ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

So, if I had to spitball landfall intensity, this would be my probabilistic breakdown. Do note, I believe that flooding rain and surge will be the major impactor from this storm, regardless of strength. This could make landfall as a sheared TD, and likely still incur significant flooding. That being said...

• Tropical Depression - 5%
• Tropical Storm - 50%
• Category 1 - 40%
• Category 2 - 5%

I think this becomes a TD sometime early tomorrow morning, which gives it 48 hours to strengthen. More than enough to become a hurricane. I don't buy the <970mb forecasts, not yet at least, but some credence has to be given to the higher end of the envelope.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Can we tone down the silly posts about a sub-900mb hurricane in the gulf in July?

Like I said, lets be real..its the NAM but you never know.

Just check ur stuff

[TexasF6]

Regular NAM had a TS into the Middle TX Coast! There is a balance lol

[cycloneye]

Good coordination between NHC and the local NWS offices in the areas impacted.

 https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/1148988908665004033

[Aric Dunn]

Center straight south of Pensacola on radar. Cells rotating around.

[Stormcenter]

Link please, thanks in advance.

Center straight south of Pensacola on radar. Cells rotating around.

[wxman57]

Can we tone down the silly posts about a sub-900mb hurricane in the gulf in July?

Sub 900 is a stretch, but 5 years ago, you wouldn't see conditions like this in the GOM until late August or September.

The fact that we have a poorly-defined LLC separated from a mid-level center means that conditions across the Gulf really aren't that favorable now. I see nothing out of the ordinary offshore for July.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Center straight south of Pensacola on radar. Cells rotating around.

Think they are gonna call it soon

[Stormcenter]

Looks to me like everything is on schedule with PTC Two. IMO

Which is not good.

[wxman57]

Center straight south of Pensacola on radar. Cells rotating around.

Think they are gonna call it soon

No. It's lacking both a well-defined low-level circulation center and organized convection around a center. Maybe tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Looks to me like everything is on schedule with PTC Two. IMO

Which is not good.

Yeah, we've been thinking that it would be classified as a TD/TS with tomorrow afternoon's recon flight.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks to me like everything is on schedule with PTC Two. IMO

Which is not good.

Yeah, we've been thinking that it would be classified as a TD/TS with tomorrow afternoon's recon flight.

I think it happens this afternoon if it is at all justifiable. They are not going to wait until tomorrow.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4345.60498046875&y=5417.546875

[gfsperpendicular]

Convection looks like it's returning around the supposed LLC. The circ looks a little less elliptical although it still appears as if it's not stacked. Looks like N shear persists.

[tolakram]

Shear analysis

[Aric Dunn]

Convection looks like it's returning around the supposed LLC. The circ looks a little less elliptical although it still appears as if it's not stacked. Looks like N shear persists.

Yeah highly likely we have a td/ts

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate a low very close to the Florida Panhandle, north of the convection (red circle). I do think that the LLC will form closer to the convection eventually - maybe tonight or tomorrow. I think it'll become "Barry" as early as 15Z tomorrow, possibly 21Z tomorrow. I'm still going with the 12Z 3K NAM as my new favorite model...

[TheAustinMan]

High-resolution short-term ensemble guidance suggests that a new surface center of circulation will begin to solidfy roughly 80-150 nautical miles southeast of the Mississippi River Delta this evening, accompanied by a local increase in convective activity beginning at around 7-8 p.m. central time and continuing into the overnight hours atop this new center. Convection may thin out some this afternoon before that takes place. Right now, PTC#2 isn't well stacked, but upper-air analyses suggest that the circulations at the various levels of the atmosphere are coming into better alignment. In my opinion, I don't think the upcoming recon flight in the early afternoon will find anything particularly organized at the surface, but I think the later NOAA flight expected to reach the storm this evening will be more illustrative of the developing circulation as vertical stacking is expected to improve considerably at that time.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[psyclone]

For now it's a hot wet mess but capable of flooding rain bombs...the unsexy TC hazard that skunks more people than just about anything else and is not correlated to TC strength. It is precisely why I always carry the flag of the WPC QPF output. Expect this to be an eventual go from a coherent TC status but to take awhile...Like cranking a lawn mower for the first time...it usually takes a few pulls..

[SoupBone]

Shear analysis

https://i.imgur.com/w9VvzyS.png

I'm usually the shear guy each year.

There is 25kts of shear right ahead of it, but will that remain? These things seem to limit it as it forms.