ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

HMON 18z is initialized and out to 3 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71018&fh=6

[StormLogic]

12z cmc, lets see what 00z has later. When I noticed all but the Ukmet and CMC spaghetti models headed same direction I had a feeling it had to do with the underdoing of the ridge. With that being said. Do we go with ukmet and cmc simply because its really the only legit runs of the day we can go by? 1 parameter can throw whole model off in my book.

[stormhunter7]

I KNOW not to look at the North American Mesoscale Forecast System for tropical systems... but dang the 18z, it never did that with Michael last year? Dont think i have every seen that kinda solution on non-developed system attm.

[Steve]

I don't know logic. That's like the million dollar question. I just hope we figure it out before it's too late for somebody. Tropical systems often throw surprises as we all know. But you hope to have more than 48 hours notice if possible.

?

HMON is out to 36. I don't follow it for intensity, so I don't know its track record or capabilities. It has 978mb which seems probably low (was 983 in only 30 hours or tomorrow at 7pm). 27.38N 89.1W +/-

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=36

[Frank P]

18z HMON at 51h pressure down to 967 mb just SW of the mouth of the MS and appears to be heading NW to NNW

[stormhunter7]

I don't know logic. That's like the million dollar question. I just hope we figure it out before it's too late for somebody. Tropical systems often throw surprises as we all know. But you hope to have more than 48 hours notice if possible.

?

HMON is out to 36. I don't follow it for intensity, so I don't know its track record or capabilities. It has 978mb which seems probably low (was 983 in only 30 hours or tomorrow at 7pm). 27.38N 89.1W +/-

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=36

HMON is showing worst case scenarios for New Orleans and southern La. on 18z.

[plasticup]

18z HMON at 51h pressure down to 967 mb just SW of the mouth of the MS and appears to be heading NW to NNW

Yeah that’s nightmare material.

[Steve]

Formidable 967mb at 51 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=51

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1149069365817556993

UKMET also initiated h50 heights about the same as the ECMWF.
I don't see what he is talking about.

[Steve]

Making that run toward Grand Isle at 57 @ 963mb which still seems awfully low for that soon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=57

[Frank P]

HMON 965 mb at landfall SELA... worse case scenario for NOLA

[Frank P]

HMON 974 mb as it passes thru the center of Lake Ponchatrain

[Steve]

HMON 965 mb at landfall SELA... worse case scenario for NOLA

It crosses over the city Saturday morning. I think the last center of circulation we got was TS Bill in 2003.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=66

[Haris]

I am so confused now about the H pressure thing. NDG brought up a point. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm......

[Steve]

HWRF moving in on the LA Coast at 57 but stronger than the HMON @ 959mb. It's slightly fading East of due north, so bad weather in store for coastal Mississippi.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=57

[Steve]

HWRF hits Louisiana slightly east of where HMON does and moves up almost due North toward New Orleans but on the east side of town.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=63

[ronjon]

Based on 18z HMON and HWRF, New Orleans might be in for a rough ride. Already concern for Miss River flooding and now potentially in the eye wall of a hurricane. This isn't a Katrina but flooding could be a real concern with the angle of approach. This could be a real test of USACOE levee improvements since Katrina.

[Frank P]

HWRF hits Louisiana slightly east of where HMON does and moves up almost due North toward New Orleans but on the east side of town.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1018&fh=63

Steve, that HWRF run looks very similar to a recent GFS legacy run a few runs back! But about 15 MB’s stronger!

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, both of the HWRF and HMON would be a problem here. I'd get to see my first eye though.

[MississippiWx]

The hurricane models are very similar in strength and track. That is a little concerning. I still think it will be a little farther west, but not as far west as the NHC.