind of situation. LOL, I am having to learn patience.

[stormhunter7]

Kermit might be able to close off the low on the east to west run. There up at 20kft for this science mission, but they do have radar underneath and a few extra dropsondes might show enough winds to upgrade. RECON is so important IMO. BTW, there is a nice HOT Tower going up where the COC may be tightening up, IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It looks squashed and moving SW or stationary per ocular analysis. And the circulation center looks off from NHC plot map. Also the steering currents are not making any sense to me. Please explain how this is going to NOLA? I have a ton of friends in Houston and they are asking me LOL. I like to surf and they think I know it all...ACK

I have heard 4 different scenarios as to where this may go. We should know more by tomorrow, right? That is what the powers that be are saying. If you live in Texas or Louisiana, best thing to do is to prepare like it is coming your way, then you will be ready for what comes your way, if it does. It's a wait and see kind of situation. LOL, I am having to learn patience.

Indeed, we will know more once this develops a single, defined LLC. We won't know everything right away, of course, but it will go a long way in starting to break through the fog of development, so to speak.

[davidiowx]

Why is no one discussing this more? This seems to be a pretty significant development.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

I too, am wondering the same thing. He may be onto something. Hopefully those balloons released will be in the models later tonight and it may help the models with the trough

[lrak]

Sorry didn't understand and haven't kept up with it all today. Work sucks...lol...ready to surf and I pray that LA doesn't get the rain I have a few clients in LA and they always talk about the swamps and voodoo. He is texting me and I keep telling him to leave this time.

[LeonardRay]

What impact has that complex of storms that has persisted all day by new orleans had on the development of this system, seems like it is robbing some energy

[Nimbus]

Kermit might be able to close of the low on the east to west run. There up at 20kft for this science mission, but they do have radar underneath and a few extra dropsondes might show enough winds to upgrade. RECON is so important IMO. BTW, there is a nice HOT Tower going up where the COC may be tightening up, IMO.

That hot tower has been somewhat persistent, doesn't look displaced by shear so we might have a closed circulation soon.

[Steve]

What impact has that complex of storms that has persisted all day by new orleans had on the development of this system, seems like it is robbing some energy

I felt like it was a byproduct of the flow. I could be wrong.

[MississippiWx]

What impact has that complex of storms that has persisted all day by new orleans had on the development of this system, seems like it is robbing some energy

I felt like it was a byproduct of the flow. I could be wrong.

Yes, the easterly flow slows down over SE Louisiana and begins to turn northerly. The air piles up there and results in an upward motion. In other words, convergence. It might have stole the focus from the center most of the day. Could be why the center is now consolidating with persistent updrafts as the convection over Louisiana has died out.

[stormhunter7]

Some of that SFMR data is right at TS status in last 40 minutes on Kermit mission. (from fl200)

[northjaxpro]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Hopefully, that scenario does not play out. NOLA will struggle to handle it if it does. The MS River was not high in Aug. 2016, but, it is now, and where would all the rain go. Concerned for them.

Exactly, no one needs a Lower Mississippi River version of Agnus.

Yeah, extremely concerned for all in Greater NOLA with the flooding, and all of Louisiana with Barry possiibly becoming a Cat 1 cane or stronger. My prayers go out to all out there!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to see some pressure falls at buoy 42001 which is west of the center

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

[stormhunter7]

7pm advisory went with estimated 1010mb. LOCATION...27.9N 87.8W

[cycloneye]

The fist has begun.

[davidiowx]

The fist has begun.

https://i.imgur.com/yR90Fpj.gif

And here we goooo...