ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Didn't take long for the organization to ramp up after this splashed down into those warm bath waters, will be an interesting first visible images this morning:

https://i.ibb.co/JQX249R/goes16-truecolor-92-L.gif

And given the environment its likely to bomb out.. lets hope it does soon so it has time to weaken while making landfall and not the other way around..

[Nimbus]

Surface obs offshore showing a developing circ right in the sweet spot from yesterday as mentioned. It is on its way and well offshore likely farther south than the models.

https://i.ibb.co/yP9yrt6/sgdsfnxfhn.png

Yup, can see it clearly with the buoy data right offshore (winds abruptly changed from NW to SSE):
https://i.imgur.com/sXaPs3W.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1


Data from station in Apalachicola, FL showing E winds at 1:30am and now straight N winds:
https://i.imgur.com/8Md02IK.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=apcf1

https://i.imgur.com/lI7d8is.jpg

yeah and on satellite it is the area of greatest curvatures and clearly a good mid level circ on top of it. so 12z models will be adjusted south quite a bit.

00Z HWRF 12 hour position is about where the mid level circulation should be. That model run is calling for a 950 mb hurricane to landfall in western Louisiana. So not only would they get a devastating flood event from rainfall totals over the Mississippi river watershed, they would get a wind event to the west.

LLC isn't supposed to stack under the mid level till later and further Southwest if Levi's speculation is correct.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if yhe NHC was like hey you random ship.. go through the middle of the convection please.. lol

[USTropics]

The UKMET may have been on to something when it showed rapid intensification from the onset:

Code: Select all

12UTC   11.07.2019   27.7N   88.8W   WEAK   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC   12.07.2019   27.7N   90.4W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   12.07.2019   27.7N   92.3W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   13.07.2019   27.8N   93.1W   STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC   13.07.2019   28.8N   94.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC   14.07.2019   30.0N   95.0W   STRONG   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   14.07.2019   31.4N   96.1W   STRONG   WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC   15.07.2019   32.9N   97.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   15.07.2019   34.3N   99.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   16.07.2019   35.8N   100.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Aric Dunn]

Yup, can see it clearly with the buoy data right offshore (winds abruptly changed from NW to SSE):
https://i.imgur.com/sXaPs3W.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1


Data from station in Apalachicola, FL showing E winds at 1:30am and now straight N winds:
https://i.imgur.com/8Md02IK.png
src: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=apcf1

https://i.imgur.com/lI7d8is.jpg

yeah and on satellite it is the area of greatest curvatures and clearly a good mid level circ on top of it. so 12z models will be adjusted south quite a bit.

00Z HWRF 12 hour position is about where the mid level circulation should be. That model run is calling for a 950 mb hurricane to landfall in western Louisiana. So not only would they get a devastating flood event from rainfall totals over the Mississippi river watershed, they would get a wind event to the west.

LLC isn't supposed to stack under the mid level till later and further Southwest if Levi's speculation is correct.

It won't take long to stack unless that wind shear shows up... but i fear my suspicion were correct(mentioned it previously) The large amount of convection has caused the upper high to re center itself... happens in cases like this.

[Aric Dunn]

The UKMET may have been on to something when it showed rapid intensification from the onset:

Code: Select all

12UTC   11.07.2019   27.7N   88.8W   WEAK   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC   12.07.2019   27.7N   90.4W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   12.07.2019   27.7N   92.3W   MODERATE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   13.07.2019   27.8N   93.1W   STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC   13.07.2019   28.8N   94.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC   14.07.2019   30.0N   95.0W   STRONG   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   14.07.2019   31.4N   96.1W   STRONG   WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC   15.07.2019   32.9N   97.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC   15.07.2019   34.3N   99.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC   16.07.2019   35.8N   100.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

Was only model that had the uppper ridge over the system from the onset..

[USTropics]

I noticed in the GFS runs, and to a degree the earlier ECMWF runs, they were having to resolve multiple ares of vorticity off to the east, slowing down development. I'm not seeing that this morning, more like a consolidation of vorticity in one locale. Visible imagery will shed more light in a few.

[KatDaddy]

I would not be surprised if we have our next TD by this evening in the NE GOM. Some of the models have shifted back W to SE TX overnight. Still many unknowns at this point thus continue being tropical weather aware and have a hurricane plan ready just in case its needed.

From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:

What does this mean for southeast Texas? Although a few of the models have come into a better agreement with the track forecast, uncertainty is still high concerning the direct impacts for the our local region. Possible impacts may include heavy rainfall, storm surge or minor coastal flooding, and/or tropical or hurricane force winds.

Best Case: If the system moves into the LA/MS coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would remain outside of SE Texas. Thus, a warmer and drier trend would be expected. Main impacts with this scenario would be possible high heat index values (maybe reaching Heat Advisory criteria) along with some convective activity over the local area.

Worst Case: If the system tracks further west and moves into the vicinity of the TX coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would move in or near SE Texas, or at least portions of it. Thus, a wetter forecast pattern would be expected over our local area. However, due to the uncertainty of the storm`s intensity, specific wind and rainfall values are unknown at this time.

The General Message: Uncertainty in regards of the development and track of the system continues. Regardless of development, now is the time to verify your hurricane preparedness plan with your family and neighbors. Continue to monitor your local NWS and NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding this system.

[Frank P]

With the system basically moving east to west upon early development, would not be surprised to see a large swath of watches posted by the NHC. Still some inconsistencies from the models which only exacerbates the difficulty of final landfall forecast. Like those storms the run south to north along the FL east coast. Will be interesting to see the initial watched area posted by the NHC along the gulf coast!

[USTropics]

The formation of a tropical system in 100 frames, brought to you by the GOM:

[Aric Dunn]

The formation of a tropical system in 100 frames, brought to you by the GOM:

https://cardse.net/i/2019/07/10/1fbe413fc508d5314278b226cb2a59d8.gif

Yep, happenung fast now.

[wxman57]

Surface winds across the NE Gulf are still very light - 5-10 kts. Convection needs to build over a smaller area so that surface pressures will drop and winds will pick up. Not much evidence of any well-defined circulation offshore this morning. Could be a TD today, more likely tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Clear evidence of organizing TD

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I see no evidence of a tropical system in the bay area. Just generally speaking, it looked worse monday morning. Pressure is actually up

[Dean4Storms]

Surface winds across the NE Gulf are still very light - 5-10 kts. Convection needs to build over a smaller area so that surface pressures will drop and winds will pick up. Not much evidence of any well-defined circulation offshore this morning. Could be a TD today, more likely tomorrow.

I agree, live here on the Beach just East of Destin and barely a breeze from the East. I see an elongated system that will take some time with sustained convection before it comes together. Maybe late today or tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

One thing of note here in Destin this morning we do have low level stratus moving fairly rapidly NE to SW which tells me the winds just above the surface are moving quicker than just a couple thousand feet down.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida,
is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical-
storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests
there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this
disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from
the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[ronjon]

Anyone have a long range composite from gulf radars ? Very interesting feature showing up straight west of tampa and can be seen on Tallahassee and eglin partly.

Try this Aric:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[GCANE]

3 UL Vorts.
If they stay far enough away, they could all help ventilate this puppy.