ATL: BARRY - Models

[MississippiWx]

Intensity guidance continues to creep up.

[mcheer23]

HWRF and HMON are finally running.

[Hurricane Andrew]

More flooding, eh? I wonder how many of my old USAR buddies will be rolling with this one.

[MississippiWx]

HWRF and HMON are finally running.

Hallelujah.

[South Texas Storms]

It's important to note that the average track forecast error by the NHC at 96 hours is 150 nautical miles. Just because the models look to have converged on LA today, it's still 96 hours away from landfall. Don't let your guard down yet if you live in TX or MS.

[TheProfessor]

The river levees haven't failed in modern times unlike the canals did. But that's pretty extreme with the runoff. Unreal precipitation. Looks like a 500-1000 year flood on the heels of the last one or 5 or 10. Hopefully we don't have a catastrophe beyond what it's sure to be. My guess is that 24" of water between the mouth of the river through the bayous and across the city and northshore and then Coastal Mississippi, you'd have to have something like 40-50k homes flooded. It's an ugly scenario. If anyone has pay EC and has the rainfall totals from the 12z for SELA/SMS, please post or drop me a pm.

Edit, didn't realize this was already posted.

[Frank P]

It's important to note that the average track forecast error by the NHC at 96 hours is 150 nautical miles. Just because the models look to have converged on LA today, it's still 96 hours away from landfall. Don't let your guard down yet if you live in TX or MS.

If it hits in SELA the MS coast will definitely feel some effects, so we never let our guard down until it’s well north of us!

[TheProfessor]

There are definitely some Euro ensembles that take the heaviest core of rain into Mississippi and Alabama, as well as some that take it into Houston and Galveston(Which would be a track through the mid Texas coast)

[pcolaman]

Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?

[MississippiWx]

Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?

Lol. Looks like the GFS circles future Barry back into almost the same exact place it is currently before attempting to redevelop it.

[Kingarabian]

Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?

Lol. Looks like the GFS circles future Barry back into almost the same exact place it is currently before attempting to redevelop it.

BRUH

[Steve]

lol the return of Ivan [tm] <-- biggest coup of the UKMET of all time

[Javlin]

9WHWRF a little faster than the HMON and stronger but not by much.The HWRF @60h symmetrical 81kts 27.5N 91W while HMON 27.8N 89.1W 70kts loose they both looked liked the W movement basically stopped.

[TheStormExpert]

Intensity guidance continues to creep up.

https://i.imgur.com/BvqE73k.png

The consensus TVCN model the NHC closely follows when making intensity forecasts only calls for a moderate to strong TS at landfall.

[ColdMiser123]

HMON makes landfall in eastern Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, ~990 pressure.

HWRF shows RI, will make landfall in western Louisiana with <945 pressure.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lol the HWRF is more nuts than the 4k NAM.

[shiny-pebble]

HWRF Landfall @943 mb

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[MississippiWx]

HMON makes landfall in eastern Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, ~990 pressure.

HWRF shows RI, will make landfall in western Louisiana with <945 pressure.

HWRF doing HWRF things. 943mb with 130kt+ winds at 850mb.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF...

[Steve]

HWRF at 84: