ATL: BARRY - Models

[NDG]

Latest 06z spaghetti models, good majority pointing to south central LA.

[NDG]

Big shift to the west by the Euro ensembles.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow. That's a huge shift west. The majority are now in TX.

[Kingarabian]

Finally the UKMET ensembles are out, although quite a few members are missing. Maybe the 12z run will be complete:

[otowntiger]

Could this be an Alicia, 1983 repeat? The main difference here is that it is or could be forming much further east giving more time over water. As I recall Alicia formed due south of LA and quickly became a low end cat 3 before plowing into Galveston and Houston areas.

[USTropics]

Given the more southern location of 92L already this morning, I would start to heavily consider the more upper-end model forecasts in strength. The ECMWF ensembles are showing a much stronger system for the members that are closer to the actual current center for 92L



The UKMET's 952mb pressure at landfall isn't as skeptical now:

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS much weaker @ 54H

[cycloneye]

06z NAM 3 km.

[chaser1]

Could this be an Alicia, 1983 repeat? The main difference here is that it is or could be forming much further east giving more time over water. As I recall Alicia formed due south of LA and quickly became a low end cat 3 before plowing into Galveston and Houston areas.

You beat me to it LOL; Woke up and took a look at this thing and had the same thought cross my mind.

[zhukm29]

Here is the 0z UKMET run from last night, which brings a 951 mb storm into Galveston. It's still a few days out so this will likely not verify, but a scary run nonetheless.

[NDG]

Looking at the 06z Rapid Euro coming, is a little weaker than previous 0z run and looks like it will be shifting to the right on landfall.

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

06z Euro has shifted back to the right, south central LA.

[MississippiWx]

06z Euro has shifted back to the right, south central LA.

https://i.imgur.com/2oPloCk.png

When the Euro jumps around this much, you know the setup is complicated.

[wxman57]

06z Euro has shifted back to the right, south central LA.

https://i.imgur.com/2oPloCk.png

I was just about to point that out, NDG. Most likely landfall area appears to be between eastern Vermilion Bay and Lake Charles. Strong TS, possibly Cat 1. Rainfall may be the biggest threat along and to the right of the track.

[stormlover2013]

From greg Bostwick- Satellite pictures and buoy reports indicate the disturbance
south of the Florida Panhandle is becoming better organized early this morning as it moves slowly to the west. This system should become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Unfortunately with the surface low forming further to the south over the Gulf, a more westerly track is certainly on the table. Also, the upper level ridge to the northwest and north of the developing storm is not weakening much at this time. With the ridge basically holding, a more westerly track looks likely.

Therefore, there is an increasing risk of some degree of impact to our area beginning Friday evening through Sunday. Landfall would likely be Saturday with a high likelihood that wherever landfall occurs, it will be as a hurricane.

Still a lot of moving pieces to deal with and I will be updating again later this morning.

[NDG]

Another look at the latest 12z early models.

[Steve]

Here is the 06Z HWRF valid Saturday around noon


Here is the 06Z HMON valid around midnight Friday night/Saturday morning


Both are a bit east of where landfall appears/appeared to be going toward the LA/TX border.

It's still pouring, I'm still wet.

[SoupBone]

06z Euro has shifted back to the right, south central LA.

https://i.imgur.com/2oPloCk.png

I was just about to point that out, NDG. Most likely landfall area appears to be between eastern Vermilion Bay and Lake Charles. Strong TS, possibly Cat 1. Rainfall may be the biggest threat along and to the right of the track.

Lake Chuck would still bring TS winds to the Greater Houston Area, right?

[sphelps8681]

06z Euro has shifted back to the right, south central LA.

https://i.imgur.com/2oPloCk.png

I was just about to point that out, NDG. Most likely landfall area appears to be between eastern Vermilion Bay and Lake Charles. Strong TS, possibly Cat 1. Rainfall may be the biggest threat along and to the right of the track.

Lake Chuck would still bring TS winds to the Greater Houston Area, right?

I was thinking the same thing. I am closer to lake charles but I would think we should feel impacts as well to a degree.