ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

While the Euro shift has me concerned, our paid guys seem to still believe that the upper trough will play an important role in moving this into south Louisiana, rather than SE Texas. Like I said yesterday, that feature will be a very important piece of the overall puzzle.

[Aric Dunn]

So per the 8am advisory they are going with the obvious place on sat, radar and surface obs that a circ is developing. The 12z models should have the new best track inputed. Likely see a westward shift in models

[StormLogic]

While the Euro shift has me concerned, our paid guys seem to still believe that the upper trough will play an important role in moving this into south Louisiana, rather than SE Texas. Like I said yesterday, that feature will be a very important piece of the overall puzzle.

Upper trough not going to be strong enough, Barry will most likely intensify and the stronger it gets the more she moves west
My target landfall area remains the same as monday. Anywhere's from McFaddin Beach,TX to Pecan Island,LA

[birddogsc]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

Yeah, something interesting is out there. How does that position on radar compare with the NHC position?

[BobHarlem]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

Closest to that I've found is http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?442 you can see a few oddball spirals, but it becomes obvious where everything is headed later in the loop.

[StormLogic]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=srx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes then click on florida

[Nederlander]

One thing for certain is that it’s not in a hurry to move... Steering looks very weak!

[Aric Dunn]

Zoom in a look here. Partially exposed center. Still small and not all in the mid levels. The ship report out there is confirming a wind shift. It is in location per NhC as well. Still has a way to go but this is first real signs of organizing.

[GCANE]

Looks like the dry slot is being eroded by the heavy convection west of the CoC.

[cycloneye]

Aric,a little to the northwest of where you have it.

12z Best Track:

Location: 28.7°N 86.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[GCANE]

Zoom in a look here. Partially exposed center. Still small and not all in the mid levels. The ship report out there is confirming a wind shift. It is in location per NhC as well. Still has a way to go but this is first real signs of organizing.

Looking at radar, there was some heavy cells firing off in that location and then ensuing rotation.
Looks like its liftoff time.

[p1nheadlarry]

Surface winds across the NE Gulf are still very light - 5-10 kts. Convection needs to build over a smaller area so that surface pressures will drop and winds will pick up. Not much evidence of any well-defined circulation offshore this morning. Could be a TD today, more likely tomorrow.

I think convection being broad and also over land plays a factor. Persistent convection leads to evaporative cooling and thus conditionally stable lapse rates over time so the deformation radius of our local vort max doesn’t shrink. Land might help increase stability since there’s less diabatic heating ongoing. Also with areas that have seen rain for the last day or two the diurnal temperature swings are probably reduced while land-atmosphere feedback continues to aid in moist energy transfer keeping convection broad.

Most of the convection is now over water so things should progress a little faster.

[Tailspin]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=srx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes then click on florida

South east may have coverage.
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site ... =Southeast

[SoupBone]

Anyone have a link for access to the paid Euro runs? (meaning I want to subscribe)

[daromaine]

So I’m supposed to fly out of Houston early early Monday am for a mission trip to Puerto Rico. Anyone with a best guess if if we’ll be going or not??

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148929132396470272

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1148741387590000641

[Nolachick504]

I live in NOLA the weather here is horrible. Some streets are already flooding. Lots of lightening, thunder and very heavy rain. There is no way the city can take on all this water.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs. Not much out there at the surface yet. Hard to pinpoint any LLC. Maybe by this evening.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1148939472484130822